By Dan Ambrose: Pablo Sarmiento, the trainer for Sergio Martinez (49-2-2, 28 KO’s), thinks that WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (46-0-1, 32 KO’s) will be negatively impacted by all the weight that he took off in order to make weight during Friday’s weigh-in.

Sarmiento never doubted that Chavez Jr. would make the weight for the fight, and indeed Chavez Jr. came in at 158 pounds. However, Sarmiento believes that all weight that Chavez Jr. took off will hurt him when it comes to rehydrating back up to his old weight.

Sarmiento said “The weight loss that he has to do to make weight will be to our benefit. No doubt he’ll make the fight, but also coming up in weight will also be an issue and that will be to our advantage.”

In looking at how emaciated Chavez Jr. was at the weigh-in it’s hard to imagine that he’ll be healthy enough to win a 12 round fight. When a fighter drains 20 pounds or more of water weight and then puts it back on in only 24 hours, they’re vulnerable to getting beaten. The fact that Chavez Jr. has been able to get away with this in his last five fights points more to his mediocre opposition than to his skills.

The middleweight is incredibly weak right now with only three really good fighters in the entire division. The rest of the guys are pretty much B and C level fighters, and that obviously has helped Chavez Jr. get to where he is now. His weight advantage over his opposition has also been a great help as well.

With a fighter that has drained as much weight off as Chavez Jr. has it makes important for them to get the fight over as quickly as possible, because they tend to lose energy quickly. Fighters like this do well in the first four or five rounds, but then fade quickly in the second half of the fight. This will play to where Chavez Jr. will have some initial success but then will take a terrible battering from the stronger Martinez in the 2nd half of the fight until Chavez Jr. is either dumped on the canvas or saved by his trainer Freddie Roach.