By Dan Ambrose: Former two division world champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) reportedly has two plans for opponents in 2017. His plan A is to fight three times again the following fighters: Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Gennady Golovkin and Miguel Cotto. The second plan is to switch out Chavez Jr. for WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders for May 6, and then stick with Golovkin and Cotto for his second and third fights of 2017.
Chavez Jr. has been given a 1-week deadline to agree to the $6 million offer given to him by Canelo’s promoters at Golden Boy Promotions. This is a guaranteed offer. Chavez Jr. would also receive a percentage of the pay-per-view money from HBO. Chavez Jr. could wind up with as much as $10 million if the fight brings in over 1 million buys like sources believe it will do.
“Plan A @Canelo in 2017 @jcchavezjr1, @GGGboxing and @RealMiguelCotto, Plan B…change to Junior by @bjsaunders,” said Salvarado Sanchez of ESPN
Canelo vs. Billy Joe Saunders won’t be a big money fight for May 6. Golden Boy should try as hard as they can to make the Canelo vs. Chavez Jr. fight, because that fight at least sells to a segment of the U.S boxing fan population. Canelo-Saunders is little more than a replay of Canelo vs. Liam Smith. Saunders is very similar in terms of him being an obscure champion that few boxing fans in the U.S ever having heard of.
Saunders holds the WBO middleweight title that Canelo and Golden Boy wants to get their hands on. Saunders, 27, is considered the weak link by far of the 160lb champions. He recently defended his WBO title against Russian Artur Akavov this month in winning a very close 12 round decision.
Saunders looked absolutely terrible against Akavov in winning a questionable decision that many fans saw as a hometown decision. If Canelo fights Saunders, it’s not likely going to draw a lot of buys on HBO pay-per-view due. It would be a very safe fight for Canelo, because Saunders is more of a fringe level fighter rather than a champion level guy in my estimation.
Canelo’s fight against Liam Smith brought in just 300,000 buys on HBO PPV on September 17 at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The boxing public wasn’t interested in seeing a mismatch between Canelo and the little known Liam Smith. My guess is the public will be even less interested in seeing Canelo fight Saunders, because they’ll see the soft match-making that’s being done for Canelo as now a trend rather than something that is occasionally taking place.
All you have to do is look at Canelo’s fights since 2015 to realize that his promoters at Golden Boy is now matching him against guys with no hope of ever beating him like James Kirkland, the aging 36-year-old Cotto, Amir Khan, Liam Smith and now Chavez Jr. or Saunders.
Canelo won’t be fighting in February because Golden Boy wants him to have more time to let his recently broken right hand to heal before he gets back inside the ring. By having Canelo fight in May, it gives his hand more time to heal up before then.
If Saunders winds up as Canelo’s opponent for May 6, it’s possible that Canelo’s many Mexican boxing fans in the U.S will purchase his fight on HBO PPV despite it being a less than interesting match-up. Many of Canelo’s fans will be celebrating the Cinco de Mayo holiday weekend on May 6, and they’ll want to see boxing.
If the only fight that’s on television is the mismatch between Canelo and Saunders, then they likely will want to purchase the fight even though it’s not a great one. So, Canelo could bring in a lot of PPV buys passively without him having to fight a risky opponent that could potentially beat him like Jermall Charlo, Demetrius Andrade, Jermell Charlo, Julian Williams and Erislandy Lara.
I mention junior middleweights, because this group of fighters appear to be a lot better than many of the top middleweights with the exception of Golovkin and Daniel Jacobs. I think Jermall Charlo is a better fighter than Jacobs, but he still hasn’t moved up in weight yet to the 160lb division yet. That obviously gives Canelo and Golden Boy a built in excuse for why they don’t have to fight him.
It’s a very ambitious plan for Canelo to fight three times in 2017, because he’s not fought more than two times a year since 2011, when he was fighting Matthew Hatton, Ryan Rhodes, Alfonso Gomez and Kermit Cintron. Things are more difficult for Canelo now, because his competition is a lot tougher than those guys.
Chavez Jr. shouldn’t be too much of a problem though for Canelo, because he’s now a mostly inactive fighter at 30-years-old, and he looks slower than he was in the past. Where Canelo may have problems slipping in a third fight in 2017 is the quick turnout he would have to do after fighting Golovkin in September and coming back to fight Miguel Cotto in December. That’s only three months. You would have to figure that Canelo will be licking his wounds from his battle against Golovkin for at least four to six weeks depending on how grueling that fight is for him.
For Canelo to get back into training camp in October to start training for a fight against Cotto, it might be hard on Canelo. If Golovkin beats Canelo down like he did Kassim Ouma over a long distance type of fight, it could take a lot of Canelo and shorten his career. If Golden Boy throws a beaten up Canelo in the ring with Cotto in December, he could lose that fight too.
Canelo barely beat Cotto when he was fresh and had a huge weight advantage over him in their fight in November 2015. A worn out Canelo from getting knocked out and battered by Golovkin in September 2017 won’t likely be in top condition to be fighting Cotto in December. Cotto is going to have a likely advantage of Canelo, because the Puerto Rican fighter is taking a soft opponent for his next fight in February against James Kirkland. Cotto will likely get past Kirkland with ease in knocking him out.
You can expect Cotto to then stay out of the ring until December when he faces Canelo if the fight happens. Cotto isn’t going to jeopardize that payday against Canelo by fighting anyone good before then, because he would likely lose. I don’t think Cotto would pick anyone of quality anyway to fight, because he seems to be in the shutdown mode now with his career now in picking soft targets. The guys that were mentioned for Cotto before Kirkland was picked were smaller fighters like 43-year-old Juan Manuel Marquez, Tim Bradley and Brandon Rios. Cotto isn’t going to be worn down the same way Canelo will for their fight in December. That’s why you have to see Canelo’s fight against Cotto as being a very tentative one for December, because the Mexican star might be too beaten up by Golovkin for him to be put in with Cotto in December. Golden Boy isn’t going to want to risk their golden goose Canelo by matching him against Cotto after he gets thrashed by Golovkin.