Duddy vs. Pavlik On June 7th

By Boxing News - 01/25/2008 - Comments

According to the latest news from the boxing world, undefeated WBC/WBO middleweight Kelly Pavlik (32-0, 29 KOs) will be defending both his middleweight titles against John Duddy (23-0, 17 KOs) on June 7th, in Madison Square Garden. Though Pavlik has a bout before then, a rematch with former WBC/WBO middleweight champion Jermain Taylor on February 16th, whom he defeated by 7th round TKO on September 29th, 2007, this bout will be a non-title fight, since Taylor wanted the fight to take place at a higher weight of 166 lbs.

Duddy, 28, ranked #3 in the WBC & WBO, #6 in the WBA and #11 in the IBF, even though he’s had very limited experience against top level competition. In point of fact, Duddy has faced a badly faded Howard Eastman, whom he defeated by a close 10-round unanimous decision in December 2007, and former fighter from “The Contender” Anthony Bonsante, who Duddy defeated by a 9th round Technical decision in March 2007, and previous to that, Duddy struggled badly in earning a bloody 12-round unanimous decision against Luis Ramon “Yory Boy” Campas in September 2006. However, few if any people, give Duddy much of a chance at beating Pavlik.

There’s no question that Duddy is probably going to lose the fight, and lose in spectacular fashion, but with his old fashioned straight ahead style, he’ll make it interesting for a round or two. The selling point of the fight would appear to be both Duddy and Pavlik’s undefeated records, not to mention Duddy’s movie star looks. Duddy looks more like a fighter that should be in film than in the fight game, which makes the fight somewhat appealing, in that he’s likely going to be getting his face badly marked up by the hard-punching Pavlik, one of the most powerful punchers in the middleweight division, and the longer the fight goes, the more marked up he’ll likely be.

On the point of unbeaten records, there’s no guarantee that either Duddy or Pavlik will be still undefeated by the time they meet up, as both of them have bouts before their June 7th match. In the case of Pavlik, he has a very rematch with Taylor, who knocked him down in the 2nd round of their first fight, and looked to be doing well in the fight until running into a big right hand from Pavlik in the 7th round. Taylor will, no doubt, try to change his style next time around, avoiding big exchanges with Pavlik, and using his fast jab much more often than in the first bout.

If Taylor can stay away on the outside, he has a good chance of beating the slower Pavlik. Of course, that wouldn’t change much for Pavlik’s bout with Duddy, other than removing Pavlik’s undefeated record, since the fight with Taylor will be a non-title fight. As for Duddy, he goes up against the Walid Smichet, a Canadian-based fighter, on February 23rd. Here, too, this is a fight that Duddy is in serious danger of losing, for Smitchet has a lot of power in either hand, and if Duddy tries to bang it out with him on the inside, as he often does, he could get stopped by him.

Smitchet, with his power, is no easy win for Duddy, in particular because of Duddy’s history of standing and trading. This is the type of opponent that Duddy would do well to stay on the outside again, using his jab, and picking his spots to try and land. Unfortunately, Duddy doesn’t have a lot of power himself, and normally has to win by clubbing his opponents into submission. It’s worked against the limited opposition that he’s faced, but he doesn’t have the kind of power that will be able to get the job done now that he’s moving up a level.

As for Duddy’s chances against Pavlik, they’re not good. I see Pavlik quickly walking him down in the first several rounds of the fight, connecting with big shots, and badly hurting Duddy in the early going. I don’t think that Duddy will be able to take the kind of punishment that Pavlik dishes out, especially once Pavlik warms up and starts really throwing. I’m hoping the fight goes at least until the later rounds, as I’d like to see some good exchanges, but I’m not counting on it getting that far. Even though Duddy is ranked in the top, I don’t personally see him as a top 10 fighter. I consider him more of B-level fighter, in the same class as Alfonso Gomez and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., no better than that. Perhaps that’s who Duddy really needs to be fighting, because he’s going to take a tremendous beating from Pavlik.