By Dan Ambrose: If you were hoping to see Julio Cesar Chavez (41-0-1, 30 KO’s) step up several levels and face former World Boxing Council/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (36-2, 32 KO’s) next then you will be sadly disappointed, because the 23-year-old Chavez Jr. is now likely to take on fringe junior middleweight contender Pawel Wolak (27-1, 17 KO’s) rather than Pavlik next. According to Dan Rafael of ESPN, Chavez’s people didn’t like the idea of him fighting Pavlik at this point in his career. Additionally, there was a conflict for the December 4th date that the Chavez-Pavlik fight was scheduled at the Cowboy Stadium, in Arlington, Texas. There will be a football game in the stadium on that date. However, that’s really neither here nor there.

The main reason for the Chavez-Pavlik not taking place is that Chavez’s people don’t feel he’s ready for the Pavlik fight right now. It’s understandable, though, because Chavez just finished defeating fringe middleweight contender John Duddy last month by a 12 round decision. Chavez is making good money for Top Rank in his fights, even though he still hasn’t fought anyone besides the B level Duddy. As good as Chavez looked in that fight, he didn’t look nearly good enough to beat a fighter like Pavlik, at least not to me. Chavez was staggered by the light-hitting Duddy, and hit pretty much anytime that Duddy would throw anything his way.

Freddie Roach had been training Chavez for the Duddy fight, but he really needs to work on teaching Chavez to move his head and defend himself better. If Pavlik was able to fight Chavez right now, I can’t see the fight going more than six rounds at best. Chavez Jr. is a good fighter, but he still looks like a fringe contender and not someone that deserves to be ranked number #1 by the World Boxing Council in the middleweight division. Believe it or not, Chavez is ranked above Paul Williams. That kind of shows you how messed up the ranking is in terms of Chavez.

Pavlik’s co-manager Cameron Dunkin says “They’re not going to do the fight. It won’t take place until it’s good for Chavez and I don’t think that will ever happen. They’re going to wait until they’re 100 percent sure their guy wins the fight, that won’t ever happen.” I totally agree. Pavlik would likely have to look absolutely horrid before he gets matched up with Chavez Jr. He’s older than Chavez, but not so much older that Chavez Jr. can wait him out to fight Pavlik when he’s old and ready for his rocking chair. I can see Pavlik knocking Chavez Jr. cold even into his early 40s. Pavlik will probably never his power, and his power would probably be lethal for a guy like Chavez who gets hit a lot. You can’t let a guy Pavlik hit you a lot. No one beats Pavlik by trading with him. You have to run and know how to fight. Chavez Jr. isn’t good at moving around the ring, and he would have problems against Pavlik.

Wolak is a step up from Duddy on the offensive side of his game. He’s kind of a crude fighter that likes to brawl. Wolak is very good at slugging it out, but he looked terrible in his 10 round decision loss to Ishe Smith in 2008. Smith used his boxing skills and had Wolak tied in knots. I don’t know that Chavez can do what Smith did, because he’s more or less the same kind of fighter that Wolak is, only with better hand speed. Wolak might be able to pressure Chavez, wear him out and then mug him in the later rounds. This is a risky fight for Chavez, too. I highly doubt that Top Rank will let Chavez Jr. fight Wolak. My guess is they find someone ranked at the very bottom of the top 15 or possibly have Chavez some more 2nd tier fighters like he’s been doing for his entire seven year career, with the exception of his one fight against fringe contender Duddy.