Former Terence Crawford opponent, welterweight Egidijus Kavaliauskas, is picking him to defeat the bigger four-belt super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez in their super fight on September 13th at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
Crawford’s Ring IQ Advantage
Kavaliauskas fought Crawford on December 14th, 2019, and was knocked out in the ninth round. Nicknamed ‘Mean Machine,’ Kavaliauskas states that Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) has the ring IQ to overcome Canelo’s superior size.
“I think Crawford is too fast and too smart for Canelo. When you see Usyk fight and what Usyk did to the big guys like Joshua and Fury, the size of that doesn’t matter,” said Kavaliauskas to Fight Hub TV.
There’s a big difference between Usyk defeating the faded British heavyweights, Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury, and 37-year-old Crawford jumping up against Canelo at 168. The Mexican star is still close to his prime. He isn’t someone who built a career on defeating 40-year-old Wladimir Klitschko the way Joshua and Fury did. Alvarez has actually beaten high-level fighters, defeating the likes of Gennady Golovkin, Erislandy Lara, and Caleb Plant.
“Looking at how he’s built his body, hearing what I’m hearing behind the scenes, I think Crawford will box smart, squeak the rounds and win seven rounds to five,” said journalist Gareth A. Davies to talkSport Boxing, picking Terence Crawford over four-belt 168-lb champion Canelo Alvarez.
The Problem with Added Bulk
Gareth is an example of how many fans on social media are circling their wagons around Crawford, picking him to win based on how much size he’s packed on in the last year, bulking up in training. The fans haven’t seen Crawford use that new size, but still believe that it translates to added power, making him a true super middleweight.
It’s foolhardy to pick a fighter just based on their bulking up. If they haven’t shown what they can do with that added size, you have to be skeptical. A better way to gauge how well Crawford will do with the added bulk is to look at his last performance against WBA junior middleweight champion Israil Madrimov on August 3, 2024.
Crawford bulked up for that fight, and was slower, more hittable, and his power wasn’t massive. When he landed shots flush, Madrimov’s head didn’t move. In contrast, the shots that Madrimov connected with were whiplashing Crawford’s head in every round. The fight resembled a bulked-up, older welterweight fighting a young, better-skilled junior middleweight.
“Yeah, he [Crawford] will [get the decision]. If we get a close enough fight, they’ll do a second one as well. It’s a big moment for Dana White and Turki Alalshikh. It’s one of those super fights we can’t wait to see,” said Davies.
It makes sense to predict a rematch if the Canelo-Crawford fight is competitive, close, or controversial. There would be enough fan interest to see a second one. Ideally, the winner of the fight should move up to fight Dmitry Bivol, David Benavidez, or Artur Beterbiev. Having two consecutive fights can be dull for fans.
Earn the Rematch or Move On
If Crawford wins, Turki should offer him a fight against one of those three. Assuming he says no, he should move on rather than giving him the rematch with Canelo. It has to be by Turki’s rules, because many fans on X’s belief is that Crawford’s rationale for skipping the 160-lb division and moving up to 168 for the Canelo fight is solely on getting retirement money. As such, if he defeats Alvarez, Turki should put his feet to the fire and make him earn the rematch by fighting one of the sharks at 175, Bivol, Beterbiev, or Benavidez.
My pick is David Benavidez. Let Crawford prove himself against ‘The Mexican Monster’ before he’s handed the Canelo rematch on a silver platter. He’s already been given the title shot against Canelo’s undisputed super middleweight championship without having to work for it by beating any of the contenders at 168. Turki should make Crawford earn the rematch by walking through a bed of hot coals in his bare feet by taking on one of ‘The Big Three’ at 175, Benavidez, Beterbiev, or Bivol.
“Terence Crawford isn’t a crossover mega-star in American life. Even though he’s a sports star, this is his big moment. It’s four weight divisions now. He’s going up six divisions in total to fight at super middleweight,” said Gareth.
Why Crawford Isn’t a Crossover Star
Crawford isn’t a crossover star because his fighting style hasn’t been entertaining enough for him to get the attention of American fans. He was a brawler like Gennadiy Golovkin or Canelo. Crawford has always been a counter-puncher who reacts, moves around a lot, and jabs. That style doesn’t resonate with the average fan in the U.S.
’”I think Bud is a better boxer IQ-wise. I think Bud is strong, and I think he can beat Canelo Alvarez. I stand on that,” said WBC lightweight champion Shakur Stevenson on X, siding with Crawford to defeat Canelo on September 13th.