Canelo vs. Golovkin = 50-50 fight says Guerrero

By Boxing News - 10/27/2016 - Comments


By Dan Ambrose: Welterweight contender Robert Guerrero says he sees the potential fight between middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (36-0, 33 KOs) and Golden Boy star Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) as a 50-50 fight that could go either way at this point.

Guerrero bases his opinion on how Canelo and Golovkin looked in their last two fights. Guerrero saw how Golovkin was hit a lot in his recent fight against welterweight Kell Brook on September 10 last month.

Guerrero says that Golovkin doesn’t move his head to avoid shots, and he can’t do that against Canelo, because he’s got a lot of punching power, and he’s slick.

In fairness to Golovkin, he said after the Brook fight that he intentionally turned the fight into a street fight after noticing that Brook couldn’t hurt him with his punches. Golovkin chose to ignore Brook’s shots so that he could force him into a brawl, and chop him down, which is exactly what Triple G did in the fight.

Golovkin stalked Brook around the ring, nailing him with big shots each time he would stop running. Golovkin stepped up the pressure beginning in the 3rd, which was more or less the beginning of the end for Brook, because he seemed to go into a panic mode once Golovkin increased the pressure on him.

Guerrero said this to about the Canelo vs. Golovkin fight:

“You know what? Canelo’s looking good, man,” said Guerrero. “Triple G, he looked good in his last fight [against Kell Brook], but he got hit with a lot of punches. I noticed that he’s a really good boxer. His defensive skills aren’t that good. He didn’t move his head or anything. You’ve got to have some defensive skills with Canelo. He can punch, and he’s pretty slick. We’ll see what happens. I think it’s going to be a very good fight. Looking at their last two fights, I think it’ll be a pick ‘em fight,” said Guerrero.

Based off how Canelo and Golovkin did in their last two fights, I think it’s an easy knockout for Golovkin. Canelo looked terrible against Amir Khan in getting out-boxed in the first five rounds. He won the fight by a 6th round knockout, but that was because Khan’s punches resistance is low.

Had Khan been able to take a punch, I think he easily beats Canelo. But with the way the judges were giving Canelo round after round, I think he probably would have won a controversial decision over Khan just like he did against Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout.

Canelo looked tired in his win over Liam Smith last September, and he needed to rest on the ropes quite a bit. If that had been Golovkin in the ring that night, I don’t think Canelo would have lasted more than four rounds. Triple G wouldn’t have given Canelo any rest breaks the way that the limited Liam Smith was.

That was a poor fighter Canelo was fighting despite Golden Boy Promotions CEO Oscar De La Hoya claiming that Smith was the best fighter in the 154lb division. That was a joke. Smith is probably no better than No.10 in the division if that. Canelo beat a handpicked opponent in Liam Smith, and he didn’t look good.

I think Robert Guerrero is going to find out how wrong his opinion is of the Canelo-Golovkin fight if the two of them face each other next year in September 2017 like what Golden Boy is saying will happen. I personally don’t see Golovkin getting a shot against Canelo until he shows signs of being over-the-hill. I don’t think you can even put a year on it, because it’s not a situation where you say that the fight will definitely happen in 2017 or 2018.

I see it being based on how shot Golovkin is. He’s 34 right now, and with the way he punched Brook into submission last September, I believe that Golden Boy will deem Golovkin too dangerous for the time being. I see them taking it year by year in appraising whether Golovkin is ripe enough for Canelo to pick. It’ll be a joke if Golden Boy waits until 2020 or later for the fight to happen, but I think that’s a definite possibility if Golovkin is still knocking out everybody in sight.

Kell Brook did little more than run around the ring against Golovkin. He wasn’t standing his ground for any length of time in any round. It was a case of Brook moving until being caught. He would then either throw a few deparate shots or clinch to try and top Golovkin.

It worked to Brook’s benefit to limit some of the punishment he took, but it wasn’t a game-winning plan that could last. When Golovkin stepped up the pressure to a feverish pace in the 4th, the writing was on the wall that the fight was soon going to be over. Brook got away with a 3rd round knockdown that he clearly suffered. He got hit by a big left hook to the head that dropped him. Golovkin saw that was legit but the referee Marlon Wright said it was a slip.

In looking at the knockdown in slow motion, you can see Brook getting hit hard by a left hook to the head that bowled him over. It should have been a knockdown, but the referee blew the call. In hindsight, it didn’t matter, but it showed what Golovkin was up against in the fight with a referee missing an important call, the judges giving Brook round after round.

One judge had Brook winning 3 rounds to 1 at the time of the stoppage, and the other two judges had it two rounds a piece. HBO’s unofficial scorer Harold Lederman had Golovkin up 3 rounds to 1 at the time of the stoppage. The only round that Brook won on his scorecard was the 2nd.

I would be great if Golden Boy let’s Canelo fight Golovkin in 2017, but I don’t think so. If Canelo loses to Golovkin now, it would be bad news for his career, and that’s why I think Golden Boy won’t let the fight happen until Golovkin starts looking like a shot fighter.