Mayweather vs. Pacquiao PPV buys

By Ryan Dunn: There are really only a few top draws in the sport of boxing today. The Klitschko brothers can bring numbers in the heavies, Hopkins and Jones are in their twilight, but still might fool enough fans into buying that fight, and Haye seems to be on the rise. Pavlik had the chance to be one of “those guys” before B-Hop dismantled his Ohio roots.

The list goes on, but there are three fighters who stand head and shoulders above the pack in recent years, and one of them is retired. This isn’t the golden age of boxing anymore, true, but it’s still impressive that none of the three top draws are even heavyweights.

The all-time non-heavyweight king has without a doubt been Oscar De La Hoya. But he’s gone now, and the top two active fighters on the scene since De La Hoya left it are now Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather. Everyone else is chump change in comparison. So let’s take a look at their numbers, and see if we can demystify who is the biggest draw.

I have my own opinion, but I’d like to take an objective approach before I give it. Let’s get started…

“THE GOLDEN FACTOR”

All criteria following has to be predicated on The Golden Factor, which is the point in time in which both Pacquiao and Mayweather fought Oscar De La Hoya and won. The landscape before and after that moment is insanely different for each fighter. You can’t compare Pacquiao vs. Marquez numbers to Mayweather vs. Marquez numbers. No more than you can compare Mayweather vs. Baldomir numbers to Pacquiao vs. Clottey numbers. The Golden Factor is simply too strong.

A CASE FOR MAYWEATHER

Floyd Mayweather is an undefeated, elite athlete who is flashy in and out of the ring. He’s a ring-master, a technician, and did I mention he’s undefeated? It’s an important point, because like in other sports, fans and haters all want to see if their team or athlete’s “oh” will go. Floyd gives off the bad-boy image outside the ring, and will resort to any tactic necessary to get inside his fighters’ heads. This is brilliant, because with an undefeated record, anyone who isn’t a fan of his will still buy his fights in order to see if his opponent can beat him. A win/win for Mayweather.

But how about his fights? Well, I made a chart, and you can have a look now if you want (scroll up). Here’s how it breaks down. I’m looking at the three fights preceding his De La Hoya fight, and all fights following. I’m going to do the exact same for Pacquiao, don’t worry.

First up, Mayweather vs. Gatti. He did 365,000 PPV buys in that fight; not too shabby. After that, Zab Judah (I didn’t have info on Sharmba Mitchell, sorry). He and Zab duked it out for 12 rounds in a marginally exciting fight involving a minor riot in the ring. Still, the number hovered around 375,000 buys. After that, Carlos Baldomir, rumored to be a tough guy with a deceivingly high amount of losses. The fans weren’t impressed, and the number dipped down to 325,000 buys.

Now it was time for Mayweather to step it up. He and De La Hoya struck a deal where Oscar would take the lion’s share of the earnings, in exchange for the boost Mayweather had been looking for all his career. His 325,000 buys with Baldomir was about to be shattered. After the fight, when all was said and done, Mayweather vs. De La Hoya was a huge success both outside the ring and in. They took down 2.4 million buys and shocked the world with record-shattering numbers.

He followed this fight up quickly with a match against the undefeated Brit Ricky “The Hitman” Hatton. Someone’s “oh” had to go, right? Some people thought Hatton could knock Floyd out, but not many. Some were wrong that night, and many were right. PPV speculation was higher than expected, however, and the fight ended up doing 850,000 buys domestically. Not too bad considering Mayweather pulled down about three times less than that only two fights prior, but still nowhere north of 1M as many had predicted.

Then Mayweather retired. Then he came out of retirement. Then he took on Juan Manuel Marquez. Some questioned this decision, with Mosley and Pacquiao there for the pickings. But a tune-up fight is certainly allowed when a fighter’s been on break, so here we go. The Mexican populous would come out in droves to support their fighter, and Mayweather’s fan-base proved strong despite the lay-off. 1.05M bought that fight, which was extremely impressive considering there was another PPV event going on the same evening.

And now all eyes are on May 1, when Mayweather faces off against “Sugar” Shane Mosley for an unexpected megafight borne of broken deals and a broken country. We expect the number to be well over 1M buys, considering both fighters are well-known in the USA, and Mayweather is always an attraction. This is also a very tough fight for Mayweather, so the pressure will be on for him to perform at his top level. HBO will be helping out with four episodes of 24/7 leading up to the fight, and we will see if Mosley is a prophet or a pauper when he says “May first will be May’s first loss.”

A CASE FOR PACQUIAO

On the other side of the globe (literally), stands the small, unassuming, soft-spoken and deceptively strong Filipino Manny Pacquiao. He burst onto the scene as the Mexican Killer incarnate, destroying Barrera, Morales, and giving Marquez more than he had ever had to handle before. Who the hell is this little Asian guy? And why can’t we stop watching him fly up the ranks winning belts on his way? He’s dazzling and willing to trade. He can get knocked out at any moment, and yet ever since his first loss to Morales, this Filipino Phenom continues to improve. Freddie Roach, hard work, and sharp focus are to blame for this meteoric rise. Let’s have a look at the numbers…

In the rematch with Marco Antonio Barrera, Manny pulls down 350,000 PPV buys. Many were impressed at the level of interest still alive between these two, all things considered. Then he takes on Marquez in a rematch many hardcore fans were dying to see, but did the general public care? The media was shocked when the report of 400,000 buys came in. This was a record for non-heavyweight fights at the time, and deservedly so. It was fight of the year on many critics year-end lists, and many saw the fight going both ways. But Manny won, and his journey continued.

Next up, David Diaz. Who? A rest area stop on the way up the weight ladder. He handled the unproven Latino fighter handedly, but only took in a disappointing 250,000 buys. In fairness, this fight was hardly promoted, and against a fighter next to nobody really knew about. Not dissimilar to Mayweather’s fight with Baldomir, in fairness.

After this routing, he went on up to meet the big daddy, Oscar De La Hoya, after Oscar and Floyd had finished their über-mega-super-fight. Could Manny match those numbers, considering De La Hoya lost that fight? Not many thought so, and many were right again. But he still managed to put 1.25M buys together in a thorough routing of the Golden Boy. At this point, many felt it was clear Mayweather was the bigger draw, and at the time he most certainly was. Either way, Both Manny and Floyd had a lot of thanking to do to The Golden Boy.

But then life post-Oscar begins, and Manny wastes no time in picking up some more Floydian scraps. After two interim victories (one a TKO against Paulie Malignaggi), Hatton was back at his natural fighting weight and ready to earn his check and the respect of the world against Pacquiao. The lead up to this fight was dazzling, and the HBO series beforehand was entertaining and insightful. It all added up to 830,000 PPV buys, and proved that Pacquiao indeed can match Mayweather buy-for-buy. Considering Hatton had lost to Floyd, many were impressed that Pacquiao drew just as much interest domestically as Floyd had. The UK numbers dipped a lot more for Hatton after his loss, however, and those PPV numbers weighted more heavily in Floyd’s favor.

Then came Miguel Cotto. Not a Marquez rematch, but many saw Cotto as an equally strong draw despite fewer PPV appearances and a smaller Puerto Rican fan base (compared to Marquez and his Mexican legions). The fight was the first time to prove Pacquiao’s PPV mettle. And he did it in explosive fashion. After the round 12 TKO dust settled, we learned that Manny did 1.25M buys with Miguel, outshining Mayweather’s comeback victory from only a few months earlier.

Just about a week ago, Pacquiao faced off against a very obscure fighter by the name of Joshua Clottey. Manny die-hard fans know Clottey as the guy who beat an outclassed Corrales and Judah, and who lost to Margarito and Cotto in hard battles. This was a replacement fight for the originally designed Mayweather match-up, but it still pulled down at least 650,000 buys, according to Bob Arum. When compared with Manny and Floyd’s Hatton numbers, this is a commendable amount of buys. Many were angry at Manny and Floyd for not making a deal, but still Manny more than doubled any of his pre-De La Hoya numbers against far more recognizable opponents than Clottey.

CONCLUSION

For me, the fighter of the decade, the pound-for-pound king, and the PPV draw is Manny Pacquiao. For him to do better numbers against Cotto than Mayweather did against Marquez is the only really safe comparison to make. The Hatton fight is also a good indicator, and if you use those two comparisons, you see that Manny is gaining popularity, where Mayweather has to prove now that he can be a top draw.

If he wants a 50/50 split with Pacquiao, he is going to have to win against Mosley in an exciting fashion, and double the Pacquiao vs. Clottey numbers. He’s going to have a lot more promotion, an HBO documentary, and a much more recognized fighter in Mosley. He and Mosley are also both American fighters who have great histories in the sport. Manny and Clottey were two foreign-born athletes fighting in a stadium in Texas. For them to do nearly three-quarters of a million buys is a thing of wonder.

At the end of the day, I believe Mayweather vs. Pacquiao would indeed be as huge as people think, and could quite possible break the 3 million mark for PPV buys. We saw the media and fan frenzy while their fight was in negotiations. We hung on every curse word from Arum, every allegation from Golden Boy Promotions, every waffling flounder from Team Pacquiao, and every single day we checked our RSS feeders hoping against hope for the good news to come.

If it comes this Fall, 2010 is going to have its Hagler vs. Hearns, and put a punctuation mark on whether we are in the middle of a Neo-Renaissance, or if we’re simply buying into the hype machine of boxing’s biggest farce. Only time will tell.