Floyd Mayweather Jr. high guard won’t save him from Pacquiao

By Boxing News - 03/11/2015 - Comments

floyd0000By Jaime Ortega: Floyd Mayweather Jr. rarely utilizes his shoulder role defense with southpaws, instead he uses his high guard to avoid punishment coming from the left jab, and left hook.

Unlike what some believe, the Floyd shoulder role is ’not’ the conventional Philly shell defense, which locks shoulders with arms to protect the jaw allowing the jab free movement to counter punches.

Floyd’s shoulder roll is the modification of the Philly-shell, it follows the same basics except the hips lean down more often followed with body rotation to dodge a higher number of punches. The shoulder roll defense proves more effective than the Philly-shell against brawlers, it bounces away their punches and widens the chances to counter-attacks opening a higher volume of breaches while these are in full swing.

The shoulder-roll defense will prove suicidal for Floyd to use against Pacquiao because his opponents zig-zag movement using quick stutter steps against counters at high pace will maneuver to get inside the body exposing his reluctance to get hit. The shoulder roll is precisely used to cover a straight frontal attack moving forward, but with Pacquiao’s inexorable movement, the game changes because his quick vertical steps will create space for better angles to counter.

Floyd won’t dodge his head down to the sides to evade punches because his voluminous body mass added with his opponents speed and smaller body size will open a golden opportunity for a knock down.

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Floyd will have no other option to play Pacquiao’s game to win, he will be forced to use the high guard which is the most used defensive technique in boxing.

Joshua Clottey had a solid high guard defense, a superb chin, and hit the canvas only once before he fought Pacquiao. Once Pacquiao got the rhythm under control, he trounced Joshua’s face like a surgeon for 12 rounds.

Joshua’s biggest mistake was to try to counter Pacquiao right after Pacquiao unloaded his combinations. Every single time Pacquiao executed his combinations, stepping out backwards, he successfully dodged Joshua’s dagger fast punches. Joshua is counter defensive like Floyd, with greater power and used the high guard to get close to Pacquiao.

Another mistake Joshua committed during the Pacquiao fight, was to remain still and one dimensional the entire 12 rounds, rarely moving his legs vertically right and left to avoid punishment. But was Joshua playing safe, or was he forced to play safe? Here is the problem! Its just like Rios, De la Hoya, Margarito, Mosley and the rest of his opponents whom are forced to yield to Pacquiao‘s style.

When Pacquiao unloads his punches, I am convinced that unless the fighter eye watches Pacquiao trade, he can’t possibly retaliate punches successfully due to his quickness. Most boxers shell right away when they feel his power, close their eyes, exposing gaps that allow Pacquiao to dissect the body when he delivers punches.

Even if Floyd controls the center of the ring, Pacquiao’s high tempo will frustrate Floyd who won’t have time to react properly once he unloads his quick set. Floyd will not scan flurries of lighting quick combinations, there is no way unless he rotates faster than Pacquiao throws punches which I highly doubt possible.

Pacquiao outside the ropes with a moving target will unleash a set of 2 to 3 quick combinations. If Floyd stops moving, Pacquiao will come with angles. Floyd doesn’t jump on his toes while delivering shots, he normally stalls and throws his set after a fade, moves again and then keeps abasing his opponents tempo. Mayweather is not Marquez, and when he throws punches his toes remain stalled on the ground, whereas Pacquiao’s feet always float.

You see, when Pacquiao throws his relentless combinations, due to his speed, unless the opponent is willing to get hit (like Marquez) there is no way he will be capable of avoiding punishment. No defensive fighter using the high guard can possibly stand still against Pacquiao and avoid hits.

In the end of the day, Floyd has to exchange punches to access Pacquiao’s face, because Pacquiao’s foot movement forces every fighter to adapt to his style rather than vice versa.

I believe Floyd will adapt to Pacquiao, Pacquiao won’t adapt to Floyd, but here is the magic trick.

Normally it works well for Floyd to adapt to his opponents style, flat footed boxers who will get picked apart once Floyd figures out their weaknesses. With Floyd adapting to Pacquiao’s style it works exactly the opposite way.

If Floyd adapts to his style, it will play better for Pacquiao who is not flat footed. Pacquiao will not respect Floyd’s high guard, and using his foot movement he will rush in, step into the sides and zig zag with double set of combinations.

Once Pacquiao throws one set of combos, he immediately bounces right back and unleashes a second pack. The last set of combinations will menace every boxer regardless of his style because it eventually breaks down his opponents that fear launching counters for fear of his power.

I highly, highly doubt, Floyd will figure out Pacquiao’s style the first fight. I just don’t see it happening, at least not modern day Floyd.

One key figure is that Floyd does ’not want to get hit’ that has being his signature motto since he started professional boxing. His health is important to him, and I am unconvinced he will absorb all Pacquiao’s dynamite punches. Unlike Maidana who lost against class C and B fighters, Pacquiao is a boxing technician who beat grade A boxers and will expose Floyd‘s weaknesses.

Even worst, bet Pacquiao will work harder than Bradley 2 rematch. He is going to unleash the dragon on this fight, so Floyd will get hit regardless what defensive set he uses.

Now unless, Floyd possesses an unknown secret technique never witnessed during previous fights, I just don’t see him capable of beating Pacquiao. He is hyped as the master of boxing, so if this is true then I am sure he will beat Pacquiao with ease, but as for now given the present circumstances its sounds like a fairy tale.

Timing opponents counter shots certainly works best with some styles, but not all, faster and accurate opponents like Pacquiao are very hard to stop even for fighters who are supposed to have a higher ring IQ. Speed can overwhelm even the smartest boxer.

In my opinion, Floyd’s face is going to look like a fruit canister by the 10th round. I predict a TKO because in the end of the day, I just don’t see him taking one punch, never mind a rain of accurate dynamite punches landing on his pretty face.



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