By Davey Hogg: I’m sure that if you asked any boxing enthusiast only a year ago whether or not Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao would be competitive, it would be hard to imagine many of them saying no. After all, “Money” was coming of an impressive masterclass against future hall of famer, Shane Mosley, in a fight where he showed he had true grit to add to his seemingly endless talents.

Also, “Pacman” had just dismantled (and very nearly stopped) the iron-chinned Mexican Antonio Margarito in devastating fashion. Punishing his opponent for 12 one sided rounds with super-fast combinations which he landed at will, which ultimately resulted in Margarito having surgery to repair an orbital bone that could have ended his career. No question, this was a match made in boxing heaven. A lightening fast counter puncher with other worldly defensive abilities against a swarming pressure fighter with blinding speed and power in both hands, classic.

Then things began to look a little different. A May 2011 meeting with Shane Mosley saw the usually razor-sharp Pacquiao looking a little ragged after a very decent start in which he hurt and sent the very durable Mosley to the canvas in the third round (thus causing Shane to fight defensively for the remainder of the fight). Though eventually prevailing with a convincing points victory, that little bit of magic seemed to be missing from Manny’s work, leading to pondering’s from boxing fans around the world as to whether Pacquiao’s other profession as a congressman in his homeland of The Philippines was beginning to take his focus out of the fight game a little.

The following September witnessed Mayweather stepping into the ring with WBC welterweight champion Victor Ortiz, a young strong southpaw coming off undoubtedly the biggest win of his career in an excellent 12 round war with a then unbeaten Andre Berto. The fight was widely anticipated not only due to it being Floyd’s first in 15 months, but also due to Ortiz’s brilliant show of heart and determination in his previous outing. Mayweather was a big favourite, but it would be a great fight. The reality on the night was a little more bizarre. After nearly four completed rounds of consistently out boxing his youthful foe, Mayweather was pinned against the ropes and headbutted by Ortiz, prompting immediate uproar and resulting in a point deduction for the Kansas native. Unbeknown to “Vicious Vic”, this action would be his downfall. As referee Joe Cortez ordered the bout to continue, there was confusion with the timekeepers, causing the veteran to briefly take his eyes away from the matter at hand. Meeting Mayweather in the middle of the ring, Ortiz again began to apologize to Floyd (something he did in abundance straight after the foul, even kissing his outraged opponent on the cheek). What seemed to be an quiet acceptance from Mayweather was quickly followed by an extremely quick left hook, right cross combination that sent Ortiz crashing to the canvas. Joe Cortez (still in the midst of the muddle with the timekeepers) began the count, which Ortiz failed to beat. Knockout victory for Floyd in odd yet legal circumstances.

November of the same year almost brought disaster for Manny Pacquiao when he stepped into the ring for a third fight with long time Mexican rival Juan Manuel Marquez. The two fighter’s previous encounters had been hard fought and very close. The first fight ended in a draw, the second saw Pacquiao prevail by split decision. The rubber match was widely believed to be a much easier assignment for Pacman as he had since successfully made the transition to welterweight and was now used to fighting bigger men, while Marquez still resided at lightweight and would have to bulk up to 147 (something he had been unsuccessful in doing when challenging Floyd Mayweather over two years earlier). The pre-fight opinion was that this version of Manny Pacquiao would walk through Marquez, maybe with ease. What transpired on the night couldn’t of been more different. Marquez, an excellent counter puncher, fought beautifully and at times made Pacquiao look cumbersome. Nevertheless, Manny kept applying his trademark pressure to at least make most of the rounds close. As the twelfth round concluded, the general feeling appeared to be that Marquez had won clearly and that boxing fans had witnessed a major upset. This wasn’t to be the case and Pacquiao was awarded the fight by a majority decision, inciting outrage among thousands of the fans in attendance and the millions watching at home. The Ring Magazine voted the decision as their 2011 robbery of the year.

So then, is this still an intriguing match-up? Is it still hard to call based on what we’ve seen over the last 12 months? Yes, this fight will generate a phenomenal amount of interest in our sport, and no doubt make history from a financial standpoint. But, for me at least, Pacquiao’s last two performances have been a huge indication as to how he would perform in the ring with Mayweather. In the Mosley fight, Manny’s form seemed to suffer when a third round knock down caused his opponent to fight more defensively. The third Marquez fight showed that Pacman still has major trouble with a great counter puncher, even despite being the bigger, stronger man on the night. When you take these two observations into consideration, you have to wonder if this would simply be a bad style match-up for Manny Pacquiao. After all, Floyd Mayweather Jr is a defensive genius and would use his talent for evasiveness to gain an advantage, not just to survive as Mosley did. He is also an exceptional counter puncher, a bigger and much faster one than Marquez. Should the fight be made, it will be great for boxing, but surely there can only be one conclusion.