By William Mackay: For WBA/WBC super middleweight champion Andre Ward (25-0, 13 KO’s) to have a good chance of winning against Chad Dawson (31-1, 17 KO’s) on September 8th, he’s going to have to keep the fight on the inside when they battle on Showtime at the Oracle Arena, in Oakland, California.

Ward is a good fighter on the outside, but he’s not nearly as good fighting at a distance compared to when he’s in close. Against the long-armed Dawson, Ward will be giving up five inches in reach and he won’t be able to reach Dawson on a consistent basis if the fight is held on the outside.

Ward also needs to make sure he gets off his shots first like he normally does against slower opponents. This might prove to be difficult against Dawson because he’s really quick and good at getting out of the way of his opponents shots. Dawson is skilled at both ducking and blocking punches. Ward is going to find out how tough it is to hit Dawson, because that’s one of his biggest assets.

Dawson needs to keep it on the outside and not let Ward rush him to try and force him to fight in close. Dawson can counter Ward’s shots by staying outside and timing him with his right hook to catch Ward rushing forward to try and force the fight to the inside. Ward barely out-pointed Carl Froch in his last fight, and Dawson clearly a step above Froch in boxing ability. Sakio Bika also gave Ward a ton of problems in losing to him last year. Dawson has a lot to look at in spotting Ward’s vulnerabilities.

Ward has to force Dawson to fight his game because he can’t win in a fight where the action takes place on the outside. Dawson has the better power, the better jab and he throws better combinations. Ward is more of a fighter that lands when he’s right on top of his opponent in a clinch or when he has his opponent wedged against the ropes and trapped. Ward can land effectively when he has an opponent stuck with nowhere to go. Dawson has to be smart not to let Ward get him in that situation to begin with.