By Dan Ambrose: In something of an odd move, World Boxing Organization junior middleweight champion Liam Smith (23-0-1, 13 KOs) and the Golden Boy Promotions flagship fighter Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (47-1-1, 33 KOs) will NOT be taking part in the drug testing from Voluntary Anti-Doping Association (VADA) for their upcoming fight next month on September 17 on HBO pay-per-view at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
It’s too bad there won’t be drug testing for the Canelo-Smith fight, because I think it helps when boxing fans know that the testing is being done. Neither of these fighters have ever been under suspicion for using performance enhancing drugs in the past, but it would still be nice if the testing had been done.
There are reports that there isn’t enough time for the testing to take place. It’s still hard to understand why there wouldn’t be testing for the fight unless it was a cost thing. If Golden Boy wanted to save money, then not having the VADA testing might be one way to save a little money.
While Golden Boy Promotions CEO Oscar De La Hoya has been talking up the Canelo-Smith fight, saying it’s projected to bring in more ticket sales and better pay-per-view numbers than the Manny Pacquiao vs. Antonio Margarito fight from 2010 on HBO PPV from Texas Stadium, there are many in the boxing world who have doubts whether the fight will bring in a lot of money.
They see the Canelo-Smith fight as a dumb idea, and a fight that is doomed to poor revenue. Cutting costs by not having the expensive VADA testing might be one way of saving money for the promotion. Less advertising of the fight might be another. There wasn’t a long promotional tour for the two fighters like there have been for bigger fights.
The promotional tours cost a lot of money, but you can argue that they also help make fights successful. Of course, if you’ve got an opponent that simply won’t sell like many boxing fans see Liam Smith, then it probably doesn’t matter how many cities you visit with a promotional tour. You’re not going to interest the fans by peddling this kind of fight. It’s just perceived as a mismatch in the eyes of many boxing fans.
You can make a very, very strong argument that Canelo vs. Smith shouldn’t have been put on pay-per-view in the first place on HBO. By having unworthy fights being sold on PPV, it’s something that is by some as greedy money grab, because PPV is meant for big fights, important fights, and fights that the fans want to see. Does Canelo vs. Smith fit into any of those categories? I’d say no. It’s just a fight. Smith is a champion in name only right now, and he’s not seen as the best fighter in the 154lb division despite what Canelo’s promoter Oscar De La Hoya says about him being the best.
If the VADA testing was cut to save money, then what does that tell you about Canelo-Smith? It suggests to me that the fight isn’t doing nearly as well as De La Hoya makes it out to be. De La Hoya is projecting that the fight will sell between 50,000 to 60,000 tickets and will bring in over 1 million PPV buys on HBO.
It’s hard to believe those rosy projections when you see the expensive VADA testing being scrapped. I personally don’t think the Canelo vs. Smith fight will sell more than 15,000 tickets under even the best circumstances. I think there will be a lot of fans in the AT&T Stadium though on September 17, albeit from having been given complimentary tickets to help fill the stadium up.
If the ticket prices are slashed in the final day of the fight, then there might be a decent walk up crowd that will show up to purchase tickets at bargain basement prices, but that’s about it. I don’t see 50,000 to 60,000 tickets being sold for the Canelo vs. Smith fight, and I definitely don’t agree that the fight will bring in 1 million PPV buys.
I think we’re probably looking at a fight that will bring in around 300,000 PPV buys at the most. That’s the number that Canelo has been bringing in for his fights against Alfredo Angulo and Erislndy Lara. Since Liam Smith isn’t as well-known as those guys, and arguably not as good as them, it’s possible that the Canelo-Smith fight could fail to even reach 300,000 buys on HBO.
The good news is that if the fight does bring in poor pay-per-view numbers on HBO, then we could see Canelo potentially facing better competition in the future. I’m not holding my breath waiting for that to happen though, especially with the rumors of him fighting WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders in December. But I think there’s a chance that Golden Boy will realize that they’re hurting their golden goose by matching him against poor opposition and killing his popularity in the process.
It’s like with anything. Even in music, if you have a popular recording artist that puts in flop after flop of bad music, the fans eventually drift away to start listening to newer stuff that is more pleasing. Those fans lose interest in the once popular recording artist because they’re no longer putting out the stuff that they want to hear. I think it’ll be the same with Canelo. If Golden Boy keeps putting the 26-year-old Canelo Alvarez in with opposition that the boxing public doesn’t want to see him in against, then they’ll be slowing killing off their golden goose’s popularity. I see it as a race to the bottom. When you play it safe with your golden goose, you slowly erode his popularity. You’re fighter will keep winning, yes, but it will eventually cause him to lose fans.
“There is no doubt that Canelo is today already the biggest boxing star in Mexico and the United States,” said De La Hoya. “He is in the process of crossing over as a worldwide superstar, but he will never forget where he came from and the rich boxing tradition of Mexico.”
I think De La Hoya is hurting Canelo’s popularity with his safe match-making against weak opponents like Amir Khan, Angulo, James Kirkland and now Liam Smith. We’ll likely see Canelo matched against Billy Joe Saunders next after the Smith fight. It’s poor match-making.