Terence “Bud” Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) is attempting to do what no other male boxer has done, which is to become a three-division undisputed champion. To do so, he must defeat the reigning undisputed super middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs), who has never been defeated at super middleweight, sporting an 11-0 record in the division.
Crawford, in essence, is going up three weight divisions to fight Canelo. He did make a small pit stop en route to super middleweight by fighting Israil Madrimov last August for the junior middleweight WBA (world) and WBO (interim) titles. It’s been a little more than a year since that fight; Crawford has had time to prepare and build his body up to the 168-pound super middleweight limit.
The biggest question is will Crawford be able to defeat Saul at this weight? The 147-pound version of Crawford everyone saw dominate and defeat Errol Spence for the undisputed welterweight crown will not be the one who steps into the ring against Canelo. We will see a 168-pound version of Crawford, which will be bigger and stronger. How much of his speed and agility will he lose due to the added weight? In his fight against Madrimov, he did not look as dominant as he did at welterweight. The fight was much closer than many expected.
Crawford outlanded Madrimov in 7 rounds, but in 4 of those rounds, the difference was only by a single punch. Israil did a good job defensively – parrying, catching, and slipping Crawford’s punches. Offensively, Crawford struggled at times, landing only 17.9 percent of his jabs. Madrimov threw him off rhythm with his constant movement and excessive feinting.
An opponent who had limited success and debatably scored a knockdown that was ruled a slip against Crawford, was Egidijus “Mean Machine” Kavaliauskas. He’s landed the most punches against Crawford to date at 118 total punches at a connect rate of 30.2 percent, which is comparable to Madrimov’s 30.5 percent.
Although Kavaliauskas lost the match by technical knockout in the ninth round, it’s his success in the first six rounds that points to potential flaws in Crawford’s game. Similar to Madrimov, Kavaliauskas had upper-body movement along with feinting that gave Crawford problems early. Mean Machine outlanded Bud 78 to 65 in the first six rounds and scored the perceived knockdown in the third with a hard right. Terence has demonstrated defensive weaknesses; he is susceptible to the right while in the southpaw stance. Both Madrimov and Kavaliauskas landed several hard rights while he was in this stance. Bud must tighten up his defense against Canelo if he intends to survive the match, as one of his best punches is the overhand right.
Will Crawford choose to fight in the southpaw or orthodox stance? Having the ability to do both will give him a tactical advantage if he does it strategically. However, one thing he cannot do against Canelo is do as he did against Madrimov or Kavaliauskas, which is stay in the pocket for extended periods; it could prove costly if he does. Former undisputed junior welterweight champion Jermell Charlo found himself boxing on the outside in a losing effort. His output was anemic, landing only 71 punches in the match. Similar to Crawford, Charlo went up in weight for the fight, but Canelo’s power proved too much. As Charlo boxed on the outside for survival, limiting the exchanges and his exposure. Crawford has vowed to fight differently and attempt to win by exchanging with Alvarez.
It’s a known fact that Canelo’s greatest weakness is his heavy legs as he struggles against mobile and agile boxers. Is the 168-pound version of Bud agile and elusive enough to cause Saul difficulties? He may not be so, especially if he intends to trade with Canelo. He must tactically utilize in-and-out movement, but must do so in a way that does not minimize his output like Charlo did. To outpoint Canelo, he must outland him as well, meaning he must do enough offensively to allow that to happen, which is no easy task. He cannot simply do the bare minimum and expect to win. Although Canelo is not a volume puncher, he is effective and accurate with the punches he does throw, sporting a total connect percentage of 36.1 percent, which ranks fifth in the sport. For as great as Crawford can be defensively, he’ll eventually get hit by Canelo; how well he’s able to absorb his punches will dictate the match. If the punches prove too much for Bud, he may find himself boxing on the outside more than he wants to, for his survival.
Alvarez has fought the likes of Gennady Golovkin, Sergey Kovalev, and Dmitry Bivol. He was able to take their best punches. Canelo has proven to have a granite chin; he has never been knocked down in his professional career. It’s highly unlikely that Crawford’s strength will affect Canelo to the point where it deters him from chasing him throughout the ring. Canelo has yet to be phased by an opponent’s punches. Terence is a great boxer, but at super middleweight, will he be able to perform and execute his game plan as he did at welterweight?
If his fight against Madrimov is any indication as to his ability to perform against stronger punchers, we may see a less effective Bud who boxes at range to minimize the damage he sustains. Canelo must test Terence at this weight and do so by attacking his body and breaking his guard by aiming at his arms as he did against Callum Smith, who suffered a left bicep injury due to repeatedly getting hit by Alvarez’s punches. If Canelo is the bigger fighter in terms of punch strength, he must be the bully and use his strength to break Crawford down and punish him. Bud is definitely combative, and he’s never had to retreat offensively. If he stubbornly chooses to exchange when he should simply be defensive, it may be his downfall. His margin for error in this match is extremely low, as any mistake could cost him dearly.