By Peter Wells (twitter @boxingbrains): As Juan Manuel Lopez looks deep into the eyes of Mikey Garcia, he see’s an image of himself 26 months ago. He sees the hot prospect in Garcia, that once lay in himself.
He smiles at every complimentary word aimed towards Garcia, because not too long ago those identical praises were directed at him. But rather than feeling jealous of the favourite, he instead feels sympathy, and a hint of sadness.
That is because he was once in Garcia’s shoes, and now he is ready to inflict the same damage on Garcia’s career as Orlando Salido did to his in 2011.
For Mikey Garcia to think Lopez is anywhere close to being ‘done’, would be a huge mistake that himself and his team will be wise not to commit. Garcia may be coming off a one-sided technical decision victory against Lopez’s only conqueror, Orlando Salido, but the JuanMa challenge is a totally new and daunting test.
Lopez once upon a time, was the rising star in the Super Bantamweight division. One sided destructions of Daniel Ponce De Leon(TKO 1), Gerry Penalosa(RTD 10) and 4 others in his 6 fight reign as WBO 112lbs king – although his final defence vs Rogers Mtagwa was on points. He then took Featherweight by storm, stopping Steve Luevano(TKO 7) for the WBO title before successful defences against Bernabe Concepcion(TKO 2) – in a fight that saw four knockdowns – and Rafael Marquez(RTD 8).
Then along came the stumbling block. When a money-spinning match-up with Yuriokis Gamboa was on the horizon, Orlando Salido took exception, dragging the Puerto Rican into deep waters before he was stopping him in the 8th round. After one comeback fight Lopez was seeking revenge against his Mexican nemesis. Once again Lopez was the favourite, many believing that he had underestimated his 30 year old conqueror (Salido is now 32). Instead it was a repeat, Salido halting Lopez in 10 rounds this time, but the structure of the contest and the outcome was identical to the first instalment.
Now at the age of 29 and with a record of 33-2(30), Lopez is suddenly the fighter coming in with the punchers chance – which is how many viewed Salido. However the 25 year old Mickey Garcia 31-0(26) comes in as a heavy puncher himself, scoring 8 knockouts in a row before his technical decision victory of Salido.
Garcia’s most impressive wins have come against former Lopez victim, Bernabe Concepcion(TKO 7) and Jonathan Victor Barros(TKO 8). Against Salido, Garcia dominated in every department, scoring four knockdowns before an accidental head-butt broke Garcia’s nose. Mikey unable to continue, sent it to the scorecards in which Garcia was light years ahead.
For Lopez to come out victorious he must not stalk Garcia at the same pace that Salido did. The Mexican was too slow and cumbersome, allowing Garcia to pick his shots at a canter. JuanMa must be quick to pressure his opponent, forcing him onto the ropes and land big shots to the head and body. Having previously broken his nose, it wouldn’t be a bad idea if Lopez targeted that area in the hope that the injury may re-surface.
As for Garcia, although this challenge will prove to be far greater than the Salido one, he must box in the same vain. Lopez leaves himself wide open on the way in, so Garcia will have the chances to put some real hurt on JuanMa.
A knockdown or two is likely with both boxers zoned in to hurting one another. The pick is for Lopez to start the contest brightly, forcing a cautious Garcia onto the ropes. Sensible body assaults could leave Garcia tired and vulnerable in the second half of the fight. If Lopez fails to employ good head movement then he will be picked apart for a late stoppage. However I have the tiniest of inclinations that Lopez can pull it off, only if he manages to make himself hard to hit, something JuanMa has never been too successful at before.
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