By Bob Smith: On the one hand, a boxing fan may have dreams for a competitive middleweight title fight between two equally matched competitors at or near their prime; one can wish and pine and develop fantasies and projections to try to bridge the gap. However, the unfortunate fact is that Saturday’s fight between WBC middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Amir Khan is a very grave mismatch.
It makes sense from a business and ego point of view for Khan. He will make $13 million and finally get to fight an A class fighter while he is still in his boxing prime – the years of agonizing waiting and negotiations for either Manny Pacquaio or Floyd Mayweather clearly have taken their toll in his thought process. He is also correct that he is the better boxer pound for pound than Canelo, and also that Canelo is not as good a boxer as Pacquaio or Mayweather.
The problem is that Canelo is simply too big and too strong for Khan. Canelo is a natural compact super middleweight, kind of a Mexican Curtis Stevens, save he has more boxing skill, talent, charisma, popular appeal, and experience. He also is the hardest puncher in the 154 pound division. His major skill and talent, for me, however, is that he can drain so much weight off of his body and come in so much bigger on the day of the fight. For his actual weight class, super middleweight, he is nowhere near the top 20; for middleweight, he is definitely top 10, but I just don’t see him beating a Gennady Golovkin or a Quillin. Of course, he is the best in the 154 pound weight class.
Nevertheless, despite all of this, I’ve become a fan of Canelo, for despite the hype, and Golovkin notwithstanding, he takes on the biggest challenges and finds a way to win. While it is true that until 2010, he has fought only second tier fighters, he won by KO against both Cintron and Baldomir; granted, they were not in their primes, but it says something for a fighter to beat both of them. He also beat Shane Mosley, who referred to him as “a complete fighter” and he has only gotten better since then. Of course, there was the Mayweather defeat, but he edged out both Trout and Lara (I had a narrow victory for Canelo over Trout, due in part due to the open scoring, and a draw against Lara). He also defeated tough contender-level fighters Angulo and Kirkland in impressive fashion.
What has Khan done compared to this? Really, nothing notable. Though he did have impressive wins over Zab Judah and Marcos Maidana, this was at the 140 pound weight class, which is a world of difference away from 155+, and an opponent who will come in between 168 and 180. There was the fight which should have been a victory or a draw with Lamont Peterson, then the Garcia KO. And really, Garcia is not the biggest puncher in the light-welterweight division. In fact, all of his fights at welterweight have been UD decision victories, against B+ level competition. His power has not carried up to welterweight, and now he thinks of fighting the hardest punching 154 pound fighter, and perhaps top 10 or even top 5 of the middleweight division?
Yes, “he is fast” “he has boxing skills and an impressive pedigree”, and really that would help him against a normal elite welterweight competitor like Kell Brook or Robert Guerrero or Adrien Broner. I don’t think that Khan can handle the power of Porter or Thurman, and would get knocked out cold by both of them. There is no question in my mind that Errol Spence would knock him out also.
How then will the fight go? I expect Khan to start well, and clearly win two of the first three rounds as he overwhelms Canelo with this speed and brilliant combinations and also footwork. However, timing beats speed, as we saw in the Garcia fight, and Canelo will eventually time Khan and hurt him in the 4th round or so, and from there it will be over quickly. I don’t see Khan lasting for more than two rounds after he seriously gets caught. So, in the end, I think that the KO/TKO happens sooner rather than later in the 5th round. I can see the fight going all the way into the 8th or maybe even the 9th, but I just don’t think Khan has it in him to maintain focus on his game plan and to physically be able to move well after he is tagged by Canelo.
In an alternate universe, Canelo would be exposed as a flat-footed fighter who has taken advantage of catch-weight limits, carefully selected opponents, a compliant boxing press, and various structural advantages, such as holding matches in Texas with open scoring, clear instances of favoritism from judges, and so forth. In this scenario, Khan would use dazzling footwork, carefully chosen combinations, lightening speed, and skillful planing to endure and dodge the counter punches of Canelo and put on a boxing clinic.
However, Khan is not the person, and this is not the place or time to do this however. Canelo is the legitimate best 154 pound fighter, with Lara a very close second, and Canelo beats most of the top middleweights and is competitive with all but Golovkin. In reality, in this match up Khan is the paper tiger, and will collect his paycheck and moment of glory before he goes back to reality and the 147 division. Let’s hope than the knockout or stoppage is not too brutal, and that Khan can make a good showing while the fight lasts.