By Bob Smith: Today boxing fans received two treats: the knowledge that the Pacquaio-Mayweather fight is finally on for May 2, and the joy that Golovkin will fight and win tomorrow. While Martin Murray is underrated as a defensive specialist – he probably has the best defense in the middleweight division – Golovkin is equally underrated – not so much his power, but his technique, skill, ring IQ, footwork, and ability to break down his opponent.
As someone who in 375 amateur fights and 31 pro fights has never been knocked down or out, we are clearly dealing here with much more than a street brawler with power.
Why then do I think Martin Murray will actually pose a test for Golovkin, when contenders like Macklin and former champions like Geale were annihilated? I think that Martin Murray will have an effective game plan, and will essentially absorb brutal body shots while keeping his guard high until he eventually breaks down, and is knocked out between the 5th and 8th round. While he will not do much counter-punching, as even a few trades could be suicidal, but his tight guard, long jab, and caution may well keep the stalking and ruthless Golovkin at bay for the early rounds.
On the other hand, he himself acknowledges Golovkin has “no weaknesses” and in his quest for endurance and to show his defensive prowess, while he will maintain his guard, his body will take a thrashing, and hopefully his ribs will heal well if they are broken during the fight, as that is a real risk. While an excellent defender for the middleweight division, he cannot handle the light heavyweight/heavyweight power of Golovkin, and will eventually succumb to it. Unfortunately, he also lacks elite punching power, and has a partially padded record, despite being robbed in Germany against Sturm and in Argentina against Martinez.
The test than for Golovkin will be to slowly and steady penetrate the best defense the middleweight division has to offer; to maintain patience in the face of a stiff jab, which he does have trouble with, and to perfect his body work in the early rounds in the absence of a clear knockout opportunity.
It should be a great fight, and my guess is that Golovkin wins in a mid-round TKO or KO, maybe in rounds 6-8. I just don’t see any middleweight going more than 8 rounds with Golovkin, whatever the strategy, style, or acceptance of recklessness and punishment.
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