By Jim Dower: It’s no secret that it’s in the best interest of Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and his promoters at Golden Boy Promotions to drag out the mega-fight against middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin for as long as possible before they eventually put the fight together.
Canelo is 26 and still has a couple years before he hits his full prime of his career. Golovkin is about to turn 35, and he clearly doesn’t have too many more years ahead of him. If De La Hoya throws Canelo into the ring with Golovkin right now, he likely gets blasted apart in an embarrassing fashion.
What we saw of Canelo last Saturday in struggling to beat WBO junior middleweight champion Liam Smith by a 9th round knockout has confirmed in the minds of a lot of boxing fans that the red-haired Mexican star will be hopelessly over-matched when/if he faces Golovkin in the future.
A loss for Canelo could cause his loyal fan base to stop purchasing his fights on pay-per-view. Obviously, that would be a terrible thing for Golden Boy Promotions, considering that they don’t have a replacement pay-per-view attraction that can step in and take the place of Canelo.
That’s why might not see the Canelo-Golovkin fight take place in 2016, because it would likely be a disaster for Canelo and Golden Boy if he faces Golovkin and gets whipped badly.
The longer Golden Boy waits before putting Canelo in with Golovkin the better it is for their young star Canelo. If they can wait Golovkin out until he’s nearly shot, then it increases the chances of Canelo winning the fight. It’s tricky though.
If Golden Boy waits too long before making the fight, Canelo or Golovkin will get beaten and then the interest in their mega-fight will be dead on the vine. With the safe match-making that Golden Boy is doing for Canelo right now, I think it’s more likely that Golovkin will be the one that gets beaten because he’s still looking to face the best fighters available. For example, Golovkin’s next fight in December is expected to be Daniel Jacobs if the fight can be negotiated. It’s extremely doubtful that Golden Boy would let Canelo fight someone as good as Jacobs. Look at Canelo’s last five fights. He faced Liam Smith, Amir Khan, a past his best Miguel Cotto, James Kirkland and Alfredo Angulo. That’s careful match-making.
Canelo has thus far failed to become the crossover star that we saw from his promoter Oscar De La Hoya, Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. Canelo can’t speak English, and it’s unclear whether he ever will attempt to start speaking English in the future. Canelo’s interviews are done with an interpreter, and it’s been like that since he turned pro. Without Canelo becoming a crossover star, he likely will never become the big pay-per-view attraction that we saw from Mayweather, Pacquiao and De La Hoya.
Another thing that hurts Canelo is the soft match-making that’s being done by Golden Boy. They’re matching Canelo too carefully by putting him in with over-matched guys like Amir Khan, Liam Smith, James Kirkland and Alfredo Angulo. Canelo’s fans like to point out that he was put in with a tough opponent in Miguel Cotto. However, that fight was not a serious test to the advanced age and lack of size for the 35-year-old Cotto.
Canelo is expected to vacate his WBO junior middleweight title and move up to 160 for his next fight to start getting acclimated to the weight class. It’s a good thing for Canelo that he’s moving up, because if he stayed at 154, he would need to fight WBO mandatory challenge Demetrius Andrade and that would be a very, very tough fight. The 6’1” Andrade has Mayweather-like skills, but with punching power, arm length and a difficult southpaw stance that would prove to be a real nightmare for Canelo.
The timing of Canelo moving up to 160 is perfect for him. If he stayed at 154, he would be in a situation where he would need to start fighting the best in the division rather than the top guys from eight years ago like Kirkland, Angulo and Cotto. The new top fighters are the Charlo brothers, Julian Williams, Demetrius Andrade, and Erislandy Lara. Canelo has a win over Lara, but it was a controversial one that failed to establish that he was the better guy.
It’s going to be interesting to see how long De La Hoya has Canelo go through the building stage in the 160lb division before he finally puts him in with Golovkin. You’ve got to expect that Canelo will be matched against David Lemieux and Billy Joe Saunders before he gets to Golovkin. But I think it could go further with Canelo potentially matched against someone like Curtis Stevens and maybe Chris Eubank Jr. At any rate, I think Canelo won’t be fighting anyone named Golovkin in 2017. Canelo’s thumb injury might be used as a reason why the fight against Triple G needs to be pushed into the future, because Canelo will need an additional tune-up fight to get ready.
If De La Hoya follows the same blueprint that Floyd Mayweather Jr. used in waiting six years before fighting Manny Pacquiao, then we might not see the Golovkin fight for a number of years. I don’t know if De La Hoya would want to do that though, because he would be stunting Canelo’s own career by not making the fight. Since Canelo isn’t being matched against quality fighters that the boxing world wants to see him fight, he’s not going to be able to make the jump to become a superstar crossover fighter.
As I mentioned previously, Canelo doesn’t speak English, and he’s not able to communicate to the American English only speaking fans without the use of an interpreter. Canelo needs to learn English, and he needs to be matched against the very best fighters for him to make the jump to a crossover star. If De La Hoya chooses to stall Canelo’s career by not putting him in with Golovkin until years from now, then it will keep him from becoming the next Mayweather like star.
Canelo has a large enough base with his built in fan base in the U.S to continue getting 300,000 pay-per-view buys each time out regardless of who Golden Boy matches him against. But for Canelo to bring in the BIG, BIG pay-per-view numbers like we saw with Mayweather, he needs to be matched against Golovkin, and he probably needs to start speaking to the fans in English, even if he’s having problems doing it. Look at Golovkin. His English isn’t good, but at least he’s trying.