By Rjack: As a lifelong boxing fan, I’m intrigued by the September 14, 2013 matchup between Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr (44-0) and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. The weight, the skills, the stamina and all of the intangibles have me wondering who comes out on top.
Canelo at 22-years-old is a stocky guy who blows up in weight after making the 154lb limit as much as 18lbs for his last fight against Austin Trout who also rehydrated to 171lbs – both within the light heavyweight 175lb limit.
Mayweather could probably make the 140lb limit if he had to, walks around at 150+lbs and has never entered the ring on fight night at 155lbs or greater, he tends to enter the ring hovering close to the welterweight 147lb limit.
So in September who wins? I’ve said this to other writers and I’m saying it here; Canelo should probably be fighting as a full 160lb middleweight and at 22 is headed in that direction as he gets older probably sooner than later.
As you age your body spreads and fills out adding additional weight to your frame naturally. The longer Canelo forces himself down to 154lbs – and yes he’s forcing himself down make no mistake about it, the worse it will be for him. The fact that Canelo gains SO much weight means he has outgrown the division and is struggling to make the weight which affects his stamina in fights.
That additional 2 lbs that he will have to lose will be very tough for him and after rehydrating back up to 170+/-lbs he WILL be sluggish in the ring against the quicker Mayweather. That 2lbs concession will make a difference in this fight and I wouldn’t be surprised if Canelo fails to make that contracted weight.
Mayweather will come into the ring on fight night around 150+lbs, but will work in the gym to add some bulk for durability, and add some additional strength to offset the 15lbs – 20lbs size advantage that Canelo will come into the ring with.
Mayweather will be unusually strong on fight night and it will be apparent from the start. Canelo will be fooled into pressuring and attacking attempting to walk Mayweather down because of his size advantage causing him to eat a lot of counter shots while missing a lot of his own shots, taxing his stamina and building up frustration. There’s nothing more frustrating for a fighter than not being able to hit his opponent.
In then end Mayweather’s skills, quickness and ability to adjust will carry him to a unanimous decision victory in a fight that resembles his 2006 fight against Carlos Baldomir. The 2lb concession that most are saying won’t affect Canelo will be his undoing in this fight, a mistake he will never make again! I expect Canelo to move up to the 160lb division in late 2013 or early 2014.
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