By Ryan Dunn: In case you thought I was making a prediction with part one of this two-part piece, here is the other side of the equation. I know that fans on both side of the aisle are enthusiastic about the upcoming Mayweather vs. Mosley fight, and I am among them. This is a super fight that wasn’t supposed to happen, but come May 1st, Mayweather will have to fight one of the strongest, fastest, smartest opponents of his entire career. It should be as exciting a Mayweather fight as we’ve yet seen.
So apologies in advance for leap-frogging one fight for another that hasn’t been negotiated and very well may never take place. Consider this a two-part piece of speculative fiction if you will. But truth be told, if he wins against Mosley, he will have to fight an opponent equally as strong, just as smart, and arguably faster in Manny Pacquiao.
The recipe for Mayweather to win a fight with Manny Pacquiao is not as simple as many might think. It’s easy to say that Floyd is the faster, smarter, more adaptive fighter. It’s also easy to overlook the fact that Pacquiao presents more than one significant risk to Mayweather’s thus-far untarnished record. Manny has speed, too. He has more brains than some have suggested. He adapts in training for his fighter and brings a new game plan every time he squares off. Mayweather cannot underestimate any of that. Oh, and Manny is a ridiculously shifty power puncher as well.
So how to diffuse an unorthodox warrior who will not let up the pressure for twelve whole rounds? I said it before and I’ll say it again… it’s with the jab. Floyd is a master jabber, a slick, rangy fighter who will hit you in the face, the chest, the gut, the arm, wherever he needs to, in order to create space and time his shots. But he can be bull-rushed if the opponent is willing to take the risk. How Floyd performs on the inside truly depends on where in the ring he is when his space is invaded. He uses his size well, even though he only gives up about an inch-and-a-half to Pacquiao in height but has a five inch reach advantage.
Manny will try to rush in with a quick jab, and set up combinations with body punching when he can’t get to Floyd up top. Pacquiao will not win the jabbing war, however. You’ll see his bristly black locks flying up all night as he gets nailed with the Floydian Jab™. You’ll see him shake his head and clap his fists continuously as the stinging shots come at him. But he will not stop coming until he’s unconscious on the floor.
Can Floyd put him on the canvas once and for all? All signs point to no. The hand problems, the lidocaine and the lack of knockout power work against him in this match-up. But he can certainly outbox Manny and do his best to stay out of Pacman’s way. Which brings up a bit of a paradox. If you stay away from Manny all night, you’re going to look like De La Hoya in the last two rounds against Trinidad. Judges hate runners. So Floyd will need to keep trading, keep jabbing, keep countering whenever he can.
He has to find a way to convince the judges that he deserves to win the rounds. It won’t be with two-handed blocking, shoulder rolls or fancy footwork alone. He needs throw just about as many punches per round as Manny. Otherwise the tempo will shift to Pacquiao’s favor. It’s the jab, folks. That’s how you keep your opponent where you want him. That’s how you keep him at bay. That’s how you set up your shots.
If for whatever reason, Floyd is taken out of his jabbing game, neutralized by Manny’s hand-speed, he runs a serious risk of losing the fight. If Manny shakes him from his game plan, then Pacquiao almost certainly wins. Floyd will need to adapt to the speed of his Filipino adversary, and there’s not a sparring partner in the sport right now who can truly prepare him. It will have to come from natural talent and sharp mental focus.
And yes, Pacquiao has flaws, and plenty chinks in his armor to take advantage of. His defense is suspect, almost absent at times. He tends to throw his punches from odd angles like Brett Favre under pressure. But somehow it has worked for him well especially in the heavier weight classes. There aren’t many fighters as busy or unorthodox as Pacquiao in the welterweight division, so Mayweather will need to train hard in order to use his tools to their best abilities.
If the fight happens, it will truly be a 50/50 toss-up for me as to who can win the fight. I am going to wait until I hear more about how each camp is preparing for the fight, perhaps using HBO’s 24/7 as a glimpse inside.
The only scenario I DON’T see happening is Floyd winning by knockout. Manny can put Floyd on the canvas with a well-timed, undetectable power shot, especially if his Floyd gives him anything whatsoever to work with (Clottey hid the entire time, which is why we didn’t see any knockdowns in that fight). But Floyd wins on accumulation of punishment with laser-sharp punching. Will it be enough to bring the stiff-chinned Pacquiao to submission? I’m not so sure.
Floyd has the tools to win rounds, and so does Pacquiao. But Floyd needs to stick to basics and control the ring, staying off the ropes, trying to not get too cute with his counters, and keeping that jab coming all night long if he wants to pull out the victory.
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