By Glen Anglin: I can’t stop thinking about the upcoming Juan Manuel Marquez-Manny Pacquiao match. We boxing fans are lucky to see such a show: Two similar sized, well matched, top-shelf fighters pitted against one another. One way to attempt to see into the future and predict the possible outcome of the match is to take stock of the similarities and differences of the two men. Here goes:

Manny and JMM both train hard and come to their matches in excellent condition. They are similar, in fact almost identical, in size. Neither man holds or wrestles much. They both use foot movement about the same amount for tactical advantage, but neither is a runner or ‘bike rider’. Both are very proud of their country and their people and do not take insults to their homeland lightly. Much has been made of Pacquiao’s improvements under Roach. This is true, but both men have improved their technique as they have aged: Marquez’s jab is better than 5 years ago, and Pacquiao has learned to move sideways sometimes and now can snap off an excellent right hook to back up his lights-out straight left. As far as similarities, that’s as far as I can go.

It is the two fighters differences that makes this fight so compelling. Marquez is a polished counter-puncher who can make you pay dearly for almost any punch you throw at him. He can be hit and hurt, but his return fire is accurate and powerful. By contrast, Pacquaio is an offensive dynamo, with power and speed to burn. His blizzards of punches have left world class fighters like Barrera, Morales, Cotto, De La Hoya and Hatton battered and bewildered.

Let’s look a little more closely at these two great warriors.

Along with being one of the best counter punchers ever, Marquez has a fighter’s brain. More so than most other boxers he is a ‘thinker’ in the ring. Early in a match, he is a student of the action, concentrating, focusing and filing away information in order to make the proper changes. In the middle of the fight, he starts to apply small adjustments in his approach, both offense and defense, to tip the fight in his favor. How many times have we seen Marquez start out a fight looking like he will lose only to see his arm raised in the end? He is for sure one of the top 3 smartest fighters I have ever seen. His recent methodical destruction of Michael Katsidis and two wins over Juan Diaz seemed to show that he is carrying his age very well. Still, 38 is 38 and Marquez could get old ‘overnight’, as they say.

His physical style is that of supreme counter-puncher. He stands in front of his opponent, usually allowing him to lead, and then cracking him with counter shots. He is less effective fighting in any other style, which is why he had trouble in the Mayweather fight. In that fight, he was in the ring against a taller, even better counter puncher. He was forced to press the action and lead in the exchanges, which is not his strong suit. Against the perpetual punching machine that is Manny Pacquiao, he won’t have that problem. Manny will stand close and throw bombs, which is just the opponent’s style that suits JMM. When Floyd was posing and feinting to get Juan out of position, Manny will be punching. Juan has good power and good defense. He only gets a grade of B for his hand speed, and his chin is dentable. But other than that, he is a magnificent, fascinating fighting machine. The case can be made that he took 14 of the total 24 rounds in the first two Pacquiao fights, neither of which he won.

Manny Pacquiao’s fighting attributes are unlike anybody I have ever seen. His teeter-totter, upper body movement looks unrefined and amateurish, but nobody seems able to take advantage of it. He throws the most impossible, where-the-heck-did-that-come-from combinations. The most interesting comments that have come from his recent opponents (when they were honest) are that they say that his punches were hard to anticipate. They come from here and there, up, down and around in 3, 4, or 5 punch combinations, like he has 4 arms. He seems to never get tired and looks like he could fight 20 rounds. He has a rock solid chin; I can’t even remember when he was decked by a punch to the head, although he was hurt several times by Marquez in their previous two fights. His power in both hands is very good, and against a smaller opponent like Marquez, is easily enough to deliver a KO. (In their two fights, he decked Marquez 4 times officially and at least 1 more that was not called but should have been when JMM held himself up by the ropes). As good as his power is; his hand speed is even better. He punches singly or in combination extremely fast and loses almost no power when punching quickly. There are guys who can punch fast but not powerfully and guys who punch with power, but slowly. Pacquiao punches quickly with power, an unusual talent. On offense, he is the best fighter alive. Manny’s imperfections are on defense and in technique. He is hittable and sometimes his footwork does not match the rest of his game. But that is hair-splitting. I must say that in his last two fights, however, Manny appeared to be a bit slower than just 3 or 4 years ago. Maybe it’s my imagination, but I think the ring wars and outside distractions are starting to blunt Pacquiao’s greatness. Maybe the blazing, fight-loving, inferno in his belly is cooling down as he approaches his mid 30’s.

Regardless of the outcome of this fight, both of these guys were a shoo-in for the HOF years ago. In my opinion, these two guys have been minimum top five P4P for much of the last decade.

The betting odds have Pacquaio a clear favorite, which seems like a stretch. The first two fights were razor thin decisions and I expect close competition in this match no matter how long it goes. Pacquiao has a handspeed, power and chin advantage; he seems to be able to take the best shots from JMM better than JMM can stand up to Manny’s two-fisted power. Marquez has the strategic advantage of being a natural counter-puncher in against a man whose inclination is to wage a war of aggression.

If I am forced to choose, I would fall back on the blend of styles, which favors Marquez, and the fact that Manny may be past his best, even though he is younger than Marquez. It’s surprising how good a fighter can look when the strategic process of a fight matches his natural instincts. Think of this; how many blistering counter punches did Juan throw at Manny in their previous fights that just barely missed landing perfectly? I think that maybe one or more of them will land on the button this time, and the great Pacquaio’s amazing, 8-year run will finally come to an end. JMM by UD.