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Froch expects Brook to beat Golovkin

Carl Froch Gennady Golovkin Kell Brook Golovkin vs. Brook

By Scott Gilfoid: Carl Froch, sporting his new surgically reduced nose, says he thinks unbeaten Kell Brook (36-0, 25 KOs) can pull off the upset this Saturday night against IBF/IBO/WBA/WBC middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (35-0, 32 KOs) this Saturday night at the O2 Arena in London, England. Froch points out that Golovkin appears to be ill with some kind of virus possibly and he looked weary at today’s weigh-in for the fight.

Froch notes that Brook is VERY confident, and full of energy. He’s also about the same size as Triple G, says Froch. Still, Froch believes that Brook will need to fight the perfect fight for him to have a chance of winning. If he messes up on his tactics, then he’ll lose the match. Froch suggests that Brook focus on using movement and speed early on so that he can avoid getting hit by Golovkin.

Froch thinks that Brook’s best chance is to drag the fight into the deeper rounds to get the victory. It makes sense from a tactical standpoint for Brook to be trying not to get hit early, because if Golovkin really is ill, then by dragging the fight into the deeper rounds, it increases the chances that he’s going to wear down physically. The problem with that strategy is that if Brook is going to be only jabbing in the first eight or nine rounds, then he’s going to lose every round, because Golovkin will surely be nailing him with his harder shots. Unless the three judges are clueless, they’ll be giving all the rounds to Golovkin if he’s the only one throwing power shots. I mean, Brook isn’t going to beat Golovkin by jabbing him; not if he’s getting nailed by hard body and heat shots. I don’t care how ill Golovkin is. He’s still going to be a monster puncher on the night.

“He didn’t look happy, did he, Golovkin?” said Froch to IFL TV about Golovkin at today’s weigh-in. “He looked a bit ill. He’s in against an unbeaten fighter who’s really fired up in Kell Brook. He’s getting booed, and he’s probably not used to getting booed. He’s a long way from home. He [Brook] was pumping his chest. He looks very confident, Kell Brook. It’s good to see. Is Kell Brook big enough? He looks big enough. They look size-wise like they belong in the ring together. I’m confident for Kell Brook, more confident than I was. I think he can do it. Golovkin is probably the massive favorite, a big puncher. Can Kell Brook take the power? We don’t know what’s going to happen once he starts getting hit. We’re going to find out. He didn’t look happy, Golovkin. Kell Brook can take a lot of positives from the way Golovkin looked at the buildup to this, and how he looked [at the weigh-in]. Apparently, he has a virus or he’s ill. Now he looks a bit miserable on the scales. It’s not going to matter on the night if Kell doesn’t perform. He’s got to use his speed and range. His timing has got to be smack on. 36 fights and unbeaten, so he’ll be coming in confident. But he’s in against Golovkin, a monster puncher. He’s not just a monster puncher, Golovkin. He can fight as well,” said Froch.

So, Froch thinks Brook is going to beat Golovkin on Saturday, eh? I wonder if Froch is basing his prediction on Golovkin being ill or if this is something he had decided long ago. The fact that Froch also thinks that middleweight Chris Eubank Jr. can do the job on Golovkin as well tells me that he might have decided ahead of time that Brook would beat Golovkin even if he was at his best. I have a hard time taking Froch seriously after hearing him say that BOTH Brook and Eubank Jr. can beat Golovkin. I could understand if Froch said Brook might win, because Golovkin looked quite ill today and on Thursday for the final press conference. But with Froch saying that Eubank Jr. can also beat Golovkin, I have to ignore Froch’s prediction. I’m just surprised that Froch didn’t start rattling off other names like Billy Joe Saunders, Andy Lee and John Ryder as guys that would beat Golovkin too. I mean, Froch was really on a roll here with him saying that Brook and Eubank Jr. might beat Golovkin.

It appears to me thay Froch is more hopeful than certain about Brook’s chances of beating Golovkin. It’s such a huge step up in class for Brook to be taking in facing a guy like Golovkin. All you need to is look at Brook’s dreadful resume, which is littered with 12 years of poor opponents to know how big of a step up this is for him. Brook has been spinning his wheel’s career-wise for the last 12 years, and he only has that one fight against Shawn Porter to show for it. All the rest of the guys that Brook has faced have been names like Matthew Hatton, Kevin Bizier, Jo Jo Dan, and Frankie Gavin. I hate to say it, but Brook has been more of a European level champion than a world champion lately. He’s not been facing world level opposition during his career with the exception of his one fight against Shawn Porter. Brook didn’t really fight that guy. He held him for 12 rounds. That tactic is probably not going to work out too well for Brook on Saturday night, because he’s going to need to actually fight Golovkin if he wants to beat him. Holding for 12 rounds or running from him probably isn’t going to get the job done. Besides, it’ll just make Brook look bad in front of all the boxing fans that will be assembled at the O2 Arena to watch him. If Brook loses and looks timid in the eyes of the fans, it’ll be worse for him than if he went down in a brave manner by trying to punch it out. Sadly, I think Brook won’t care how bad he looks. I expect him to fight timidly by holding and running for 12 rounds like he did against Porter.

In speaking about a potential Golovkin vs. Chris Eubank Jr. fight in the future, Froch said, “I think it’s a good fight for Eubank Jr., because Eubank is obviously one hell of a fighter at middleweight and I think he can do the business against Golovkin. He’s got a good chance of winning.

“We’re talking Kell Brook vs. Golovkin, and it’s a tough task, but he can do it as well,” said Froch. “I don’t know if he’s going to be able to punch hard enough to hurt Golovkin to take him out early. As soon as Kell Brook starts getting hit by Golovkin, that could be the end for him. I think he would concentrate on not getting hit. I think he needs to box and move, and take it late. It’s a dangerous fight for him, and a difficult fight for him to win. If he can pick the right tactics for 12 rounds, he could pull it off. If Kell Brook beats Golovkin, it would be one of the biggest upsets in British boxing in recent years because nobody expects him to win,” said Froch.

It’s going to be difficult for Brook to elude Golovkin for 12 rounds without being seen as running from him. Golovkin is so good at cutting off the ring. Even if he’s ill tomorrow night, I don’t expect him to have forgotten how to cut off the ring. He’ll know how to do it, and it’ll force Brook to make a decision whether to fight or to revert to form by choosing to clinch like mad like he did against Shawn Porter. Future events cast their shadows before, so I expect Brook do what he did in the past in his only tough fight of his career against Porter by electing to grab Golovkin each time he gets cornered. Brook’s loyal boxing fans like to say that the only reason he chose to hold Porter so often was because he came forward with his head down, but I don’t buy that for a second. Brook’s own promoter Eddie Hearn said that the constant clinching was part of the plan for the Porter fight. So if it was part of the plan, then you can’t say that Brook was doing it because Porter’s head was down as he was coming forward. They were doing it to slow down Porter’s punch output to the point where each round was decided on a tiny handful of punches being landed. There could only be a tiny amount of punches landed in each round because Brook was tying Porter up and stalling out the rounds. If Brook chooses to do that against Golovkin, it’s going to be interesting to see what he does and what the referee does to stop this rule-bending strategy. When a referee is ignoring blatant stuff like excessive clinching, head-butts, low blows and rabbit punches, then you have to assume they’re not competent. Hopefully, we have a referee that is actually going to do his job on Saturday night, because this could get very, very ugly if Brook chooses to spoil like mad by holding.

Brook weighed in heavier than Golovkin at Friday’s weigh-in in coming in at 159.4lbs compared to Golovkin’s 158.9. It was a tactical error on Golovkin’s part to come in so light for the fight, because he could have been heavier.

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