Khan–Malignaggi: Analysis, prediction and hopes for the future

By Boxing News - 05/14/2010 - Comments

Image: Khan–Malignaggi: Analysis, prediction and hopes for the futureBy Roberto Zak: Amir Khan (22-1, 16 KO’s) and Paulie Malignaggi (27-3, 5 KO’s); two boxers with ego’s that barely justify their achievements to date. Former IBF Junior Welterweight champion Malignaggi has a couple of decent victories on his record, including Lovemore N’Dou and most recently Juan Diaz. However, his limitations were brutally exposed when he got out-brawled by Ricky Hatton in 2008. Amir Khan, on the other hand, has established himself as one of boxing’s rising stars and has subsequently been fast-tracked to the WBA world title. Since his shaky chin got shattered against Breidis Prescott in 2008, Khan’s fought Oisin Fagan, a faded Barrera, Andriy Kotelnik for the title and non-entity contender Dimitry Salita. It’s safe to say that it’s been an easy couple of years for Khan, and that neutral boxing fans are starting to get cold feet over the quality of his opposition.

Khan-Malignaggi promises to be an exciting fight. While Malignaggi’s record of only 5 KOs in 30 fights screams feather-fisted pillow puncher, his strong chin, fast hands and tendency for showboating add excitement to his fights. This combination of arrogance, durability and low punch power make him an ideal opponent for Khan, who beats Malignaggi in the speed and power department, and whose chin most likely won’t be tested.

This fight is unlikely to end in a knockout for either fighter. If Hatton couldn’t fell Malignaggi, then neither will Khan, while Khan’s KO by the hard-hitting Prescott doesn’t equate to a Malignaggi KO. The winner of this fight will be the volume puncher, the man who’s more successful when they inevitably jump in with their several-punch flurries. Considering the strong defences of both fighters, a lot of punches will need to be thrown for someone to get the edge. What’s interesting here is that neither fighter has faced anyone quite like their opponent before. Khan is yet to fight someone noteworthy who successfully uses Malignaggi’s awkward ‘slickster’ style of fighting, while Malignaggi’s best opponents have generally been brawlers lacking Khan’s sheer athleticism.

And it is this athleticism that I feel will be the deciding factor in the fight. Just because Khan is yet to take the step up in terms of quality opposition doesn’t mean that he lacks the ability to do so, and his speed, reflexes and agility will be central to his success. Malignaggi doesn’t run like Khan, and seems happier to absorb a few punches knowing that his chin will hold up. Khan’s tactics of jump in-flurry-jump out complement his athletic grace (and weak chin) and should mean that he lands more punches than the game Malignaggi. I see it being close, and Malignaggi showed against Diaz that he can stun his opponent with a rare power shot which could stop Khan in his tracks. However, these are few and far between, and unless it’s a freak KO for Malignaggi, I see Khan taking this fight by Majority Decision.

For Khan, the Malignaggi should be the gateway to fighting high-end opposition. I was disappointed when Khan backed out of fighting Marcos Maidana (28-1, 27 KO’s) as this would have been the first true test of his pedigree. Furthermore, having seen Maidana’s lack of speed and poor defence against Ortiz, I think that Khan would have had a good chance of winning. Let’s forget about fights with Mayweather or Pacquiao for now, or even forever. The light-welterweight division has plenty of competition and Khan needs to start mixing it up with them. Devon Alexander, Tim Bradley, Nate Campbell and Marcos Maidana; beating any one of these will establish Khan’s legitimacy as a top LWW. The time has come for Khan to take the next big step; subsequently tomorrow night’s fight, while not an easy one, should only be a tune-up for bigger challenges to come.



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