By Dan Ambrose: In choosing offer middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin a mere $15 million for a that could make well over $100 million against Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) in September 2017, Golden Boy Promotions could be looking to kick the fight between these two fighters to 2018 before potentially making a serious attempt at putting the fight together. Think about it; Golden Boy is only offering Golovkin a flat fee rather than a percentage deal, which is the norm for when two stars are facing each other. It’s always nice to make predictions as one year ends and another starts up. My prediction is Golden Boy will continue to push the Canelo vs. Golovkin fight further into the future until Golovkin is too old to be a threat to Canelo.
The offer from Golden Boy to Golovkin can’t be interpreted in a serious way, because it can’t be a serious offer unless they see weakness in Golovkin’s promotional team when it comes to their ability to negotiate a fight.
It works for Golden Boy to have their golden goose Canelo fight Golovkin in 2018, because the Kazahstan fighter will have aged more and will be 36-years-old. Canelo will be 28 by 2018, and hitting his prime unless he’s one of those types of fighters that age prematurely. Don’t laugh. Look at Julio Cesar Chavez Jr’s career. He’s only 30, and he’s seen as someone who has been over-the-hill for the last two years.
For Golovkin this is his big chance to get a monstrous payday in a mega-fight against Canelo. It’s Golovkin’s coming out party if you will. If he whips Canelo like many boxing fans think he will, it could turn Golovkin into a pay-per-view star.
Golovkin could become a PPV attraction like Floyd Mayweather Jr., and could immediately eclipse Canelo without even having a built in fan base like he does in the U.S. Golovkin will have won over the U.S boxing fans based on his performances rather than where he comes from. The only thing Golovkin needs is Canelo’s scalp, and he could be catapulted to the top of the sport as the No1 PPV fighter in the U.S. However, if Golden isn’t going to let Golovkin take Canelo’s scalp in 2017 by then choosing to give a lowball offer to him that he and his promoters would never agree to in a million years, then they can kick the fight ahead into 2018, and then re-evaluate how much Golovkin has left at that time.
If he’s still looking dangerous, then Golden Boy can push the fight to 2019. At the same time, Canelo will likely be helped by the Golovkin fight being mentioned as just around the corner. Boxing fans will want to keep paying to see Canelo’s mismatches against guys like Liam Smith, James Kirkland and Amir Khan. Golden Boy can match Canelo against anyone, and the U.S boxing fans will likely be counted on to purchase his fights in the 300,000 PPV buy range.
We saw how Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao were both able to get over 1 million buys for five years against over-matched non-stars until they finally faced each other in 2015 in the ‘Fight of the Century’ in Las Vegas, Nevada. Once Mayweather and Pacquiao fought each other, their PPV numbers dropped off in a huge way, because the boxing fans had seen them fight, and there was no reason to get excited about them anymore. Of course, they choose to fight guys that the boxing fans had no interest in seeing them fight. That obviously didn’t help. Playing it safe never helps, which is what Mayweather and Pacquiao did after they fought each other.
First we heard about the catchweight requirements that Canelo would need before he could fight Golovkin earlier this year. Canelo ended up vacating his WBC middleweight title rather than facing GGG. They didn’t even bother negotiating that fight. Now it’s looking like the Canelo-Golovkin fight may end up taking place in 2018 unless Team Golovkin accepts the $15 million flat fee offer for the Canelo fight.
Since that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen, we could instead see Canelo fighting either Miguel Cotto in September or Billy Joe Saunders. Canelo already brought in 900K PPV buys on HBO for his fight in 2015 against Cotto. I think Golden Boy is counting on at least that many more buys for a second Canelo vs. Cotto fight. I don’t see it. I think the boxing fans have been there and done that, and they’ll see a second fight between Canelo and Cotto as having no other point than being a money grab. Fans don’t like money grab fights.
They like fights that have meaning. Cotto hasn’t helped matters by staying out of the ring since his loss to Canelo. Cotto is now fighting James Kirkland on February 25. That’s a real disaster of a move. I’m sure Golden Boy wishes Cotto would have picked a good fighter, because it’s going to make it tougher to sell a second Canelo-Cotto fight with Cotto no longer fighting on a frequent basis and not taking on relevant opposition in between the Canelo mismatch.
If Golden Boy is serious about wanting to match Canelo against Golovkin, then they’re going to need to increase the offer to Golovkin. If Golden Boy is going to stubbornly insist on a flat fee for Golovkin, then they’re probably going to need to double the offer to $30 million. I don’t think Golovkin’s management is going to be willing to take $30M for a fight that could do well over $100 million and possibly above $200 million.
There’s a massive amount of interest in the Canelo-Golovkin fight. This isn’t a fight between Canelo a small, aging Miguel Cotto. Golovkin is still in his prime, and he’s not small at 5’10 ½”. On the contrary, it’s the 5’8” Canelo who is on the small side. Canelo is going to be giving up some height and reach to Golovkin. Canelo will still likely be the heavier fighter inside the ring, but being heavier isn’t going to help Canelo. If he’s eating jabs, body shots and left hooks all night long, it could be a real problem for Canelo. What could be the biggest problem for Canelo is the pace of the fight.
Assuming that Golovkin chooses to fight hard for three minutes of each round like he did against Kell Brook, then Canelo won’t last against him. Canelo can’t fight at a fast pace without needing to take LOTS of rest breaks. I wouldn’t be surprised if Canelo gets knocked out during his first rest break against Golovkin in the first three rounds. Canelo isn’t nearly as good at moving his head as Brook is, and we saw how Brook was finished in the 5th when Golovkin trapped him against the ropes. Boxing fans forget the reason why Brook’s trainer Dominic Ingle threw in the towel in round five. He didn’t do it just for the fun of it to rob Golovkin of his moment of finishing off Brook. Ingle threw in the towel because Brook was hurt and had stopped punching. All Brook could do was move his head to try and avoid shots. He was too hurt to throw anything back at that point. When Canelo goes to the ropes for his customary rest break, it’s going to be curtains for him. Golovkin will chop him apart with body shots, which is Canelo’s weakness.
If Golden Boy doesn’t choose to push the Canelo-Golovkin fight into 2018, it’a going to be difficult for Canelo. He’ll have o catchweight advantage for this fight, and he won’t be the bigger guy.