By Dan Ambrose: Top Rank promoter Bob Arum is eager to match unbeaten middleweight contender Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (41-0-1, 30 KO’s) against World Boxing Association junior middleweight champion Miguel Cotto (35-2, 28 KO’s) next on December 4th. In an article at the LA Times, Arum, speaking about the potential fight between the 29-year-old Cotto and the young 24-year-old Chavez, said “That fight will happen, we’re waiting on the terms to be finalized and for the site, but Madison Square Garden is available, that’s great news. It’s a guaranteed sellout at MSG.” Arum is right. A fight between Cotto and Chavez would sell out Madison Square Garden, but then again, a fight between Cotto and pretty much anybody would also likely sell out the Garden.

But the Chavez-Cotto fight seems like a decent fight and one that boxing fans might tune in for, if only just to see whether Chavez takes a pounding or is able to take out Cotto. When I first heard of this fight, I figured it would be an easy win for Cotto. However, after taking a good look at Cotto’s recent win over Yuri Foreman and then comparing Cotto’s performance with Chavez’s win over John Duddy last June, I’m not so certain that Cotto will win this fight. Chavez Jr. seems to have progressed in the short time that he’s been with legendary trainer Freddie Roach, and with a full training camp with Roach for a fight against Cotto, I think Roach can teach Chavez enough to beat Cotto and beat him bad.

There’s really no mystery formula needed to beat Cotto nowadays. Since his 11th round knockout loss to Antonio Margarito in 2008, Cotto has had problems when facing opponents that come at him and throw power shots and apply a lot of pressure. Cotto has serious problems against Joshua Clottey last year and looked to be on the verge of losing at one point late in the fight when Clottey was taking the fight to Cotto. Luckily for Cotto, Clottey suddenly, for some odd reason, stopped punching completely and retreated to the ropes and just covered up like a faithful sparring partner. Cotto was able to retake control over the fight and win it by a 12 round split decision.

However, if Clottey had done even a sliver worth of punching in the last two rounds of the fight, he would have beaten Cotto. In his next fight, Cotto was totally dominated and stopped by Manny Pacquiao last November. It was an ugly fight in that it was so one-sided from start to finish. Cotto briefly came out trying to punch with Pacquiao, but after getting knocked down a couple of times by Pacquiao; Cotto took the safe course and ran until he was eventually stopped in the 12th round. In Cotto recently defeated Yuri Foreman by a 9th round TKO last June at the Yankee Stadium.

Despite using a jab more and moving a lot, Cotto was still getting hit regularly by Foreman and the fight was pretty much even at the time that Foreman injured his right knee in the 7th. Cotto was then able to dominate after the injury and eventually stopped Foreman in the 9th. But Cotto looked very beatable in that fight and looked to be essentially the same fighter that was stopped by Margarito and Pacquiao.

Chavez probably has better overall power compared to Pacquiao and Margarito. The problem for Chavez was that before his last fight, he sometimes would run out of gas late in his fights and take a lot of punishment. But Chavez looked in shape for the first time in his career in his last fight against Duddy, and carried his power late into the fight. If that version of Chavez shows up for the Cotto bout, I think Chavez can stop Cotto. I don’t think can handle Chavez’s big power for 12 rounds without breaking apart bleeding out.