Canelo Alvarez calls Christian Mbilli “too simple,” but there is nothing simple about fighting a man who keeps coming after being hit. Canelo may find Mbilli easy to read. That does not mean he can make him stop throwing.
“He’s too simple,” Canelo said. “I think it’s gonna be very simple for me.”
Canelo made the claim in a DAZN interview with Todd Grisham. He also called their October 31 fight “a hard fight.” That sounds much more believable. His words sell confidence, while his preparation at Oleksandr Usyk’s gym in Spain shows how seriously he is taking Mbilli.
Mbilli would have been a hard fight for Canelo even in his younger days. He does not hang back and let an opponent pick individual shots. He comes in throwing and makes the other man work to hold his ground. A younger Canelo might have answered that pressure with more punches of his own, but he still would have needed to hurt Mbilli badly enough to slow him down.
That is the part missing from Canelo’s “simple” description. Mbilli will offer him counterpunching opportunities, perhaps plenty of them. If Mbilli takes the counters and keeps pressing, Canelo has to fight hard every round. Landing cleanly is only half the job against someone willing to walk through a shot to throw three more.
Lester Martinez found openings against Mbilli in their split draw. That gives Canelo a reason to believe he can catch him. It gives him no guarantee that catching him will be enough. Mbilli continued fighting through Martinez’s best work, and Canelo has shown less appetite for sustained exchanges in his recent fights.
The only simple version of this matchup would be Mbilli suddenly becoming cautious and allowing Canelo to set the pace. That would mean abandoning the style that brought him the WBC super middleweight title. If Mbilli fights like himself, Canelo may need to knock him out to get the relief he seems to expect. Otherwise, the pressure will be waiting for him at the start of every round.