By Dave Lahr: Former International Boxing Federation light heavyweight champion Antonio Tarver (27-5, 19 KOs) is being written off for lost by many in the boxing world for his challenge of IBF champion Chad Dawson (27-0, 17 KOs) this Saturday night at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tarver, 40, lost by a 12-round decision last year in October and fought in a passive manner for most of the fight, working on trying to block the many incoming shots that were being thrown his way by the young, speedy 6’3″ Dawson.

This time, Tarver promises to start quickly and to bring the attack on Dawson to make sure he doesn’t fall behind in the fight like last time. Dawson says that if Tarver comes out quicker, then Dawson will knock Tarver out by the 6th round. Having seen the first fight, it’s hard not to agree with what Dawson is saying because Tarver seemed to be holding back with his punches in an effort not to get hurt or knocked down.

When Tarver finally did attack Dawson aggressively in the 12th round, Tarver ended up getting knocked down by Dawson by a right hand. Obviously, the defeat is bothering Tarver, because he’s never been beaten so easily before in his career like he was against Dawson. Tarver points out that he has a perfect record of wins (3-0) coming off a defeat.

However, those wins were many moons ago and over lesser opponents than Dawson. At 40, any of Tarver’s accomplishments in the past hold little relevance to what he’s capable of doing now due to the aging that has taken place over the years.

If this was a time capsule and Tarver could take himself back to 2004, perhaps Tarver might be in a better position to avenge his defeat. However, Tarver is now older and is facing a bigger, stronger, faster and better mover in Dawson compared to his own skills and doesn’t appear capable of matching up with Dawson at this point. Part of what made Tarver so good was his southpaw style.

There’s no advantage for Tarver in this fight because Dawson is also a southpaw, and is even taller than Tarver at 6’3”. Tarver probably isn’t going to be able to outwork Dawson even if he tries, so he’s going to have to focus more on timing Dawson and trying to catch him with a big left hand in between punches.

It’s a definite possibility, because Dawson has been down twice before in his pro career, and seems to be vulnerable to big punchers. Tarver isn’t a big puncher, however, so he’s going to need to work on trying to catch Dawson by surprise with a big shot. It’s going to be tough, because Dawson can take a heck of shot without going down but it remains perhaps the best chance for Tarver in this fight.

Tarver needs to hold off with his power shots for awhile and get Dawson used to be hitting with moderately hard punches. Later on in the fight, Tarver needs to suddenly start loading up with his shots and hope that he can catch Dawson napping. Like I said, it’s Tarver’s only chance of winning.