By Ryan Dunn: “Shane is good at what he does; I’m great at everything I do.” So says the incomparable Floyd Mayweather Jr., who looks to improve his record to 41-0-0 on May 1. In the same way Shane Mosley was the underdog facing Antonio Margarito, so will he be the underdog in this fight. But if Mosley stands any kind of a chance against Mayweather, he’s going to have to bring a few new tricks to his arsenal, because Mayweather is not Margarito… not by a long shot.

Mosley will need to find a vicious body attack without getting countered (no easy task), or a commanding jab (he’s taller, but the reach is very similar), or something Floyd won’t be expecting; improved foot-work, for instance, putting Mayweather on the ropes more than he’s accustomed to. I’m sure Mosley and his trainer have a plan to beat Mayweather. The question, what makes this plan any different from the 40 other plans that were laid out and failed? That’s the most exciting thing about a Mayweather fight: does this guy have the perfect recipe for success? So far, the answer has been a resounding, “No!”

In fairness, while Mayweather recently beat Juan Manuel-Marquez in a one-sided fight, Floyd admitted he was a little rusty, as demonstrated by way of mostly one and two punch combinations. And while the De La Hoya fight was more of a unanimous victory to my eyes, the judges felt it was close enough to score it a split-decision. Hatton was a punching bag with no defense, as both Mayweather and Pacquiao demonstrated. Ricky is fun to watch but doesn’t belong at the upper-crust of the sport. He would have been fascinating against the Gatti’s and Ward’s of the business.

Floyd, if he wants to control the tempo of his match against Mosley, needs to be able to double up his jab and keep Mosley at bay, and find three and four punch combinations to keep Shane off balance. If Mosley is allowed inside, it is entirely likely this fight will become a toss up. This will be his first real test since before he faced De La Hoya, probably since his fight with Castillo, to be fair. The fact that he hasn’t faced this level of quality in his opposition in so many years begs the question… Does Floyd really have the tools to put away a P4P contender, Mosley, who beat the living pants of Margarito with courage, heart, and textbook skills?

Look for the first few rounds to be a mental battle, with both fighters trying to find their stride and establish a winning rhythm that will carry them the rest of the fight. Mayweather will try to make Mosley look bad by counter-punching him and sneaking out of the way when Shane loads up for his power shots. The judges have a hard time giving points to the aggressor when he’s missing all of his big punches.

However, Floyd can’t cover up and pot shot all night, or he will end up on the losing side of the scoring. As long as Mosley shore’s up his defense while applying pressure, he will have some success by outworking Floyd. Mayweather is more about quality than quantity, meaning he prefers to throw smart, efficient punches that land with great accuracy rather than unleashing 100 punches in a round with a lower connect percentage.

Will this strategy work against Mosley? It’s hard to speculate, because Mosley has more power than most of the opponents Mayweather has faced in the last few years. After the first power shot lands clean on Mayweather’s chin, Floyd will have a decision to make. Will his animal instinct come out in retaliation? Or will he remain calm under pressure and stick to his outside game? A scrappy fight should favor Mosley.

Of course, not since Judah and Castillo before him has anyone really landed anything flush on Mayweather’s chin. His most remarkable talent in the ring, more than his ability to knock a guy out, is in his ability to make the other guy miss. Compubox has opponents only landing 15.75% of their punches against Floyd in his last five fights. That is an unbelievable accomplishment, especially against guys like Hatton, De La Hoya, Judah and Marquez, all of whom were used to landing their punches. What makes Mosley any different?

If Shane can pull a Castillo out of his hat, he has a better chance to win than his recent predecessors. Castillo landed 40% of his total punches (203 landed of 506 thrown), and STILL came out on the losing side of the judges’ scorecards. It’s worth noting that Castillo landed almost three times more power shots against Floyd as well (173 landed to only 67 by Floyd). But that was 2002, this is 2010. Both fighters are different men than they were back then. Better in some ways, older in others.

Naazim Richardson is in Mosley’s corner now. The same Brother Naazim who lifted Mosley up from the ashes to find a TKO victory against Margarito. If you’ve been watching any of HBO’s 24/7 recently, you will find in Naazim a man of few words, but one with great self-belief and a confidence that spills off onto his fighter. Some questioned Shane’s firing of his own father as long-time trainer and replacing him with Brother Naazim (among them, Floyd Mayweather himself), but if the Margarito fight showed us anything, it showed us a Mosley with renewed self-belief. I have to think it has something to do with the trainer.

Many say Mosley’s chance against Mayweather is a puncher’s chance only. I can’t say I agree. He is a smart, crafty fighter with great power it is true, but he knows how to adapt to an opponent. The one thing Mosley has NOT demonstrated, however, is how to deal with pure boxers. Forrest and Wright both exposed Mosley by sticking to the jab, and controlling the center of the ring. Cotto was a much closer fight, but Mosley still looked a few steps behind. This was the moment of clarity when many of us felt Mosley may be over the hill.

Which brings up a point… However this fight goes down, these are two men in their 30’s, bringing up the rear in the old guard of the sport, both on their way out of the spotlight, love them or hate them. Bernard Hopkins has been a rare exception in terms of aging with grace, and even HE looked a shadow of his former self against Roy Jones Jr.. Mosley has been in many more “wars” than Floyd has, which takes its toll on the body. Floyd is coming off a nearly 2 year retirement, with only 12 rounds of glorified sparring under his belt since returning to active status. Mosley hasn’t fought in over a year-and-a-half.

So those first three rounds will not only be about figuring out the opponent, but perhaps also figuring out their own abilities and limitations inside the squared circle. It is what makes this a hard fight to predict. On one hand you have to give the edge to Floyd on pure boxing and uncanny defense. But if he’s even a half a step slow on May 1, Mosley just might improve his puncher’s chance to a legitimate opportunity to hand Mayweather his first defeat. He certainly is conducting himself with the confidence and self-belief needed to come out victorious.

If I have to make a prediction, I think this will be a split-decision win for Mayweather, with the first two rounds going to Mosley for effective aggressiveness, rounds 3 thru 7 favoring Mayweather on ring generalship and defense, rounds 8 thru 10 to Sugar Shane on pure heart and Floyd covering up and running to avoid getting caught. The last two rounds will be critical, but I see Floyd picking apart the aggressive Mosley, who will feel he has to prove he is the best in spectacular fashion. I think this is most likely where Mosley could knock Mayweather out, depending on whether he lands a haymaker on the undefeated adversary.

So, I have it Mayweather for the win, 7 rounds to 5. There are more questions than answers, however, so if it were the reverse, I wouldn’t be surprised. The only scenario I don’t see happening is Mayweather winning by KO or TKO. I just don’t think he has the punching power to take down the stalwart Mosley. Mosley is not Hatton; he is more well-rounded and faster on his feet and with his hands. He’s more experienced at this level of competition as well, a huge advantage when needing to know how to adapt to what your opponent is doing.

Mosley can potentially put Mayweather on the canvas, but only if Floyd decides to turn this into the war which Mosley will be seeking. But I don’t see that happening, even if Naazim thinks Floyd will “sprout wings and a tail and turn into a dragon.” Floyd is, and always will be, a clever fox in the ring. The dragon in this match-up will be Shane. Can the fox outwit the dragon and find his weakness? Or will the dragon’s fire balls send the fox a running?