By Scott Gilfoid: Greg Leon, the manager for Allan Green (29-1, 20 KO’s), has a rosy outlook for his fighter. In the latest Fight Camp 360 episode, Leon says “We stretch [Andre] Ward, we get three points. [Andre] Dirrell beats [Arthur] Abraham, we’re tied for the lead after the first fight.” That seems like a pretty far-fetched wish on Leon’s part. He might as well wish that he could win the lottery, because I don’t give Green even the slightest chance of knocking out Ward. Believe me, if there’s going to be any knocking out done, it’s going to be Ward knocking out Green on April 24th in their stage 2 Super Six tournament fight in Oakland, California.

Green, 30, is taking Jermain Taylor’s spot in the Super Six tourney after Taylor was brutally knocked out in the 12th round by Abraham on October 17th last year. Many people thought that if Taylor had stayed in the tournament, Taylor would have lost his stage 2 fight against Ward and stage 3 bout against Mikkel Kessler.

Those losses would have excluded Taylor from making it to the semi finals of the Super Six tournament. Green seems like a duplicate to Taylor in my view, except that he hasn’t been knocked out yet. I expect that to happen against Ward on April 24th. I like how Leon seems upbeat about what could theoretically happen for Green if he was to beat Ward by knockout, because I certainly see Dirrell beating Abraham without any problems on March 27th.

However, Green just doesn’t seem to have the skills needed to even compete with Ward, a 2004 Olympic Gold Medalist for the United States. I think Green is a good fighter when he’s facing over-matched 2nd tier opposition, but he’s looked bloody awful when he’s been put in with 1st tier fighters like Tarvis Simms and Edison Miranda. Green lost to Miranda by a 10 round decision in 2007, and struggled hard to beat Simms by a 10 round decision last year.

Green hits hard enough to knock out any one in the Super Six tournament if he was to commit to his punches and go all out, but I don’t think he’ll do that. I picture Green fighting like a timid rabbit against Ward, pawing with a jab and taking severe punishment until Ward ultimately takes him out. If Green was to think of this fight as a do-or-die situation and attack Ward like this was his last chance, I think Green would have a slight chance of scoring a knockout.

I’d give Green like a 2% chance of knocking Ward, which is better than the 0% chance I’m giving him to outbox Ward. As such, if I was Green, I’d jump all over Ward from the opening bell and go down swinging. At least in that way, Green would win respect by giving the Showtime viewers and exciting fight and impressing boxing fans with his offensive fire power for as long as the fight lasts. But will Green do that? Probably not. I think he’s going to run and try to survive as long as he can and end up losing a lopsided 12 round decision or maybe get stopped.