By Bob Smith: Though the upcoming bout between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and WBC middleweight champion Miguel Cotto will be a good one, I think Cotto has the edge, mainly due to an excellent article here by one of my favorite authors.
http://www.boxingnews24.com/2015/06/cotto-vs-canelo-the-best-fight-in-boxing/
The article enumerates the advantages of Cotto, which are pretty much everything other than youth and power.
On the other hand, GGG appears to be unstoppable, which in turn reminds me of a prescient article, by, ironically, the very same author:
http://www.boxingnews24.com/2014/10/is-golovkin-too-good-for-his-own-good/
and
http://www.boxingnews24.com/2013/05/golovkin-will-be-on-the-pound-for-pound-list-within-5-weeks/
Why then do I say that only Canelo can go twelve rounds with GGG? Well, GGG and his team have called out everyone between 154 and 168, though they have no backtracked to say that they want to clean out the middleweight division first. At 154, other than Canelo, the only fighter with a possible chance is Lara, but after GGG handled Willie Monroe Jr. with ease, Lara has been strangely quiet perhaps realizing that he could not do any better. Isn’t funny how that victory has closed the mouth of Lara?
This brings us to the 160 pound division. While there are some solid B+ fighters who are eager to fight Golovkin, such as Chris Eubank Jr. and Tureano Johnson, the A level fighters like Quillin and Cotto stand far clear of him and make excuses. And they are realistic in their actions, for they have much to lose in terms of face, money, and prestige with a devastating KO at the hands of GGG. Let’s be honest, in 10,000 years Cotto would never agree to face Golovkin at 160, the legitimate middleweight fighting weight, due primarily to fear, though he is a legitimate hall of famer.
What then about the 168 pound division? Carl Froch retired, in part due to good sense, and in part to duck Golovkin. I view Andre Ward as the greatest threat to Golovkin, but Ward can no longer make 168 pounds. Who then will beat Golovkin, Badou Jack or Arthur Abraham? Neither has the skill or the power to compete, and Abraham has only an inferior form of power and much less skill. Perhaps Andre Dirrell might be able to go 12 rounds, but that is an open question.
While it is true that Andre Ward at a weight between 168 and 172 would have the advantage against Golovkin, and probably have a better than 50/50 chance of victory, since he is out of the 168 pound division, the question is not relevant until either Golovkin decides to move up to 168 and then to 175 or Andre Ward can actually make weight.
Only Canelo then is left. One advantage Canelo would have is that undoubtedly he would attempt to drain GGG of weight to 155, despite the fact that he fights on fight night between 165 and 175. Another is simply his body type and chin – he has been hurt in the past, but never knocked down, and he has not even come close to going down either. He has sparred successfully with GGG in the past, and performed better than Chavez Jr. despite the latter having a reputation for an iron chin.
However, the other reason Canelo has a chance is he has the combination of skill, speed and power that no one else from 154 to 160 has – while Cotto definitely has more skill and technique, and will probably win at that basis, he does not have the speed or power of Canelo. I think GGG is hittable, and while GGG has overcome heavy punchers and taken their best shots, he has not faced the blazing combinations of Canelo yet.
If that fight does happen sometime next year, I see the referee or the corner of Canelo stopping it sometime between the 6th and 10th rounds. However, I don’t see Canelo getting knocked down by GGG, just losing the capacity to fight back and not being able to punch back. It would be a good fight even at 155 and I look forward to seeing it, regardless of what happens between Canelo and Cotto.
And perhaps if Golovkin decides to move up at some point to 168 Andre Dirrell would be the best challenge in that division, though I would definitely favor Golovkin in this one as well.
Comments are closed.