By Dan Ambrose: Unlike a lot of boxing fans who see this month’s clash between WBC middleweight champion Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs) as a bout that will end with destructive KO at some point, WBC President Mauricio Suliaman believes the fight will be a close match due to the meticulous preparation involved by both fighters and their camps.
While Suliaman believes that it’ll ultimate be a brawl, he still sees it as a close fight.
“I feel that it [Cotto vs. Canelo] will be a close match,” Suliaman said to wbcboxing.com. “Preparation will be fundamental and the way they execute everything inside the ring will also be so important. The opposing corners will be crucial during the bout.”
I don’t agree with Suliaman about this fight. I think it’s a fight that will quickly get out of hand due to Cotto’s powerful jab and explosive punching power. Cotto is the better puncher of the two by far, and he has a way of turning close fights into mismatches very quickly.
Look at Cotto’s recent fights against Daniel Geale, Sergio Martinez and Delvin Rodriguez. Initially, the fights were slow for the most part except for the Sergio Martinez, which was a mismatch from the 1st round. But once Cotto got warmed up, he quickly obliterated Geale and Rodriguez.
Canelo, 25, leaves himself open too much when he comes forward with his face first style of attacking. That style of fighting may have worked well for boxing great Julio Cesar Chavez, but I don’t think it’s going to be effective for the Mexican star Canelo, because it’s going to lead to him taking way too many head shots from the powerful Cotto, and I don’t think Canelo is going to be able to take those head shots without collapsing on the canvas in a heap.
Canelo was hurt in his fights against Floyd Mayweather Jr. and James Kirkland. Neither of those fighters have the kind of explosive punching power that Cotto has, or the accuracy. If and when Cotto hurts Canelo, I think he’s going to quickly finish him off with a small flurry of perfectly aimed punches to the head and body.
What Canelo does when he’s hurt, he retreats to the ropes like a wounded Elk and tries to cover up. Canelo makes it so clear when he’s been hurt. It’s always the same thing. He’s like his brothers when they’re hurt in the ring. They fly back to the ropes and try and cover up instead of looking to clinch or move around the ring to minimize the shots from their opponents.
In Canelo’s fight against Austin Trout two years ago, Trout hurt Canelo with a body shot midway through the fight. In a predictable manner, Canelo retreated to the ropes and covered up. But instead of getting off the ropes at some point, Canelo stayed there for the entire second half of the fight.
That body shot from Trout seems to have taken the courage from Canelo in the last six rounds of the fight, making him fight scared. That’s why I had Trout winning the fight. I couldn’t give Canelo more than one round in the last half of the fight because he was fighting off the ropes in a defensive posture and looking too afraid to mix it up.
If you watch Cotto’s fights, he tears apart his opponents when they backup to the ropes when they’re hurt.
“I don’t think so, as both fighters always get prepared well, meticulously building up to their fights,” Suliaman said. “I consider this as one of the biggest fights of the last few years. It’s clear that the storied rivalry between Puerto Rico and Mexico is an additional element. Experience and guile will clash with strength and youth,” Suliaman said.
I honestly don’t think Cotto and Canelo will be thinking too much about the Puerto Rico-Mexico rivalry when they get inside the ring on November 21st at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. The two fighters are professionals, and when they start getting nailed with punches, I think the last thing they’ll be thinking about is the historic rivalry between Mexico and Puerto Rico.
They won’t have time to bother with all that historical stuff, because it’ll be about combat, tactics and survival. Canelo’s punches won’t be any more significant for Cotto than punches thrown at him in the past from other fighters looking to take his head off.
I think will be more important than the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry will be Cotto’s innate toughness. I think he’s a tougher fighter than Canelo, and can take more punishment without flinching and running to the ropes like a wounded bear. Cotto won’t fall apart when he takes some big punches. He’ll stay in the pocket and keep his wits about him, and not lose his senses completely by falling apart mentally and going into a full scale retreat like we’ve seen Canelo do in the past when he gets hit hard.
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