By Elliot Raines: Former two-division world champion Antonio Tarver is picking Erickson Lubin to defeat Vergil Ortiz Jr. tonight on DAZN in their 12-round main event in Fort Worth, Texas.
Tarver says he saw some flaws in Ortiz Jr’s game in his last two fights against Israil Madrimov and Serhii Bohachuk that he believes Lubin (27-2, 19 KOs) can capitalize on. Vergil Jr. (24-0, 21 KOs) just nicked a pair of 12-round decisions against those two fighters.
The 27-year-old Golden Boy-promoted Ortiz Jr. did not look impressive in either fight unless one ignored the punishment he sustained through the first eight rounds.
Tonight, Vergil Jr. will defend his WBC interim junior middleweight title against the 30-year-old Erickson on DAZN at the Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. The main card starts at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT.
Upset Central” in Fort Worth
“I’m calling upset central on that one, bro. If Lubin comes in with his best game, locked in and focused, with his conditioning intact, he’s learned enough from those losses to have a big breakout performance. He’s primed for that,” said boxing commentator Antonio Tarver to Fighthype, picking Erickson Lubin to defeat Vergil Ortiz Jr. tonight.
While some fans on social media believe that Tarver is off with his pick, he appears to be calling it like he sees it, in Howard Cosell fashion. Vergil Jr. did NOT look overly impressive in either of his last two fights against Madrimov and Bohachuk. Ortiz Jr. was walking into shots all night, eating them flush to the head. His face resembled ‘The Elephant Man’ after those two matches, lumpy and swollen up.
Bohachuk arguably beat Ortiz Jr, dropped twice, and was forced to box in the championship rounds. The judges gave Vergil Jr. a 12-round majority decision in that fight on August 10, 2024, but fans overwhelmingly saw it as a gift for the A-side fighter. It would be a bad look for the sport if Ortiz Jr. is given a similar decision win tonight.
“I know everyone is high on Ortiz Jr., but his last two fights, the one with Madrimov and the other fight [Serhii Bohachuk] before that, I just saw some things in that fight that showed me that he’s still got some developing to do. I don’t think he’s the complete fighter that they think he is,” said Tarver.
Studying Vergil’s Flaws
Style-wise, Ortiz Jr. is the finished goods. He’s a plodder type, a fighter with a style reminiscent of Julio Cesar Chavez. He lacks hand speed and mobility, and will likely never be anything other than what he is now, a slugger.
This is the way Ortiz Jr. will always be because he lacks hand and foot speed. Moreover, he’s had too many years training with coaches that have focused on making him a puncher. To try and change now would likely break him as a fighter.
Against boxers, Vergil Jr. will struggle, as we saw in his narrow 12-round unanimous decision win over Madrimov on February 22, 2025, in Riyadh. He won by the scores 115-113, 115-113, and 117-11.
Madrimov gassed late in the fight due to the movement that he’d done. It was later revealed by his promoter, Eddie Hearn, that he was recovering from acute bronchitis going into the fight.
Tarver’s Final Word
“I think he can box okay. He’s not as good a boxer as they think; a real slick boxer gives him problems, especially if that boxer can set up those counter-punches. Lubin comes in with the right style,” said Tarver.
Elliot Raines has covered British and European boxing since 2010. Known for his sharp pen and low tolerance for hype, Raines dissects the sport’s politics, promoters, and paper champions with dry precision.