By Listen: The build up to the biggest fight in boxing history Floyd Mayweather Jr vs. Manny Pacquiao is in full swing. We are two months away from the mega fight and the latest Vegas odds sit at 2 to 1 in favor of Money May. Yet with Las Vegas having Floyd as a lopsided favorite, we continue to be inundated with articles detailing how and why Manny Pacquiao will easily destroy arguably the best boxer to ever lace up a pair of gloves.

We all know from watching boxing that one punch can change any fight. Breaking down a fight is truly detailing what will “likely happen” in a fight based on the history of the fighters. Nothing irritates me more than a writer detailing points that we as a reader should take as forgone conclusion. A fighter could have every known advantage coming into a fight and even worse dominate a fight for 11 rounds and one punch from a persistent foe can change everything see Mickey Bae vs John Molina. Now that I got my pleasantries out of the way, Manny’s boxing skills are limited at best “and I’m being partial”.

In the words of the most dynamic boxer of all time, Roy Jones Jr. “ Ya’ll must have forgot” December 8, 2012; Juan Marquez vs Manny Pacquiao 4. Before you roll your eyes and stop reading this masterpiece of an article, remember comparing a particular fight and using that comparison to foresee the results of an upcoming fight is not a guaranteed prophecy. As we all know styles makes fights, and my argument is strictly detailing Pacquiao’s struggles with an skilled boxer. I am not comparing Floyd’s style, skill, or temperament to the great Juan Manuel Marquez, simply pointing out they are similar in terms of being great boxers who can place, set, and look for particular shots.

Pacquiao fans are quick to dismiss Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Pacquiao 4 with an array of excuses, I look forward to hearing new excuses in the comment section.

Allow me to reintroduce Juan Manuel Marquez 4 vs Manny Pacquiao

Rounds 1 and 2:

As the fight begins, Pacquiao appears to be boxing great. throwing his well known straight left hand and moving wonderfully. Pacquiao even flicks the jab while utilizing his blazing feet, in and out, side to side. In the opening stages of the fight Pacquiao mixes in beautiful head movement all while changing levels attacking Marquez to the body. To vary his attack the Pacman would shoot an overhand looping quick right hook countering Marquez jab and would occasionally sting Marquez with a couple straight lefts to the body. This Pacquiao I feel could be competitive with Floyd Mayweather.

What offensive fight fans may have overlook was Marquez’s subtle yet effective defensive game plan in the first two rounds of the fight. Marquez continued to circle to his left out of range of Pacman’s lethal left hand. As Marquez circled pac, he continued to pump his jab mixing in full body faints and shots to the body that effectively help to break Pacquiao’s rhythmic style. Marquez also used a combination of steady movement and timed jabs that forced Pacquiao to continuously reset, thus breaking Pacquiao rhythm. As Pacquiao would lung in with his straight left, occasionally Marquez would counter by stepping to his left while unleashing combinations usually ending with a left hook that appeared to be ineffective. With that being said, I had Pacquiao easily winning the first two rounds of the fight. Marquez was his own worst enemy occasionally stopping his circling motion and would stand in front of Pacquiao. More times than not when, Marquez stop circling to his left he was nailed with a straight left hand, shaking his core.

The turning point in the fight came in the corner before the third round. Both fighters were giving identical feedback from their corners. Through translation, Nacho Beristain advised Marquez in the corner “you caught him with a right hand, a hook.” Freddie Roach also told Pacquiao “hooks looking beautiful”. Now I may be splitting hairs, but why would a world class trainer emphasize an offensive strategy to fighter who is known for his offense? You would think a trainer of an offensive fighter,would emphasize defense a little more in the corner. In fairness, without knowing the actual game plan for team Pacquiao we can’t really dissect whether this was an error on Roaches part. As I said I may be splitting hairs, but knowing the outcome of the third round its pretty easy to make the point that Pacquiao should have been concentrating on defense going into the third round.

3rd round (A different less balanced and discipline Manny)

Manny began the third round with more aggression. Manny now fighting more flat footed began to sit down on his predictable jab, left hand combination. The combination landed very effectively in the beginning stages of the round. With Manny overconfident Marquez continued to circle to his left attempting to counter Manny’s one-two combination. Midway through the round, Marquez dug a left hook to the body, and that one punch changed the fight. Seconds later Marquez was able to land the exact shot crushing into the ribs of Pacquiao. After landing the two body shots, Marquez baited Pac to drop his guard by feinting said left hook. Once Pac dropped his guard, the infamous overhand right came crashing down.

Like the Warrior we all have come to love Pacquiao immediately jumped up to redeem the knockdown. Instead of shaking off the effects of the knockdown Pacquiao continued to stand and trade with Marquez. This is where ring IQ would have helped Pacquiao. Pacquiao should have tried to use his legs or a holding tactic, to give himself time to recover from the knockdown. I know some boxing fans would say, that’s not heroic, but the last time I checked boxing was not a test of courage. His willingness to trade didn’t further hurt him in this round, but in a similar situation, Pacquiao will have to learn to survive before engaging.

After the knockdown Pacquiao became a completely different fighter. Pacquiao no longer used his mesmerizes foot speed; opting for a flat footed straight ahead approach. Pacquiao became to lung in and on several occasions lost his balance and was easily nailed by counters. Pacquiao was able to score a knockdown and almost had Marquez out of the fight in the 5th round. This success was fool’s gold, because Pacquiao without foot movement is practically impossible to miss This Pacquiao will not last two rounds with Mayweather. Pac primary form of effective defense is foot movement. Without foot movement Pac stands no chance against Floyd Mayweather. As we all know Pacquiao was knocked out in the six round of Pacquiao vs Marquez 4 by a counter right hand as he lunged in.

I believe Mayweather will easily take advantage of Pacquiao’s lack of defense once Floyd neutralizes Pacquiao foot movement. This could be done several ways, and if this Marquez vs Pacquiao 4 is any indication, Manny may do Floyd a favor and actually attempt to stand in front of Floyd and box. That’s what I call a suicide mission. Manny from rounds 1 and 2 of Marquez vs Pacquiao 4; could possibly last 12 rounds with Floyd, losing a lopsided decision. Manny from rounds 3-6 will be KO’d before the start of the 5th round against Mayweather.

I understand why Pac fans think he can win, Pac is one of the most exciting fighters I have ever seen. I love his relentless attack and when that left hand lands, its almost like watching Ken Griffey swing the bat. I understand the hysteria surrounding Pac, but I also understand boxing.

Shh going to end ugly for Pac.