By Chris Williams: Let’s be real for a second about the March 13th fight between WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao and Joshua Clottey. Is this fight really pay-per-view material? I mean is it worth paying $49.95 – or whatever the price that they stick on it – to see what likely will end up as a huge mismatch between a star fighter (Pacquiao) and an obscure one (Clottey) that many casual boxing fans have never heard of.

I could understand paying big money to see the fight if Clottey was destroying all of his opponents in the past few years. But Clottey clearly hasn’t. Clottey lost his last fight, and has lost two out of his last seven fights. Think about that. Here are Clottey’s last ten opponents: Miguel Cotto, Zab Judah, Jose Luis Cruz, Shamone Alvarez, Felix Flores, Diego Corrales, Antonio Margarito, Richard Gutierrez, Marcos Primera, and Marlon Thomas.

Of that bunch, only Cotto, Judah, Corrales, Gutierrez and Margarito represent top tier opposition in my view. And of that bunch, Clottey has lost two out of five fights. Clottey’s win over Corrales was hardly impressive when you look at the fact that Corrales, a lightweight for much of his career, moved up two divisions to fight Clottey and Joshua still struggled in the fight. So basically we’re looking at Clottey having had four fights against top tier opposition within his weight class, and Clottey has lost two of those four fights.

Does that suggest anything to you? It does to me. It tells me that this fight is going to be a mismatch without much drama except the artificial hype that is put into it by people. People keep saying that because Clottey is bigger than Pacquiao, he’ll have a good chance of beating Pacquiao. I disagree. Clottey is a short welterweight at only 5’8”, which makes him only 1 ½” taller than Pacquiao. That’s nothing.

At yesterday’s press conference at the Dallas Cowboy stadium in Arlington, Texas, when Pacquiao and Clottey stood facing each other, Clottey and Pacquiao looked basically the same size. This isn’t going to be case of Pacquiao fighting a monster sized welterweight. If you put Pacquiao in with Antonio Margarito, who will likely fight on the undercard, or Paul Williams, then, yes, that would be a case of Pacquiao fighting a huge welterweight.

But Clottey is not a big welterweight. He’s a short one, who has struggled against 1st tier opposition during his career. I have no idea why Clottey is ranked number #1 by the WBA and WBO. Cotto beat Clottey, and yet Clottey is ranked ahead of him in the WBO. Floyd Mayweather Jr., who I consider a lot better than Clottey, isn’t even ranked in the top 15 by the WBA. What’s that all about?

If Clottey had done well against the few top tier fighters that he had beaten during his career and beaten most of them rather than only half, I could see buying this fight on pay per view. But since Clottey has struggled at times and has lost his last fight to a recent Pacquiao victim, Miguel Cotto, I have no inclination to want to pay to see Pacquiao beat up on an opponent that appears to be not in his league.

More power to Pacquiao and his promotional team if they can makes money on this fight for people who think it will be a good fight. But I won’t buy it because I see it as a total mismatch given Clottey’s history against top tier opposition. Clottey has only one knockout in his last eleven fights, meaning that if he’s going to win the fight then he’s going to probably have to beat Pacquiao by a decision. I don’t see that happening. I see this as an ESPN fight and I won’t pay a dime to watch a fight that I’m certain will be a mismatch. If this was a fight that I thought would be competitive like Pacquiao-Mayweather, Pacquiao-Mosley, Pacquiao-Berto or Pacquiao-Williams, then I could see purchasing it on pay per view. But I don’t see this fight as competitive. You can disagree, but in the end I think I’ll be right about this.