By Jaime Ortega: The most anticipated fight in history is now less than 60 days from finally happening. Early housing bets in Vegas show a 2-1 bet in favor of Floyd Mayweather Jr, but Manny Pacquiao is not far behind in what odd makers call a very competitive fight. Predictions are starting to swing in favor of Pacquiao.
Of course picking Floyd to win the fight based on his perfect record can’t go wrong, or can it? I believe most people who bet in favor of Floyd to win are picking the champ exclusively based on his undefeated record, but I am unconvinced they have analyzed his past bouts and previous opponents.
The question is what would Pacquiao offer to the table? Consider the few valuable points bellow.
1) Pacquiao is considerably the best southpaw under 147 lbs.
2) Per fight, he launches the highest number of combinations in boxing.
3) His accuracy is underrated. Once he successfully lands the third shot throwing a combination, his opponents get overwhelmed by the rest of well placed hits he lands. Even having distance, he also has the ability to propel a lighting kick jab, thanks to the power allocated on his calves which unlocks speed with explosion when most required.
4) No one has ever dominated Pacquiao outside of his first KO against Marquez, that after fighting 4 matches, took him almost 42 rounds to get beat. 95% of the times he faces other challengers, if it goes to the score cards, he beats them on points.
5) He has had more KO’s than Floyd in his career.
6) Thanks to his trainer Freddy Roach, his right hand is just as powerful and effective as his left.
7) Thus far, his level of intensity is the highest in the game. He fights for 12 consecutive rounds at equally the same pace as round 1, suffocating his opponents with high pressure.
8) His ring IQ is sub-estimated. He is very astute in the ring and can‘t take punches.
9) He is a versatile boxer that combines a little of everything.
10) His defensive abilities are underrated. Today’s Pacquiao is counter defensive whereas before he was fully offensive. After the Marquez KO, Pacquiao became more reserved and cautious moving forward only when he felt safe. He likes to launch, land and fade away! A strategy that has worked very well against opponents like Brandom Rios who brought knockout power, Timothy Bradley who showed versatility and Chris Algeri who had length and ring mobility.
11) You cannot defend what you cannot stop! Opponents may dodge 2 or maybe 3 punches, but once he launches a full counter attack his adversaries suffer punishment with well timed hits rapidly placed on set motion which land with power.
12) Pacquiao has a unique boxing style.
13) Pacquiao has a lot of heart, and unless Floyd knocks him out, he will menace and harass him the entire 12 rounds non stop without showing signs of fatigue.
14) Pacquiao works very hard, just as Floyd.
Now the points above illustrate Pacquiao’s overall technique including his physical strength accompanied with lots of stamina to make him a great candidate to win the fight. But now lets take a look at Floyd’s weakness which are also his greatest strengths.
1) 47-0 doesn’t guarantee he will win against Pacquiao. Invincibility is not insured. Unlike PPV numbers, perfect scores don’t matter much in boxing bouts; what significantly matters is the number of credible opponents Floyd has fought, and the styles these opponents possessed. Undefeated is a positive asset, but Sugar Ray Robinson despite being defeated a few times late in his career is considered the best boxer to have ever set foot on the ring, and possibly the most dangerous one.
2) Floyd had a lot of trouble facing Maidana in fight 1, and 2. Like Chris Algeri with Pacquiao, Canelo verily exchanged with Floyd showing to much respect for his opponent, doubting his possibilities that ultimately gave the advantage to Floyd‘s game plan. Canelo forced himself to play Floyd’s chasing game, but lost, on the other hand Pacquiao will execute his game plan better than Maidana and Canelo.
4) Maidana successfully pushed Floyd to the ropes on multiple occasions, which happens to be Pacquiao’s favorite spot. This will be problematic for Floyd to handle.
5) Floyd will not use his greatest weapon against Pacquiao, which is his shoulder role, if he does he will have to deal with Pacquiao’s left stutter steps. If he changes to high guard, he will have deal with Pacquiao’s unique angles, and his counter defensive in and outs.
6) At one point Floyd will try to hug Pacquiao to frustrate his constant onslaughts. This strategy could actually turn dangerous for Floyd because Pacquiao is the smaller man, and if he gets close to Floyd, Floyd will have trouble sustaining him given his larger size. The closer Pacquiao gets to his target, the more dangerous it will become for Floyd to contain his speed and power.
7) Distance will help Floyd throw his snipping Jabs, but Pacquiao’s superior footwork will close the gap quickly and clip Floyd in exchange.
8) Floyd won’t scan all Pacquiao’s combinations and will have trouble deciphering his unique technique. Floyd masters the laws of logical boxing, but Pacquiao abides by a different book, and launches very distinct sets of combinations on every fight that even amaze most boxing analyst. This is ultimately the question, will Floyd scan Pacquiao like he does with traditional brawlers? The answer again comes with Maidana, Maidana showed that chaotic punches can blur Floyd’s radar and force him to rethink his strategy by shelling his defense with more compactness.
9) The body punches battle. Despite not throwing enough head shots, Luis Castillo gave Floyd a run for his money, he landed lots of body punches which vastly gave him lots of points and even outscored with positive results despite Floyd’s controversial victory. Pacquiao in occasion gets body punched, something Floyd will have problems with as Pacquiao is constantly on the get-go and his movement and height will make it hard to land body punches to the gut, and ribcage. Pacquiao totally has the advantage here thanks to his height and high tempo.
10) Face shots. Floyd is comparable to the king cobra, that launches lightening attacks with deadly venom while patiently foreseen his opponents movement, but Pacquiao on the other hand is the elusive mongoose who keeps moving by frustrating his opponents till he gets his bite. When it comes to face shots, undoubtedly using timing Floyd will try to open Pacquiao’s face with precision, but Pacquiao will drive him insane by keeping his tempo at high pace not settling in one place. Pacquiao will get inside at one point, and punch Floyd with power which leads me to my next point.
11) Power. Floyd’s power might be underrated, but the Mayweather family has glass- wrist hands which is why he uses Xylocane. If Mayweather doesn’t effectively connect Pacquiao’s jaw with punching power, Pacquiao given his experience will figure out his weakness by dangerously adventure himself inside Floyd’s defensive perimeter; once he gets inside Floyd’s barrier, it will be Pacquiao all the way thanks to his speed.
12) Floyd has ring intelligence, but Pacquiao over the years with all his ferocious wars has gained valuable knowledge. If Erik Morales, Led Waba, Barrera, Marquez and Bradley had a baby, their incomplete son would be Floyd (Floyd does not posses all of their abilities combined, but shares certain characteristics which makes him somehow complete). Pacquiao has fought all styles, Floyd has not! Floyd has outsmarted all brawlers he faced by imposing his game plan, but Pacquiao has survived all styles he has challenged, and with wisdom you can out-knowledge intelligence.
I stated this before, and I will repeat it again. Despite all the praise Floyd is given by his fans, for me he is a hyped boxer who mostly defeated brawlers to gain his reign; he knocks and beats flat footer boxers for sport because they don’t posses any threat to his technique and skill set. If you are going to bet money, you have to critically analyze all the points mentioned above.
I have to reiterate that for all Floyd’s greatness, he never took on boxers like Erik Morales, Paul Williams, Winky Wright, Sergio Martinez, Kostya Tszyu and Antonio Margarito who presented abilities related with reach, speed, power counters and ring mobility. If he would have fought these boxers, he would of gained the necessary ring experience to cunningly beat Pacquiao.
I am favoring Pacquiao, I strongly believe he will beat Floyd. Don’t just count on him because he is undefeated because if that is so, Roy Jones Jr., Willie Pep, Bernard Hopkins, Ali, Marvin Haggler, Spynx, Julio Chavez, Duran, Ray Leonard, Valuev, Basilio, Tyson, Lennox Luis, Joe Louis, Benny Leonard, Sandi Sadler, Armstrong, Jack Dempsey… and Sugar Ray Robinson would have absolutely no possibility of beating Floyd either, or undefeated champions like Marciano, Calzage and Ricardo Lopez. Think again!
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