By William Mackay: With the news that World Boxing Organization lightweight champion Juan Manuel Marquez (50-5-1, 37 KO’s) could be moving up in weight to fight WBA light welterweight champion Amir Khan (22-1, 16 KO’s) on May 15th, for Khan’s U.S. debut fight, I have to wonder whether Marquez, at 36, has enough left to beat the young 23-year-old Khan. I have little doubts that if Marquez was in his early 30s or in his 20s, he would handle Khan without too many problems and knock him out cold.

But Marquez is now looking older, slower and much more vulnerable in recent fights, especially since moving up to the lightweight (135) division in 2008 for fights against Joel Casamayor and Juan Diaz. Marquez won both of those fights but took more punishment in both bouts that I had ever seen him take before, aside from his two fights against Manny Pacquiao.

Even in the Pacquiao fights, Marquez was good at getting out of the way of many of Pacquiao’s shots. However, Marquez looked visibly slower after moving up to the lightweight division, and is getting hit way too much now compared to before. In Marquez’s last fight against Floyd Mayweather Jr. last year in September, Marquez moved up in weight to the welterweight division and looked horrible at 143. Marquez was even slower and didn’t fight well after the first couple of rounds. This is why Marquez may have big problems against the bigger, quicker 23-year-old Khan.

Amir is three inches taller than Marquez at 5’10” and has a four inch reach advantage. The reach advantage will be huge for Khan, because his trainer Freddie Roach won’t be wanting to take any chances with Khan’s fragile chin and will likely be giving him marching orders to jab Marquez nonstop all night and stay away from him. The fight, if it does take place, will obviously take place at light welterweight (140).

That’s a bad weight for Marquez. If he looks bad at lightweight, you can only imagine that he’ll be even worse at a higher weight. This is a fight that benefits Khan almost completely. He has the speed, size, youth and foot speed going for him. Will that be enough to get by Marquez’s ring experience, boxing skills and his counter punching ability. That’s the big question. Khan has most of the factors going for him, but he still hasn’t fought anyone with the skills that Marquez possesses.

Khan does have a victory over Marco Antonio Barrera, but you can dismiss that fight because it only went five rounds and Barrera spent three of them blinded by blood leaking into his eyes after suffering a horrible cut on his forehead in the 2nd round. Barrera was also 35 at the time the fight took place, and only recently had moved up in weight to the lightweight division.

Marquez, if he has anything left, could take Khan apart unless Amir runs all night long for 12 rounds. Khan moved a great deal in his win over Andriy Kotelnik last year, but seemed to tire late in the fight and take punishment. I don’t expect that Marquez will be able to catch up to Khan early. Khan will be moving way too much for Marquez to get a good shot in.

However, if Marquez stays at it, he could catch Khan later when he fades somewhat and starts becoming more stationary. I can see Khan also getting caught if he gets brave from success. If he starts doing well, Khan might get bold and try to show off with combinations in front of the U.S. crowd and could get caught.

As we saw in Khan’s 1st round knockout loss to Breidis Prescott in 2008, it doesn’t take that hard of a shot to hurt him. Khan was staggered by a hard jab in that fight. If Marquez can counter one of Khan’s shots, he could hurt him. Once Khan is hurt, Marquez can then pour it on and take him out like Prescott did.