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Don’t be surprised when Khan KO’s Maidana

Amir Khan Marcos Rene MaidanaBy Mark Hepplestall: World Boxing Association (WBA) light welterweight champion Amir Khan 23(17)-1(1)-0 is now scheduled to fight Marcos Maidana in a battle the public want to see, however there is a large amount of pessimism over khans chances to win. People keep saying how Khan is going to get KO’d because of his weak chin and Maidana’s 90% KO ratio, however I just see Maidana in well over his head in this fight.

This fight has been unlikely to happen for months due to Maidana’s unwillingness to fight in the champion’s home country and also for demanding more money than the average world title challenger when he doesn’t hold a world title, or even hold a huge name that will put thousands of butts in seats. Anyway the fight is on and respect to Khan for fighting an Argentinean power puncher in America and giving away more money than the challenger deserves.

So who has the advantage? Who is going to win the fight? Even though there is all this Maidana hype don’t be surprised if Khan wins by KO in round 5 or 6.

Here is a breakdown of Khan’s and Maidana’s attributes to see who has an advantage

Speed: Khan has a major speed advantage in this fight, khan is the fastest Light Welterweight in the division and was one of the fastest Lightweights in that division, if you don’t believe that ask Dmitriy Salita, he didn’t see any of the three punches that knocked him out. Speed is the most important attribute in boxing and in the words of Mike Tyson “speed kills”.

Technical Ability and Boxing Skills: Khan has better technical boxing ability and skills, he has a better jab and better combinations then Maidana, also adding speed he lands them faster than Maidana, also I think it is a very good time to point out Maidana’s fights show he is terribly one dimensional, his fight against Victor Ortiz showed this as Maidana was completely out-boxed until Maidana landed one Hail Mary shot that changed the fight around. Khan’s ability can be seen in his fight against Malignaggi who until he lost to Hatton was one of the top light welterweights in the division, also he isn’t known for being stopped easily.

Movement: Khans movement is sublime, against Andriy Kotelnik Khan totally outboxed Kotelnik and won all 12 rounds by using great movement to get in close and land 3, 4 and 5 shot combinations before retreating out of range for all 12 rounds. Maidana’s movement is in one direction forward and this is good against boxers with a weak chin like Khan.

Power: Maidana has an advantage over Khan with power but it’s only a slight advantage as only 6 of Khan’s opponents have seen the final bell. Maidana has only 2 opponents that have seen the final bell minus Kotelnik who he lost to in a very lose decision. However Power is determined by Speed X Mass + Precision, so the power difference is only marginal. Big names KO’d by Maidana include Victor Ortiz (TKO6) and Victor Cayo (KO6), while khans scalps include Paul Malignaggi (TKO9), Dmitriy Salita (TKO1).

Chin’s: Khan has the most undependable chin in the business since Wladimir Klitschko, plus Khan himself has no confidence in his chin and has had to change his game plan under the guidance of Freddie Roach to protect his chin and box with speed and movement. Marcos Maidana also has a suspect chin; he got dropped three times by Victor Ortiz landing combinations on Maidana’s body and chin, Ortiz doesn’t have near the same power as either Maidana or Khan. Biggest disadvantage for Maidana is his Warriors Spirit accompanied with a suspect chin, which is just suicide.

Opposition: Khan has fought mostly British and European fighters and a mix of brawlers and boxers, Khan has been protected until he was thrown in the deep end against Prescott and lost badly. Maidana has fought mostly Argentinean fighters who will stand in front of him, in Argentina with the rest of his fights in Germany and one in USA.

Overall Khan has a Speed, Movement and boxing ability Advantage but a china chin, while Maidana possesses power and a suspect chin. I expect Maidana to bulldoze forward but get picked off and out-boxed for the first 5 rounds and be taken out in the 6, 7 or 8th. Expect knock downs and beautiful boxing from khan and expect Maidana trying to land a Hail Mary punch when in trouble and trying to get inside and work the body. One thing we shall not expect is a Points Decision.

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