floyd333 By Jay McIntyre: Writer’s Note: This is an adjusted analysis. Visit this page for the full analysis: http://a-neutral-corner.blogspot.ca/2014/04/my-two-cents-mayweather-vs-maidana.html

It was a fight that took a while to announce, but in late February Floyd “Money” Mayweather (45-0, 26 KO’s) finally declared that on May 3rd he would be fighting Marcos “El Chino” Maidana (34-3. 31 KO’s). There is often a great deal of hype surrounding the mere mention of Mayweather’s next opponent because for 45 fights, he has remained undefeated. The fans wonder: could this one be the one blemish the “0” that he has touted for so long? Boxing math would indicate that Maidana doesn’t stand much of a chance and shouldn’t even be fighting Mayweather. After all, he was one of two – alongside Amir Khan (28-3, 19 KO’s) – that were in various polls to decide the next ‘winner’ of Mayweather’s lottery. Maidana lost to Khan by unanimous decision back in 2010, and yet he was still chosen as the next.

This did not add up to some, and the simple truth is that boxing math rarely adds up (nor should it, in many cases). To Maidana’s credit, he is a hard-nosed puncher, with vastly improved boxing ability, and an unflappable will to embarrass the oddsmakers. While Mayweather has faced punchers, and Maidana has faced boxers, it’s not a safe assumption to believe that they have faced the opposing style that awaits them on May 3rd. Let’s have a look at what both men bring to the ring in this installment of “My Two Cents”.

Floyd Mayweather

Praise: economy of motion, defensive master, very high boxing IQ (ring generalship and overall technique), skill with both hands

Concern: prone to effective jabbers, can be overly responsive to feints

Mayweather has been frustrated, wobbled, and made quite mortal on several occasions throughout his career, but the trouble with all of this is that these are glimmers – the briefest of moments across many fights. It is hard to collate these snapshots of weakness and lay out a blueprint to defeat Mayweather because even in those moments of weakness he finds a way to adjust and overcome his initial setbacks. The truth is that he is about as complete as a boxer can get these days and – in spite of a very (some might say decadently) flashy personal life – he is incredibly disciplined and focused when preparing for a fight.

Jab

The most important punch to any boxer is the jab, and Mayweather is fully aware of this. His jab is sharp, well-timed, and fired from the hip or shoulder height. He shoots it to the head and body, pumps it out as a measuring stick for his offense, and uses it to stutter the offense of his opponent’s. In his 2010 fight against Juan Manuel Marquez, for example, he leaned on this punch heavily to continually prevent Marquez from being able to set up his own attack. Also, given that Marquez is best at countering his opponents with his combinations, Mayweather would use the jab and then slide out of range, leaving Marquez winging punches ineffectually.

Defense

Mayweather is probably the most well known proponent of the “Philly Shell” style of defensive posture. With the right hand at the chin and the left arm draped across the mid-section, very few targets are presented for an opponent to target. The right hand can catch jabs or block left hooks while the right shoulder deflects the opponent’s right hands and the the right arm blocks the opponent’s body punches. While this is clearly the base from which he operates, it would be too predictable to game plan for. So, while he does employ it on a very frequent basis, he also varies his stance and positioning to keep his opponent guessing.

Any defense can be cracked open if you sap it correctly. But if the defender is able to adjust his defensive parameters and use multiple styles, then the attacker must rethink their offensive stratagem. Now take this premise and imagine the opponent varying their defenses several times throughout a single three minute interval. Defense is all about anticipation, but offense is all about exploitation. The winner of this game of “cat and mouse” is entirely dependent on whether or not the anticipator can out-move the exploiter. Mayweather knows there is no complete style, so he uses all styles of defense to become a complete boxer.

Counter-punching

From his “Philly Shell” (pictured above), Mayweather will be able to land three of his preferred power punches – the left hook, the straight right and the right uppercut. Make no mistake, against Maidana he will have ample opportunity to play the counter-fighter. All three of the aforementioned punches are power punches and Mayweather will use each, depending on the opening his opponent provides when attacking.

Left hook – Against a jabber that drops his rear hand, or a fighter telegraphing his right hand, Mayweather will throw a compact left hook, because in both cases the rear hand of his opponent is not protecting his chin.

Straight right – Against an opponent with a slow jab Mayweather fires his very quick straight right hand to beat the tardy jab as it comes back after he parries it. Also, against an opponent throwing a looping left hook, Mayweather will throw a straight right punch inside that hook and therefore land first.

Right Uppercut – When a fighter leans his head over his lead foot he no longer is tucking his chin and is sacrificing the defense of the lead shoulder. There is also an open space underneath that boxer’s chin for an uppercut Against an over-eager opponent that is leaning his head over his lead foot Mayweather will time his right uppercut.

A good jabber however can frustrate Mayweather’s counter-punching for several reasons. First of all, the jab is the one punch that puts the puncher at least risk. Secondly, Mayweather’s three best counters – his left hook, his straight right, and his right uppercut all travel a longer distance than the jab and thus will lose that race. Maidana, however is far from a flawless puncher. If Maidana drops his right hand when jabbing, he will get countered with a left hook, and if he leans on his front foot and accidentally exposes his chin in order to land the jab, Mayweather will find a home for that right uppercut. Lastly, if Maidana throws a slow jab, Mayweather will parry and counter over it with a straight right. But, at the end of the day, an astute jabber with good form can annoy Mayweather, and Maidana has shown us that his jab is getting much, much better.

Footwork

Mayweather’s wins over Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez were not as exciting as his prior fight against Miguel Cotto, but they were impressive displays of effective footwork. Perhaps the best way to put it is this: if your footwork is not noticeable, but is keeping you at a place of advantage, then it is damn fine footwork. Certain fighters – like Pernell Whitaker – have employed flashy footwork on occasion in an effort to showboat and irritate their opponents, but the reality is that the more subtle the technique, the more effective it actually is. Part of this subtlety lies in the constant movement and micro-adjustments he makes with his feet to keep his line of attack and desired distance, while shuffling slightly off of his opponent’s line. This was very evident in the Guerrero fight, and it will be an important aspect in his fight on May 3rd.

Footwork can also be something as subtle as turning your foot. When fighting at jabbing range, Mayweather will, on occasion, turn his rear foot so that his toe is facing forward. In his fight against Robert Guerrero he did this and it moved the position of his entire body. Turning his foot, consequently, rotated his hip forward. Where the hips go, the shoulders follow and Mayweather now shaved off several inches of distance for his right hand to travel. In the two frames below, Mayweather uses a distracting jab, and then springs off his back foot to land his right hand on Guerrero. Guerreo tried to back up out of range, but did not account for Mayweather rotating his foot and bringing his right hand closer. Guerrero not only had less time to respond, but also did not adjust for the extra distance that Mayweather’s punch could travel. Consequently, he was caught right on the end of the right hand.

Shifty Business?

There’s no question that Mayweather is an astute craftsman of the sport. What has been observed by many, however, is his proclivity to add a mixture of less-than-virtuous tactics when fighting. This is not to say the he would not be a great boxer without these eyebrow raising antics, but it does beg the question: why? I certainly don’t have an answer to that question, but what I do have is this series of shots which captures one of these “tendencies”. In his fight against Mayweather threw his left hook and straight right sucker punches as Victor Ortiz tried to shake hands and apologize and this could have caused serious damage. In his most recent fight against Saul Alvarez, Mayweather covered his mouth with his glove to smother his breathing while in the clinch. These are just some of the things that Mayweather does, but doesn’t have to do because he’s such a good boxer.

Final Thoughts

If there’s anything that Mayweather’s fights against Oscar De La Hoya, Zab Judah, Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto showed us, it’s that a composed, experienced fighter – undaunted by Mayweather’s “0” – can find opportunities to exploit. Mayweather can be the victim of a utilitarian jab as it can make him (over)react and set him up to counters. The trouble is that he has a rounded enough game that he can either counter quickly, or get away using his feet and not give his opponent enough of an opening for their setup. The real question is whether or not Maidana has the skill set and experience to either create or exploit these slivers in Mayweather’s overall game.

To put it simply, Mayweather should look to fence with his jab to establish supremacy at that long range against Maidana, and also use his footwork to create opportunities for Maidana to make mistakes. As they say in the business: “make him miss, make him pay.”

Marcos Maidana

Praise>: solid power with both hands, improved use of jab, stamina, heart, and durability

Concern: gets heavy on his front foot, little head movement, over-commits to punches

If there’s anything that Maidana’s win over Adrien Broner last December has told us, it is that Maidana is improving with each fight since he has been cornered by Robert Garcia. Mayweather opened his fight against Alvarez by leading aggressively behind a calculated jab, don’t expect him to do this against Maidana. If Maidana chooses to sit back and wait for Mayweather to lead it will be a long night for him. He will need to use his recently refined boxing game to jab his way toward Mayweather where his strong punching can takes it toll.

Jab

The best version of Maidana’s jab was the one he employed against Adrien Broner. When he does throw the jab, he lands it with the authority of the “lead jolt” described by Jack Dempsey in his boxing manual – http://www.amazon.com/Championship-Fighting-Explosive-Punching-Aggressive/dp/0913111007/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1398494262&sr=8-1&keywords=championship+fighting – “Championship Fighting”. Without telegraphing, the boxer falls forward letting gravity move him as he steps. This reduces telegraphing and adds body weight (read: power) behind the jab.

Another way in which Maidana used the jab to great effect was by using it to cloak his left hook. Opening the second round, Maidana established the jab, and created a pattern to get the desired response from Broner. Anticipating the jab, Broner would move his rear arm forward to stop that punch to his head and body, but that left the side of his head wide open for Maidana to land his left hook.

Striking Versatility

Maidana racked up a lot of miles on Broner’s body because when he pushed him to the ropes, he was able to mix up his lefts and rights to both the body and head. If one did not find a home, it created an opening for another to find its mark. When boxing in the centre of the ring, again he used the jab, or even just the threat of the jab to scaffold other attacks. Broner eventually grew so preoccupied with adjusting to the left hook, that Maidana’s overhand right began to land with regularity. Since Maidana didn’t rely on one punch in particular, but rather the interplay of his punching arsenal, he was able to floor Broner twice and give him a serious beating over a twelve round period.

Pressure

Maidana’s stamina is incredible and he relies on this to maintain a high-tempo style of aggression which irritates his opponents and takes them out of their comfort zone. While he has been criticized for leaning too heavily on his front foot while giving chase, and looping his punches too much on the outside, these flaws have gradually diminished over the course of his last four fights. Now Maidana’s improved overall game allows him to crowd his opponent’s more safely, and create opportunities for his power punches to land, especially when he has them along the ropes.

Final Thoughts

Maidana still has some bad habits – he has a frequent enough tendency to drop the other hand when throwing his punching hand. He also gets a bit too heavy on the front foot when giving chase. Since Broner did not move away enough when he fought Maidana in December, we did not see this flaw – but it’s still there.

The king of punches – the jab – will be what Maidana needs to use in order to assert himself in the ring. Floyd is very aloof and will pop out of range, leaving his opponent’s swinging at air, so Maidana will have to use his jab to back up Mayweather and get him to the ropes. When Mayweather fought Oscar De La Hoya in 2007, it was observed by the late trainer/analyst Emmanuel Stewart that the jab was “the key to Oscar’s aggression…because that will make Mayweather bend back, twist his body and then he [Oscar] is effective after that.” While Mayweather can roll, pull back, or parry the jab, Maidana will want to follow up his jab with a sharp right hand (not a long looping one, but one that rolls his elbow upward so it can arc over the shoulder, when necessary). If Mayweather pops out of range from the jab, Maidana should take that space and continue to crowd Mayweather to the ropes. Cotto bloodied Mayweather along the ropes in 2012, and in the eleventh round of the aforementioned fight with De La Hoya, Mayweather was stunned by a concussive right hand when laying on the ropes as well. Jabbing Mayweather to the ropes in order to land his power shots may simple enough, but this could easily force Maidana into his old habits of sloppy chasing.

Above all else, staying disciplined and making use of the jab to set up his power shots will be Maidana’s keys to victory.

Don’t Compare Broner to Mayweather

Going into the Maidana vs Broner fight many people had written off Maidana as a reckless brawler (I did not, (http://a-neutral-corner.blogspot.ca/2013/12/my-two-cents-marcos-maidana-vs-adrien.html) – see Maidana winning that fight before it got underway and that Broner would dismantle with with his hand speed, power and defense. The truth was that Broner was a sitting duck the whole night because not only did he stand in front of Maidana for most of the rounds, he is also not as defensively sound. Broner’s “Philly Shell” is flawed in the sense that he is far too upright and his left elbow doesn’t protect his body. Given that he has relied on it in the lower weight classes so much to the point where he does little else, he was in store for a rude awakening at welterweight. Mayweather moves his feet better and has so much more depth to his game. If you are expecting events to play out in a similar manner to December, you are sorely mistaken.

Prediction

Floyd Mayweather will win by unanimous decision. This is not a statement born out of the repetitions of the past, but rather the sound truth that while Maidana has power, it will struggle to find a home on the cagey Mayweather. Conversely, Mayweather won’t have the power to knock out Maidana, nor will he stick in one spot too long to try and finish the fight due to Maidana’s durability and power. Showtime’s “All Access” series is keen to play up the quiet, virtuous hero against the hubristic bad-boy, and this is an old story in boxing. Historically the most intriguing match-ups always had foils – good vs evil, blue collar vs white collar, smooth boxer vs sturdy swarmer. Sonny Liston was one such ‘bad guy’ to the emerging Cassius Clay (now Muhammad Ali) once upon a time as well. I am not drawn to this fight due to this particularly contrived dynamic, nor am I drawn to it because – like many others – I am keen to see Mayweather lose. I will watch this fight because good boxing deserves to be watched. Expect post-fight analysis from my “Aftermath” series, as per usual following my pre-fight ruminations from “My Two Cents”.

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