By Dan Ambrose: Weighing a whopping 180 pounds the on Saturday night, number #1 ranked World Boxing Council middleweight contender Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (43-0-1, 30 KO’s) was forced to go life and death to beat WBC middleweight paper champion Sebatian Zbik (30-1, 10 KO’s) by a 12 round majority decision at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. The final judges’ scores were 114-114, 115-113 and 116-112.

I personally scored the fight a draw, as Chavez Jr. gave away too many of the early rounds and lost at least three more rounds after the fourth. I felt I was being incredibly generous to Chavez, because he very well would have lost the fight had it taken place elsewhere in the world rather than the United States. Chavez took an enormous amount of head shots in the fight, and perhaps if not for his huge 15 pound weight advantage over the 165 pound (after rehydration) Zbik, it’s a fight that Chavez Jr. likely would have lost.

Chavez Jr. was basically a cruiserweight facing a super middleweight in this fight. Being that much bigger than Zbik really seemed to help Chavez in this fight. However, it doesn’t bode well for Chavez Jr. in the future because at only 25, he’s not likely going to be able to keep squeezing into the middleweight division without weakening himself trying to dehydrate to make weight. At super middleweight or light heavyweight, Chavez Jr. will likely be out of his league against the more powerful and quicker fighters.

At middleweight, Chavez Jr. had problems enough against the light hitting Zbik. Indeed, Chavez’s face was badly swollen up by the quicker but weaker Zbik. Had this been a really good middleweight like Sergio Martinez, I think Chavez Jr. would have been in a world of hurt. I don’t think Chavez would have made it to the 6th round. The talent gap between him and Martinez is enormous with a capital E.

After the fight, Chavez Jr. was asked by HBO analyst Max Kellerman if he would be interested in facing Sergio Martinez next, and Chavez Jr. responded by saying if the money is there for the fight then his promoter Bob Arum would possibly put the fight together. Don’t bet on it. There is likely no way that Arum will put Chavez Jr. in with Martinez. If anyone, it’s going to be either Miguel Cotto at a catchweight or Marco Antonio Rubio, the available contender for Chavez’s WBC title. I think Rubio will be Chavez, and I can see Arum not making that fight either. Rubio hits hard and with Chavez’s lack of defense, Rubio would likely wreck Chavez’s world until Chavez scales in at 180+ again. That’s a lot of weight and I think Rubio would have problems facing a cruiserweight, as Rubio doesn’t typically rehydrate that much after he weighs in before his fights.

As for the Chavez-Zbik fight, Chavez Jr. looked absolutely horrible in the first four rounds of the fight. Zbik’s better hand speed and combinations made the slower Chavez Jr. look bad. It wasn’t just that Chavez’s size was slowing him down, it’s that he’s just a slow plodder without the speed of the faster guys at middleweight or even light heavyweight. Chavez Jr. is just slow and he’s not a big puncher. However, he punches well to the body and that’s where he wore the lighter Zbik down. After the 5th, Chavez Jr. was able to get in close enough to work on Zbik’s body and tire him out enough to win a decision on two of the judges’ score cards. Chavez Jr. definitely looked like the stronger fighter at the end of the fight. However, that’s not saying much because Zbik was a paper champion with little power to speak of. This wasn’t one of the really good middleweights like Martinez, Felix Sturm or Dmitriy Pirog. Zbik was perfect for Chavez to pick up a paper title against, but even then, Chavez Jr. had to really struggle to win.

I can’t see Chavez Jr. holding onto the title for long. He’s too limited, too slow and is too easily hit. I see Arum putting Chavez Jr. in a cash out fight with another one of his Top Rank fighters Cotto. Chavez Jr. will lose that fight easily but if he comes into the fight weighing between 185 to 190, maybe he can beat the much smaller Cotto. I just don’t know how much longer Chavez Jr. can fight at middleweight when he’s rehydrating up to 180. That’s a shocking number for a middleweight to rehydrate up to and it tells you that Chavez Jr. isn’t long for the middleweight division. And once he moves up in weight, I don’t know how Arum can find success with him. There isn’t any of the super middleweight champions that I can see Chavez Jr. beating in this lifetime once WBO super middleweight champion Robert Stieglitz fights and loses to Mikkel Kessler later on this year.