By Jason Kim: It seems that WBO welterweight champion Miguel Cotto is being given next to zero chance of beating Manny Pacquiao next month in their title match on November 14th, and I’m not sure why that is. Is it that boxing fans are looking at Pacquiao’s win over Ricky Hatton and seeing that as evidence that Pacquiao will be able to starch Cotto? There’s a huge difference between Hatton and Cotto, let me tell you.

The way that Hatton fought against Pacquiao on May 2nd, Hatton deserved to lose because he fought in a wild manner, forgetting all about his defense as he surged ahead. You could say that Hatton was like the Titanic on that night and tried to plow through an iceberg in the faster, maybe even more powerful Pacquiao.

Say what you want about Cotto, he’s not careless in the ring. If anything, Cotto is calculated and very strategic. He’s not going to just bum rush Pacquiao like Hatton did. Pacquiao’s trainer Freddie Roach believes that Cotto will fight cautious and possibly even run from Pacquiao. And yet Roach is still predicting a 1st round knockout win for Pacquiao.

I hope that Cotto and Pacquiao aren’t paying attention to him or the media, because with all the people predicting gloomy circumstances for Cotto, it could lead to a couple of things happening: Cotto coming in with a fatalistic approach to the fight as if he knows he has no chance or Pacquiao could come in thinking the fight is in the bag because of his easy wins over Hatton and Oscar De La Hoya.

I hope that’s not the case. Cotto has a win over Shane Mosley, the fighter that many boxing experts are calling the best fighter in the welterweight division. Cotto also dominated Antonio Margarito for nine rounds, easily winning most of the first nine rounds before tiring out in the 10th and eventually getting taken out in the 11th.

Not too many fighters could have did as well as Cotto did against Margarito, maybe not even Pacquiao. Cotto will be fighting more or less at his normal weight for the Pacquiao fight, and is only fighting two pounds under the 147 pound limit. This won’t be a weight drained fighter and Cotto won’t be old like De La Hoya. If you want to compare Cotto to De La Hoya and Hatton, you would have to say that he’s a lot better than both of them at this point in time.

Cotto is at his best right now and will be weighing nearly 160 by the time he steps in the ring against Pacquiao on November 14th. In effect, Pacquiao will be fighting a middleweight on that night. I suspect that Pacquiao will come in below 147 on fight night, so this bout could end up being a pumped up welterweight vs. a middleweight.

Pacquiao is being given too much credit for his victories over De La Hoya and Hatton right now. Everyone sees how Pacquiao dispatched them and surmises that he’ll be able to do the same against Cotto. That’s like apples and oranges. Just because Pacquiao beat those guys doesn’t mean that he’ll be able to beat a talented fighter like Cotto.