Roach expects Cotto to rearrange Canelo’s face
By Dan Ambrose: Trainer Freddie Roach thinks that Saul “Canelo” Alvarez’s face might not look too good after his fighter WBC middleweight champion Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) gets done working him over this month in their fight on HBO PPV on November 21st. Roach doesn’t really have a lot of bad things to say about the 25-year-old Canelo, but he doesn’t believe he has the experience to beat the 35-year-old Cotto.
The experience that Canelo has had in the past has been in controversial wins over Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout, and a one-sided defeat at the hands of Floyd Mayweather Jr.
“He’s [Canelo] still young. He has youth,” Roach said to RingTV.com. “He has a good right hand, and has knockout power in that right hand and he comes to fight. I just wonder how handsome he’ll be after the fight. I really think this will be the best fight of the year,” Roach said.
Canelo will be there for Cotto’s jab all night long, and I don’t see how Cotto will be able to miss with it. Canelo comes forward like a red crab, and he’s there to be hit at all times. Cotto doesn’t need to necessarily get in the pocket with Canelo to trade with him, because he’s got a jab like a power punch. I think Cotto’s jab a lone will rearrange Canelo’s face in this fight at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada.
If you look at Canelo’s fights, he generates most of his punching power when his opponents are at close to medium range. If you study Canelo’s fights, he’s at his best when his opponents are close enough for him to land his shots. He can’t fight well on the outside because of his short arms and his inability to get leverage on his shots at a distance. Canelo will basically be at the mercy of Cotto all night long if he’s smart and chooses to fight him at a distance.
That’s why it’s important that Canelo tries to stalk Canelo to get him close enough to land his big power shots. If that fails to happen, then I agree with Roach that Cotto is going to turn Canelo’s face into a mess by the end of the night.
“He’s [Cotto] rededicated himself and he’s a better fighter now than he’s ever been because he has a coach he can trust and I have a fighter I can trust,” Roach said about Cotto. “Canelo’s youth will help him to a certain point, but after that point, we will take over,” Roach said. “I promise you we will take over.”
I’m in agreement with Roach with Canelo initially doing well. He’ll be good for three rounds, but after that, Cotto will take over the fight and never look bad. Canelo will be rehydrating from 155 to likely 175, and I think the huge weight gain in terms of water weight will wear him down in the 2nd half of the fight in the same way it did with Brandon Rios last Saturday night.
Rios put on 23 pounds from 147 to 170lbs after rehydrating, and he was useless due to all the water weight he put back on. I see the same thing with Canelo. He’ll be strong for the first quarter of the fight, and then he’ll fade badly in the last three-fourths of the contest because of all the water weight he put back on.
Canelo needs to be fighting at 160 or better yet at super middleweight, because he’s too heavy to be draining down to 155lbs to fight guys like Cotto.