Canelo Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KO) vs. Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KO) is finally upon us. Two of the best boxers of this generation will square off in front of over 70,000 fans at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. A worldwide audience will tune into Netflix and witness the capstone of a legendary career, but whose? Which man will be victorious on September 13th?
Both of these men are future Hall of Famers. Neither man has been knocked down in a combined 765 career professional rounds. Each has been a world champion in four different weight classes. Canelo has held belts ranging from junior middleweight (154 lbs.) to light heavyweight (175 lbs.). Meanwhile, Crawford has amassed belts from lightweight (135 lbs.) to junior middleweight (154 lbs.).
Any breakdown of the Canelo vs. Crawford fight centers on it taking place at super middleweight and its 168-pound weight limit. As you may have heard, Terence Crawford has never fought at this weight class. His last fight in August 2024 against Israil Madrimov was the only time in his career fighting at a weight above 147 pounds. Meanwhile, Canelo Alvarez has settled into the super middleweight division; the bout against Crawford will be Canelo’s twelfth fight at this weight class. Those who believe Canelo Alvarez will win have their choice of old boxing adages here; there are weight classes for a reason, a good big man always beats a good little man, or whatever else.
Some observers have criticized Crawford for not taking a tune-up fight at 168 pounds before taking on Canelo Alvarez. How can he know what the power from a super middleweight feels like without fighting a super middleweight? Terence Crawford has taken a different approach. Crawford has long wanted this fight against Canelo. He knew he would need to transform his body to make it happen. Following the Madrimov fight thirteen months ago, Crawford, with trainer Brian ‘Bomac’ McIntyre, has been training and building strength with the super middleweight division in mind. With Canelo Alvarez in mind.
Crawford has stated that he will stand and trade with Canelo on Saturday night. Alvarez has been frustrated with recent opponents’ unwillingness to trade punches with him. Canelo says, “As soon as [Crawford] feels the power, it’s gonna be the same.”
Canelo Alvarez is not the only one frustrated with Canelo Alvarez’s recent opponents. Boxing fans have criticized Alvarez lately for not fighting the best competition. David Benavidez decided to move up to the light heavyweight division rather than wait for Canelo to agree to fight him. The last six fights Canelo Alvarez has had were against William Scull, Edgar Berlanga, Jaime Munguia, Jermell Charlo, John Ryder, and a 40-year-old Gennady Golovkin.
Terence Crawford justifiably receives more criticism for his career resume than Canelo Alvarez. But since Canelo lost a unanimous decision to current undisputed light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol in May 2022, boxing’s cash cow has been content with earning a huge paycheck and not challenging himself as he has earlier in his career. Alvarez could be learning from the only other man to defeat him, Floyd Mayweather Jr., and trying to maximize his financial earnings before he retires. Or perhaps, Canelo and trainer Eddy Reynoso realize that his skills are not as sharp as they once were.
Canelo Alvarez is 35 years old, while Terence Crawford will turn 38 at the end of the month. But despite being born nearly three years after Crawford, Canelo Alvarez is much older in boxing years. Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez became a professional boxer in October 2005, almost twenty years ago. Alvarez has had 26 more pro fights than Crawford.
Besides being accustomed to the super middleweight division, the other undisputed advantage Canelo Alvarez possesses is his experience in big fight environments. This bout will be the twentieth time Canelo has fought in Las Vegas. Allegiant Stadium will be the third NFL stadium that Canelo has headlined.
When Terence Crawford fought Errol Spence, that was a big Vegas fight. But this fight against Canelo Alvarez, in a 70,000-seat stadium in Las Vegas, broadcast globally on Netflix, is a different order of magnitude. Crawford is usually unflappable and will likely flourish under the bright lights. But with Canelo Alvarez, we have evidence that he will thrive under the pressure.
One of the questions this fight hinges on is what type of impact all of the big fights Canelo has been in have had. Does his experience in big fights and having seen everything in a boxing ring give Canelo an edge in the trying moments of the action? Or have all of those battles diminished Alvarez to the point that his body cannot execute what his mind directs?
A big subplot in the lead-up to the fight has been Canelo Alvarez recruiting Jaron “Boots” Ennis to his training camp to mimic Crawford’s style in preparation for the fight (along with Cuban middleweight Yoenli Hernandez). The two are adept at switching stances and punching with both hands, key components of Crawford’s unique style.
Crawford views this as a compliment, saying, “[Canelo] is fighting the best fighter in the world – he better be taking it seriously. That goes to show how serious he’s taking me, how much he respects me. Because if I haven’t fought anyone, if I was too small, all of these things the media says I am, he wouldn’t need these guys to help prepare to fight me. He wouldn’t need all of the help that he’s been getting.”
The gambit could help Canelo on fight night, but sparring partners can only help so much. If it were easy to fight like Terence Crawford, everyone would do it.
People often attempt to make historical comparisons to past fights while envisioning how a fight will turn out. Will this fight look like Jermell Charlo vs. Canelo Alvarez, a talented fighter moving up two weight classes only to be outmatched by a more experienced Alvarez? Or will it resemble Manny Pacquiao vs. Oscar de la Hoya, a talented fighter who dominated lower weight classes, moving up two divisions to upset an aging Mexican superstar?
The key to the fight will be the size advantage, and if it can be used effectively, not the weight advantage. Terence Crawford has a 3.5-inch reach advantage over Canelo Alvarez. The easiest way not to get hit by a larger man is to keep him out of striking distance. Crawford can use his length and speed advantage to control the fight and frustrate Canelo. Canelo has been prone to being inactive in some rounds, which could give Crawford an opening.
When Dmitry Bivol defeated Canelo Alvarez, he dominated the fight with his power jab. Dmitry Bivol had a smaller reach advantage over Canelo than Crawford has. The large caveat is that Bivol has more power than Crawford figures to possess at 168. But Crawford can use his speed and reflexes to stay out of range and hope his body holds up to Canelo’s power.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford will be an incredible spectacle and a terrific fight. Canelo is a modest favorite, at roughly -180 depending on your sportsbook. A win for Canelo Alvarez bolsters his case for the best Mexican boxer ever. A Terence Crawford win would make him the only male boxer to be the undisputed champion in three different weight classes in the four-belt era.
My prediction for Saturday night is that Canelo Alvarez will win by decision. I believe he will win seven of twelve rounds, 115-113. I think he will do just enough to win the fight on at least two judges’ scorecards. It will be a thrilling fight. There will be controversy and debate about the scoring. It will be watched by tens of millions of people. It will be boxing at its best.