By Scott Gilfoid: Joe Calzaghe is giving unbeaten George Groves (19-0, 15 KO’s) a good chance of beating IBF/WBA super middleweight champion Carl Froch (31-2, 22 KO’s) this Saturday night. Calzaghe thinks that Groves could end up being too smart for Froch in this match-up, but he feels that for Groves to win, he’ll have to be able to take a certain amount of punishment.
In other words, Calzaghe doesn’t think Groves hit and run style of fighting, which he used to edge a close 12 round majority decision over James DeGale two years ago, will work for 12 rounds against a fighter like Froch. Groves will need to be able to nail Froch with 3-4 punch combinations and stand in the pocket for a certain amount of time.
If Groves had some inside fighting skills like Andre Ward, he’d make his life a lot easier on Saturday night by getting in close and making Froch miserable for 12 rounds. I’ve not seen too much inside fighting from Groves in any of his fights, so that’s probably not realistic to assume that he’ll be able to use that strategy to beat Froch.
Calzaghe told Sky Sports “He [Groves] could outsmart Carl, but can he do it for 12 rounds? George has a real chance, but the result depends on his ability to absorb damage. This is Groves first step towards setting himself up for life and he’ll beyond hungry. He’ll have to stamp his authority in this fight. He can’t go in there and run for 12 rounds.”
I have no doubts whether Groves will be able to take Froch’s shots. The only question I have is whether Groves will fight aggressively enough to get the ‘W’.’ He can’t run from Froch if he wants to get the decision because he’s the champion, and he’ll get those rounds given to him if Groves chooses to use the hit and run style of fighting that he sometimes uses.
The best thing that Groves can do is fight in spurts where he jumps on Froch and starts hitting him with shots. If Groves can stun Froch or get him off balance, then he can flurry on him to win rounds. I think Groves’ superior hand speed and power might be enough on it’s own for him to dominate Froch and make him look seriously bad for 12 rounds. But he’s going to need to be able to take some hard shots from Froch every now and then.
The only question I have with Groves is whether he’ll be able to keep his composure when he gets hit hard in return. I still remember how Groves seemed to get nervous in his fight with Glen Johnson when he got hit a few times by him. Groves jumped on Johnson immediately, but when Johnson was still standing after the 2nd round, Groves looked nervous and tired when he started getting hit back. Johnson hit Groves with one shot early in the fight that appeared to stagger him. But to Groves’ credit, he was able to continue dominating Johnson for the remainder of the fight, albeit at a slower pace.
Groves needs to fight really hard for the first 6 rounds to get as many of those rounds in the bank as possible, because Froch looked like he gassed in his last fight against Mikkel Kessler in the 2nd half of the fight. If Groves can win enough rounds in the first part of the fight, then he can really take advantage of Froch in the second half to get the decision.
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