By Chris Rooks: Most boxing analysis, articles, and blogs suggest it’s down to two select ‘contenders for supremacy’ in the light welterweight division. Danny Garcia and Lucas Matthysse are supposed to settle it in their possible upcoming fight as the championship match of the 140 pound tournament Golden Boy has been putting on.
Amir Khan’s glass chin has been repeatedly exposed, particularly by Garcia. Zab Judah lost to both Garcia and Matthysse, except that was only reflected on one of the scorecards, and most people think current IBF Welterweight Champ Devon Alexander also lost to Matthysse. Amir Khan conqueror Lamont Peterson was recently annihilated by Matthysse in less than 3 rounds.
Juan Manual Marquez doesn’t really count at 140 at this late stage of his career and Brandon Rios has also moved up to 147 for his payday fight against Manny Pacquiao. Besides Rios recently lost last march to the only other fighter I see in this equation. Obviously if you read the title of my article and/or have been watching the light welterweight division for the last few years you know I’m talking about “Mile High” Mike Alvarado (34-1) of Denver, CO., who will likely be staging a homecoming on HBO aimed at October 19th in his home city of Denver. His promoter, Bob Arum of Top Rank, stated in the Rios-Alvarado II Post-Fight Press Conference, after Alvarado defeated Rios via unanimous decision, that “it’s always been Mikes dream to defend his Championship in front of his home crowd,” in this case his newly won belt, the interim WBO light welterweight title from the Rios victory. So the seeds were sown then.
Alvarado has filled up Denver venues in previous fights and this upcoming fight, his first title defense, in the wake of all the Rios-Alvarado drama, should be another money maker for HBO and Top Rank. Ruslan Provodnikov has already agreed to be the contender for that fight, which will happen if Arum can give Alvarado what he’s asking for and pay him out similarly to what Rios received in his defeat to Alvarado. If you’re wondering why Alvarado might be having an issue with the money, just consider the shaft the Mike must have felt he received when Arum gave Rios the nod for the Pacquiao sweepstakes this November in Macao and not him.
Instead he can face Provodnikov, a very dangerous Rios-like mauler, who proved that point against 147 WBO Champ Tim Bradley in a controversial loss last March where he nearly took Bradley out in the 1st and end of the 12th. One more round would have been it. Provod will be every bit as relentless as Rios was against Alvarado in their previous two fights. And this is where I’m going to get the point. I see the fight between Alvarado and Provodnikov going similarly to Alvarado’s decision over Rios with Provodnikov being set up as the fall guy and a destined gatekeeper for Top Ranks welterweights and light welterweights.
Cut man Rudy Hernandez has basically taken over as Alvarado’s trainer/corner man, and is turning a naturally gifted athlete, late starter in boxing, who has relied on that natural gift while taking chances and banging with guys that have deep amateur backgrounds, (remind you of anyone? Perhaps Sergio Martinez?), and polished his already respectable technical boxing game, or at the very least his willingness to implement it in his last fight, the unanimous decision over Rios.
If Mike can bring that to Ruslan, he may get his face shredded again and possibly go life or death, but he doesn’t care, and I’d bet he would win. Take a look at his previous fights with Breidis Prescott (in his prime according to the late Emmanuel Stewart) and Mauricio Herrera. What you will see is a balanced mix of speed and power, an iron chin, great heart, unmatched stamina and the ability to adapt. He always seems to get better as the rounds progress and he adjusted to his opponents.
Alvarado is not just a banger as people try to pigeon-hole him. He’s developed a nice bicycle to go along with his footwork for offense, with reflexes and hand speed to match his power. Jim Lampley and Max Kellerman of HBO were commenting in the recent Rios fight, as a replay of an Alvarado combination landing on Rios aired, that the clip was in real-time! Because it is a total blur.
His in and out of jail issues have certainly held his career back a lot until this point, but I have the feeling that might be over. Arum seems to feel the same and will try to match him properly. I see Rios instead of Alvarado as the sacrificial lamb being offered to Pacquiao, whether or not that game plan works out for Arum.
In all fairness Rios is much like Pacquiao’s former sparring partner Provodnikov. They are both slower, flat-footed sluggers that only have a forward gear, whereas Mike has footwork, changes stance, throws well timed pot shots and is a lightning fast, slick counter-puncher, traits that assisted Manny Pacquiao in getting himself knocked out by Marquez last December. Regardless of whether Pacquiao wins or loses to Rios, I don’t see Arum matching him with Alvarado next if Alvarado beats Ruslan.
I still feel Alvarado is a better fighter than Rios and that a third fight would most likely be a more lopsided version of the second where Rios looked confused about how to unload his offense and was ultimately decisioned by Alvarado’s superior stamina and ability to adapt, sweeping the latter half of the fight. This is also what happened to Prescott who was clearly winning on points when Alvarado adjusted mid-fight and launched a spectacular comeback culminating with a crushing 10th round stoppage of Prescott.
Alvarado as a Top Rank fighter has limited options but he certainly has the ability to beat guys like Rios and Provodnikov. I actually think he may have had more of a chance at knocking out Pacquiao that Rios, and I’m not buying the finger injury as the reason Alvarado was not chosen to fight Pacquiao next. Similarly, before the second Rios fight everyone seemed to be writing Alvarado off after a stoppage Alvarado and his camp felt was a little early, while 4 of the 6 rounds before that stoppage had gone in Alvarado’s favor. I think Alvarado just needs to accept it as a lapse in judgment to stand in front of Rios, and he has learned that lesson.
Seeing that the previously undefeated Alvarado was such an underdog in the Rios rematch, I placed an online bet for Alvarado. And sure enough. I also see Alvarado winning by unanimous decision against Provodnikov, or perhaps a late TKO. People may say ‘how can you compare him with Sergio Martinez?’ or ‘Rios will kill him in the third fight’ or ‘Provodnikov will KO him early.’ But one of my favorite sayings is ‘time will tell’. Let’s see.
I think Alvarado has the opportunity of defending his championship for years, especially with Arum dictating his future and continuing to improve under the tutelage of Rudy Hernandez. Sure he has already been through wars, but I don’t see any signs of wear down yet. He was as fast as ever in his last fight, really putting on a performance against Rios in the final 6 rounds, due to his inhuman stamina and natural athleticism. I call him a strong, peaking 33yr old champion come the end of this month.
I think Alvarado has as good a chance as any of becoming top dog at 140, whether or not he is recognized because of his inability to fight Golden Boy’s stable of light welterweights. Either way I am surprised that I am the first to write about this.
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