By Bob Smith: I have gone back and forth as to whether or not Alfredo Angulo has the chance to pull off the upset in this fight. Surely, it is true that whatever skill Saul “Canelo” Alvarez has he is still overrated; surely, it is also case that he has been carefully sheltered by Golden Boy to ensure an impressive record, yet it is one that is devoid of a single junior middleweight with solid punching power; and of course it is annoying to hear the so-called experts heap praise on him as if he were one of the best boxers in the world or the future of boxing.
While all of this may be true, it does not mean that Angulo has a sufficiently strong chance to upset Canelo. It is interesting that the odds for Angulo to pull this off have changed – from +650 to +450, in only one day, so clearly some individuals are willing to wager that he will expose Canelo. I say he will not. I also say that the fight will not be action packed, as many expect it will be, but basically a boring points decision for Canelo with few flurries, but rather a gradual wearing down of Angulo through superior skill and footwork and defense of Canelo.
In fact, the supposed reasons for the upset of Canelo by Angulo on closer examination turn out to either not be significant or not be advantages at all:
(1) Stamina of Canelo – One theory holds that since Canelo has stamina issues, a skilled pressure fighter like Angulo will be able to attack him successfully when he is resting or on the ropes, as he does for a minute or so in at least a few rounds in most of this fights. The next step is to argue that an Angulo who is so skilled a pressure fighter that he was able to reach Lara and even knock him down twice (and perhaps be on his way to victory were it not for the punch/accident/thumb in the eye) can of course do the same thing to a flat footed Canelo.
There are a couple of problems with this theory. One is that Canelo has sufficient power and blistering combinations (at least compared to Angulo) that will be able to back Angulo up whenever Canelo needs to do so. At some point, when he is tired, he will have to go toe to toe with Angulo, and he will have to be able to hurt Angulo. And I say that he has the power, technique, and boxing skill to do so.
Another problem with this theory is that the very reason for his stamina issues – his huge water weight gain and a body built like a tank, along with a neck like a tree trunk – is what will allow him to withstand the pressure attack of Angulo when he is tired and/or on the ropes. In fact, this may even be a strategy of his to bait Angulo, who will not have the defense to cope with a burst of speed and power from a cornered Canelo.
But maybe the biggest problem is that Angulo himself has stamina issues, perhaps not as bad as Canelo, but significant ones. He punched himself out in the very first round in the Kirkland fight, and he was really not a factor in the rest of the fight, other than to serve as a heavy bag to absorb Kirkland’s blows. He does not pace himself well, and this will show itself on fight night due to Canelo attacking the body of Angulo early and consistently.
(2) Punching power of Angulo/inexperience or hyped up Canelo
This theory goes that Canelo is an okay boxer, but one who has been overprotected his entire career, and who has never faced a true junior middleweight puncher, just the taps of Trout or Lara. By contrast, it continues, as soon as Canelo faces a serious legitimate junior middleweight contender with real power to hurt him, he will tire or fold, and be intimidated or bullied, and then eventually get knocked out or have the fight get stopped.
This theory holds appeal for it is true that Canelo has been sheltered. However, Canelo also has power, perhaps not as much as Angulo, but reasonably close to it; and Canelo also brings better footwork, defense, combinations, speed, head movement, and counterpunching. In any exchanges, all of these will work in Canelo’s favor. And again, it is very difficult to knock out a 171 fighter who is nearly all muscle when you have to weigh in at 154 pounds soon before the fight – for better or worse, shady practice or not – it is this size advantage that keeps fighters like Canelo and Julio Ceasar Chavez in fights, and makes them appear to have chins of iron.
(3) Vast improvement of Angulo/superior training camp
The third theory holds that Angulo has improved so much with Virgin Hunter, that he will successfully cut off the ring, and then overwhelm Canelo with his powerful flurries. This will especially be difficult for Canelo as the fight goes on, for he will not be able to take rest breaks. The theory continues that the defense of Angulo will have improved, and he will be able to cope with the speed of Canelo due to sparring with Khan.
Again, there is a grain of truth to this third theory. Angulo has improved, he was able to cut off the ring well against a very skilled Lara, and Canelo will struggle with this at times, and he will also struggle with the aggression and confident punches and brawling technique of Angulo. But is this enough to overcome the natural physical and technique advantages of Canelo? I don’t think so, for though Angulo is a good fighter, he is not nearly the thinker and boxing strategist that Canelo is, and Canelo will successfully find holes in his techniques and counterpunch well at critical turning points to shift the momentum of the fight in his favor.
All of this is not to say that Angulo has no chance – but far from it being a 50/50 fight, I would put Angulo’s chance of victory at about 20-25%, which are about what the current odds are at this time. This is a decent chance against a strong fighter like Canelo, but probably not enough to carry the day – at least this is what a computer or objective analyst would predict, but on fight night anything can happen.
The final note is that I don’t see this fight being a “toe to toe” affair. Like the Orwellian named “Affordable Care Act”, or phrases like “military intelligence” or “business ethics”, the only way this fight will be “toe to toe” is the toes of one fighter will be moving away and the other fighter will be following him. They will face each other yes, but Canelo will back Angulo off of him when he needs to do so, keep him at a distance, and outbox him, being careful to avoid his power, in the same way that you can keep a rottweiler off you by skillfully swinging a baseball bat at him and hurting him a few times. Angulo backs off when hurt, and Canelo will hurt him enough to make this fight boring rather than a clash of the titans as it is made out to be.
Of course, a victory for Canelo will not mean that he is not overrated – he still is – but it should lead to more exciting fights in the future, ideally at least. But we will see…
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