By Scott Gilfoid: Derry Mathews (38-10-2, 20 KOs) is really up against it tonight in facing A-side fighter Luke Campbell (14-1, 11 KOs) in lightweight action at the Echo Arena in Liverpool, England.
Campbell is the World Boxing Council Silver lightweight champion, which means absolutely nothing, because it’s not a major title. However, the 29-year-old Campbell is the one that is being given a major push towards a world title. He’s the one with the cache in this fight, as he’s a 2012 Olympic gold medalist from the UK. As such, you can argue that Mathews will be starting the fight tonight six rounds in the hole.
Immediately from the get go, the 33-year-old Mathews has to be seen as trailing badly in the fight and needing to win very round to have a chance of winning the match in my opinion. Mathews isn’t going to get the decision win over the A-side fighter like Campbell unless he does something truly spectacular like knocking him down three to six times in the fight. Dropping Campbell twice might not be enough, because if the judges are giving him round after round, he’ll be able to still win.
Mathews can definitely win tonight against Campbell if he takes the judges out of the equation. He needs a knockout though.
Here are the keys to victory for Mathews:
– Pressure Campbell nonstop for the full three minutes of every round
– Focus on throwing a lot of head shots at Campbell, because he has problems with his punch resistance
– Don’t let Campbell dictate the pace of the fight.
– Keep the action in close. Don’t let Campbell use his longer reach on the outside.
– Turn the fight into a war. Campbell still has an amateur style of fighting, and he doesn’t like it when he’s forced to brawl. We saw that in his loss to Yvan Mendy last year. Campbell crumbles when he’s pressured and hit with a lot of head shots.
#6 WBC Campbell is within eyesight of his first world title shot against the winner of the contest between Jorge Linares vs. Dejan Zlaticanin. Those are tough fighters, but Campbell might have a chance of winning a belt against the winner of that fight if he can get the match at home in the UK, and IF he doesn’t get knocked out or dropped several times. I don’t think Campbell beat either of those guys, but stranger things have happened. Campbell might get lucky if he can make it the full 12 rounds, especially if the fights in the UK.
As for tonight’s fight, you have to give Mathews a puncher’s chance of beating Campbell. Mathews has got the better power, he’s got the better chin, and he’s been in plenty of wars in the past to prove himself as a strong world class fighter.
There are still a lot of question marks over the head of the 29-year-old Campbell, especially since his 12 round split decision loss to Yvan Mendy last year. Campbell was dropped by Mendy and dominated. Campbell was knocked down HARD in his last fight against a past his best 30-year-old Argenis Mendez last July. Campbell would have been knocked out in that fight if Mendez hadn’t suddenly stopped throwing punches after dropping Campbell in round two.
I’ve heard of fighters easing off before, but it was ridiculous the way that Mendez did. Talk about getting a lucky break. Campbell was VERY lucky that Mendez completely stopped punching for the remainder of the fight after knocking Campbell down. I hate to say it, but Mendez showed clearly in that fight that Campbell doesn’t have a future as a top level fighter. He can be a good fringe level guy and trinket title holding champion, but not a true world champion. The chin just isn’t there for Campbell.
If Campbell was still in the amateur ranks with head gear to protect him in short three-round fights, I think he’d be almost unbeatable. Campbell could bounce around the ring, tapping his opponents with light shots with the white portion of his gloves, and winning decisions. But in the pro ranks, Campbell does not have the chin, power or the talent to be a true world class guy. That’s my view of him. However, with Campbell fighting at home in the UK, he could get lucky and win a controversial decision one of these days to win a world title. You can only go so far if you don’t have the actual talent though. I mean, you can’t win controversial decisions over and over again year after year.
WBC cruiserweight champion Tony Bellew, who will be fighting in the main event tonight against BJ Flores, had this to say to skysports.com about the Campbell vs. Mathews fight tonight:
“Against Mathews he is going to need to be on it technically, mentally and physically. I think they can both hit hard and I honestly can’t see this being a points victory, just a KO – for either man. It will be a very close fight and the boxing skills lie with Luke but I just think the power for a stoppage lies with Mathews and that right hand.”
Well, Bellew is right about Mathews’ right hand being the key for him in this fight. His right hand can be the decider for him if he can land it often enough in this fight. Mathews needs to go out there and look to knock Campbell’s block off so that it doesn’t go to the scorecards, because Mathews has too many losses on his resume for him to get the nod on the judges’ scorecards in my view.
Prediction
I think Campbell may win if Mathews can’t get the knockout. I see the judges giving Campbell ALL the close rounds, and even rounds that seem to be Mathews’ rounds. Campbell is the younger guy with the Olympic gold medal, and I think that counts for a lot in the scoring by judges. After seeing the oddball scoring in Campbell’s loss to Mendy last year in which one judge gave him the win, I think Campbell is hard to beat by decision, especially by someone with 10 losses on his resume like Mathews.