By Bob Smith: The victory by WBA middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin over Daniel Geale was very impressive, and arguably the most dominant victory of the entire boxing year, in retrospect it seemed like they did not even deserve to be in the ring with each other, yet Geale is a former two time world champion at middleweight, who had never suffered a loss by knockout, won title decisions as a foreigner in Germany, and was universally ranked in the top 5 fighters in the middleweight division.
And Golovkin really just blitzed over Geale. It is an interesting reflection that tough contenders like Garbriel Rosado and Curtis Stevens last longer in the ring against Golovkin than those who have contested for titles more regularly like Geale or Matthew Macklin. I think it is because Geale and Macklin failed to be intimidated and as a result, were more likely to get caught be a tremendous punch from Golovkin. By contrast, Rosado and Stevens embraced the underdog role, and were aggressive counter-punchers and at least got quite a few shots in before being worn down.
Golovkin is at or near his peak and on a roll- let’s enjoy this as fans. We all remember the unstoppable Sergio Martinez of the late 2000s, and going back further, some of us might remember the Manny Pacquiao of the mid to late 2000s, and the Roy Jones of the 1990s, or even the Mike Tyson of the late 1980s. Golovkin is on a similar track, does similarly amazing things, and were it not for his poor English and natural meekness, would be just as big a star, yet, even with these handicaps, he may well climb to the status of those others. Simply put, he is unstoppable in the ring. Or is he?
He claims he would beat anyone at 154 pounds. Even with some power being lost due to a weight drain, I take his claim to be accurate. He would KO both Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Floyd Mayweather Jr at 154, and this is saying something, for Alvarez is a steel tank who has never been knocked down and is rarely wobbled. Does the fact that he would KO Mayweather at 154 pounds mean that he is the better fighter than Mayweather and should be considered pound for pound #1? I don’t think so, for Mayweather is naturally a welterweight or junior welterweight, and Golovkin is far too big and too strong for Mayweather. Mayweather dominates those his size, below his size, and even slightly above his size, but there is no point in asking him to defeat someone who heavyweight punching power. Of course, Golovkin would KO Erislandy Lara, Demetrius Andrade, Carlos Molina, James Kirkland or any other challenger in that division.
What about 160 pounds, can anyone threaten him there? No, his claim and the claim of Abel Sanchez is accurate there as well. More than anything, for the legacy of Cotto, for his health and his reputation, I would rather have him fight Canelo (which is actually a fairly even and quite compelling fight) than get obliterated at MSG in front of his fans, and possibly damage his health trying to be a tough guy. It is much better that he lose to Alvarez or vacate the belt rather than face Golovkin. And Golovkin would easily KO Peter Quillin, Sam Soliman, or any other 160 pound fighter. Hopefully, if they ever fight, Cotto will learn the lesson of Macklin and Geale, but most likely he won’t so I see a KO within 6 for Golovkin if they do end up fighting.
In my opinion, it is only 168 that Golovkin would begin to face problems, and really, there is no reason that he should for any reason go higher than this. Carl Froch is apparently not willing to face Golovkin, and there are reports that indicate even Sergey Kovalev was not interested in serious sparring with Golovkin due to his punching power. Only two names would actually provide a challenge for Golovkin here: Andre Ward and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
(1) Andre Ward – Andre Ward is still in my opinion the best fighter on the planet not named Floyd Mayweather. Golovkin has gotten the press recently, due to an amazing 17 (or so) KO streak, but Ward is by far the better inside fighter, the naturally bigger man, and the uglier fighter with plenty of boxing tricks up his sleeve. At this point, I would favor Ward to take a decision from Ward due to Ward controlling the type of fight it is. If Ward does not do this, he will suffer a KO, but I respect his boxing skill enough to think that he can avoid this. So, I would say Ward has about a 70% chance of winning a UD that is reasonably close.
(2) Chavez Jr. – Chavez Jr. may have been taken to boxing school by Martinez, but he in turn did quite a bit to end the career of Martinez. On the one hand, a brilliant and athletic boxer was bound to fade quickly, on the other hand, the punching power and durability of Chavez played a big role. Arguably, pound for pound Chavez Jr. has the best chin in boxing, and though he is very hittable and yields ring generalship to elite or very skilled fighters, his durability and size, as well as his punching power would give him a chance against Golovkin. So, the most likely outcome would be a UD win for Golovkin or even a stoppage, but I would give Chavez about a 35% chance of winning.
(3) Alvarez – the thing that would most help Alvarez in a fight with Golovkin is his speed and combinations. GGG is relatively easy to hit among the truly elite fighters, but of course as the world found out yesterday, he can punch back when hit as well. The other thing Alvarez has is his body type – cast iron – and the fact that he naturally prefers to outbox fighters that are slower and come forward like GGG. So, Alvarez in my opinion has a better chance against GGG than any other 154 pound or 160 pound fighter, and even than any super middleweight save for the above two. The problem, however, is that Alvarez has only taken punches from people at 154, and if even the brother of Miguel Cotto wobbled him, a GGG knockout at some point seems inevitable. He has perhaps a 10-15% chance of beating Golovkin.
So, in sum, in my opinion Golovkin is (virtually) unstoppable, and his dominance is comparable to the dominance of fighters from other eras who dominated their division. I hope that his handlers will not have him squander his prime prematurely by taking on Ward or Chavez Jr., but instead focus on cleaning out the middleweight division, which will add to both his legend and his bank account. If he does in fact end up fighting Chavez Jr. or Ward and beating them, KO or not, he deserves to be a HOF fighter and considered as dominant a Pacquiao in the 2000s or Roy Jones in 1990s. It will be a great ride watching and enjoying the achievement of Golovkin going forward. I put him currently at p4p #3, until if and when he takes down Ward.
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