Why Mayweather will defeat Pacquiao

By Bob Smith - 03/21/2015 - Comments

LR_TRAPPFOTOS-MAYPAC PRESSER-8583(Photo credit: Stephanie Trapp/Mayweather Promotions) By Bob Smith: While I do think the Floyd Mayweather Jr vs. Manny Pacquiao fight will be a competitive fight for the first few rounds, for me, the principal question is who will press their primary advantage most successfully to win. The fundamental dynamic in my opinion will be the volume punching of Pacquiao and all that goes with it – incredible speed, possibly the best angles in boxing, incredible footwork, and remarkable power on the one hand, and the right hand of Mayweather on the other hand.

Many who speculate that Pacquiao will defeat Floyd claim so because of the power, speed and angles of Pacquiao. And who can deny this?

Recent mismatch fights aside, such as Pacquiao vs. Rios and Pacquiao vs. Chris Algieri, he has dominated much larger elite opponents as no other fighter in his era has, and that includes Floyd. At the same time, he is very vulnerable to having his game plan disrupted by a skilled counter puncher, in particular one who is aggressive and forceful with the right hand counter punch, such as Marquez. It is quite significant that the much bigger Oscar De La Hoya and Antonio Margarito were dominated by the speed and power of Pacquiao but the smarter Marquez had three close fights with him and ended up with a decision KO win in the last fight.

The major reason for the success of Marquez is not only his skilled defense but very well timed counter punches. For instance, Pacquiao averaged 73 punches per round when not fighting Juan Manuel Marquez and 50 punches per round when fighting Marquez. And this is a Marquez who was willing to trade with Pacquiao and not overly defensive. Thus, when goofball former heavyweight champions claim that “Pacquiao will throw 100 punches per round” they have no idea what they are talking about. In fact, Pacquiao will be lucky to throw 70 per round and land 30% of them, which would make for 252 landed punches, but this seems unbelievable when considering other Mayweather opponents.

For me, then, it is impossible to foresee Mayweather not doing at least as well as Marquez against Pacquiao, for he does everything Marquez does better than him, and adds superior boxing IQ, speed, defense, and variation in his punches.

The key question then, for me, is not whether or not Pacquiao will defeat Mayweather, but how many punches he will land en route to losing. He has not had a KO/TKO since 2009, and he is not going to get one against the P4P best. How close will he be when the decision of the judges is that he lost?

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Though I was way off, like everyone else, with how Marcos Maidana would do against Mayweather in the first match (I predicted 108, while he actually landed 221):

http://www.boxingnews24.com/2014/03/how-many-punches-will-maidana-land-against-floyd/

I was on the other hand rather close with both the Saul “Canelo” Alvarez fight and my first prediction on Maidana as applied to his second fight with Mayweather:

http://www.boxingnews24.com/2013/06/alvarez-will-land-fewer-than-7-punches-per-round-en-route-to-a-clear-loss/

In fact, Canelo landed 117 while I predicted 92; with Maidana in the second fight, the extension of the first fight’s prediction would be 108, he actually landed 128. Thus, I was 25 punches off and 20 punches off respectively, not too bad for competitive fights at the elite level.

The summary of those who did best in terms of punches landed against Mayweather is thus as follows: to summarize the Bob Smith article briefly: in the past eight years, the six highest punch totals against Mayweather were: Maidana I, 221; Maidana II, 128; De La Hoya, 122; Alvarez, 117; Robert Guerrero, 113; Miguel Cotto, 105. Of course, Jose Louis Castillo landed 203, but that was in the year 2002 in a completely different weight class, and Mayweather dominated the rematch.

Though I may be accused of bias, IMHO Maidana did so well in the first match because of his sheer awkwardness, aggression and power, and at the same time, Floyd being psychologically off his game due to relationship issues at the time. Maidana is tremendously powerful, fought very dirty, and often aimed for the back of Floyd’s head purposely, and this flustered him and made him hesitant until the middle rounds. Pacquiao will have neither the size nor the ex-con mentality to cause Mayweather these difficulties, and Mayweather will largely be able to keep the fight in the center of the ring and control it with his jab.

How many punches will Pacquiao land then, if he is fated to lose but put up somewhat of a fight? It will be somewhere between the two Maidana fights both in terms of competitiveness and also punch output. There is no way he will land 200 punches against Mayweather, but I can’t see someone of his quickness and ability and power landing less than 150.

As of 2012, Mayweather landed 46% of his punches while his opponents landed a measly 16% of their punches, for a differential of +30%. By contrast, other elite fighters who fight the best available have a percentage much, much lower, for example (at least at the time) Wladimir Klitschko at +13% and Pacquiao at +11%.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1135177-floyd-mayweather-is-the-best-of-all-time-according-to-compubox-at-least

Even in Maidana’s first fight he landed only at 26%, and he declined to a more normal 22% in the second fight, while throwing 286 punches fewer. So, my best estimate is that Pacquiao will throw about 60 punches per round and land about 25%, for a total of about 180 punches landed. This will place his punch totals at 2nd over the past 10 years against Mayweather, respectable, but not enough to get the W.

As a final note, I am willing to explain clearly and patiently in the comments to Pacquiao’s fans and other assorted people how and why Mayweather will win and counter any argument – and believe me, I have seen and heard them all – why Pacquiao will win.



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