By Ryan Dunn: If you look up the phrase “unanimous decision” in the dictionary, you might find a picture of Floyd Mayweather smiling back at you with that million dollar grin. But Manny Pacquiao has a relentless attack, unothodox punching power, and a solid chin. I believe those three qualities could spell complexity for Mayweather in the form of a loss by decision.
Think about it; Joshua Clottey didn’t win a single round when he faced off against Pacquiao (unless you want to give him the twelfth out of sympathy). Nobody has ever done that to the Grandmaster before, not even close. Now consider Clottey’s style. He is, in a way, a stronger, slower version of Mayweather. What he lacks in footwork and head movement he makes up for in brute strength. It was a great sparring match in preparation for Mayweather, if nothing else (the pay wasn’t bad either, I suppose).
Manny simply stayed too busy to give Clottey opportunities for solid counterpunching. The shots that did land, however, had some snap to them. Manny is an Asian fighter with high cheekbones and a proclivity for swelling, but those punches probably still hurt Manny. But not once was he wobbled, stunned, shook or even put off balance. Unless it is in vast accumulation (as in the first Pacquiao/Morales fight) Floyd Mayweather does not celebrate the same punching power as Joshua Clottey.
This tells me a few things. First, I am well aware that Clottey is nowhere close to Mayweather in terms of sheer skill. But I also realize that Manny is showing (like Barrera in his prime, and Bernard Hopkins every time he steps in the ring), that he can adapt his style for a specific fighter in order to win the fight. He takes direction from his trainer very well, and he conditions like nobody else on the planet for each and every fight.
In Mayweather we have the gloves-up defense, the patented shoulder roll, the lightning-quick, laser-precise counter shots, and a convincing jab when he wants to use it. Of all these tools, however, I think the jab is the only one that wins this fight. Unless he can keep the distance between himself and Pacquiao, he stands a very good chance of losing the fight.
Manny’s balance is improved, his left and right hooks are equally deadly (he even threw both at the same time against Clottey, to let you know they’re still there, even if Clottey never came out of hiding to receive them). And while his defense is lacking, he more than makes for it with his speed, accuracy, and surprising power punching considering his stature.
You can’t forget the angles he gave Cotto last November. Sure, we missed them in his fight with Clottey, but as was said that night, you can only fight the fighter in front of you, and Manny had nothing but a guy hiding in his defensive stance, waiting for Pacquiao to tire out so he could impose his power counters on the Filipino. But it never happened.
So, how does this add up to Pacquiao winning a decision? Well, as I said, without an omnipresent jab from Mayweather, here is what I think will happen:
First, Manny will control the flow of the first few rounds, as Mayweather studies his opponent to see what tricks Roach pulled out of the bag. During these rounds, Floyd will cover up and avoid getting hit with most of Manny’s shots. These rounds will go to Pacquiao for the same reasons all twelve rounds went to Manny against Clottey. The judges have to score the rounds on SOMETHING, and when you have an aggressor and a defender through a whole round, the busier guy usually wins it.
After Floyd gets comfortable, he will begin timing his counter shots (remember, this is under the scenario that Floyd never gains Manny’s respect for his jab). These counters will land, and they will score. Some of these middle rounds will go to Floyd, if not most of them. But then something will change. If Floyd decides to abandon his jab (or even if he stops throwing it with conviction), and opts instead for shoulder-rolling and counter-punching, he is going to become overwhelmed with combinations from Manny. Body to head, angle to angle. Bang. Bang bang. BANG! (Sorry, I had to do it.)
You see, the reason other critics might think Manny didn’t look great against Clottey, is because Manny actually does better against opponents when he can get them on the move. I don’t mean running around the ring, I mean rolling out of close quarters then trying for a counter shot. Pacquiao is highly unorthodox, and he thrives on off-kilter, seemingly off balance hooks and crosses.
Others say Manny simply has no defense. This isn’t true. Watch the Ricky Hatton and Miguel Cotto fights for evidence that Manny is very good at the hook-duck move. It’s how he put the Hitman on his backside the first time, and it’s how he caught Cotto in the middle of their fight with the impressive knockdown. He throws the hook and leans out of the way at the same time. And those are STRONG shots, not glancing blows. Nobody else really does that… except Floyd (only without the devastating power).
When Floyd plays rope-a-dope and leans around the edges of the ring, he will look out of sorts even if he is not (while effective, the shoulder roll can appear to a judge as feeble, and I think a few rounds went to De La Hoya for this reason). Manny will take advantage of this submissive posture, and the judges will begin scoring the later rounds for Manny. Take Floyd’s jab away and you have a defensive fighter who thrives on well-timed pot shots. That’s great against a smaller, slower guy like Marquez, but Manny is a much-improved boxer now, and his repertoire of tools is growing fight after fight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win 7 rounds to 5, to be honest.
I know this article is about Manny winning a decision, but if there is any hope for Manny scoring a KO or a TKO, it will be in these later rounds, once Floyd begins to feel the judges may be giving rounds to Manny based on the Filipino’s punch output. Floyd will start to put more punches together while countering, and he will become more incessant about moving out of close quarters. Those will be the opportunities for Manny to land a sudden, unseen counter hook and put Floyd on the floor like he did against Marquez. It sounds impossible, as I said earlier, until you really start to break these two fighters down to their elements.
Keep in mind, this is a very early hypothesis designed to show you how an argument can be made for Manny winning a decision. Most whom have spoken about this fight seem to be divided between Mayweather winning in by unanimous decision or Pacquiao winning by knockout. It’s going to take something very surprising to happen for Manny to knock Floyd out, but Mayweather and Pacquiao have just about equal chances of winning a decision in my opinion.
Floyd will win if he keeps the fight in the middle of the ring with his jab, and Manny will win if he overwhelms Floyd and keeps him on the ropes.
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