Bellew vs. Flores analysis and prediction

By Boxing News - 10/15/2016 - Comments

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By Scott Gilfoid: WBC cruiserweight champion Tony Bellew (27-2-1, 17 KOs) will put his WBC title on the line tonight against challenger BJ Flores (32-2-1, 20 KOs), who was picked out from the No.14 spot in the World Boxing Council’s rankings. Bellew is talking big, as if he’s facing the best contender in the cruiserweight division rather than a handpicked fighter nearing 40.

Flores is 37, and it seems pretty obvious why Bellew and his promoter Eddie Hearn picked him rather than his #1 WBC contender Mairis Briedis, who Bellew was supposed to be facing for his first defense. If the WBC had forced Bellew to face his mandatory challenger in Briedis tonight, we’d likely be seeing the handing over of a title ceremony from Bellew to Briedis instead of what could be a mismatch in the Bellew-Flores fight.

Personally, I give Flores a good chance of beating Bellew, because he’s not a top level champion in my estimation. Bellew isn’t in the same league as the other champions at cruiserweight like Denis Lebedev and Oleksandr Usyk. Bellew is just a guy that beat Ilunga Makabu to win the vacant WBC title last May. I don’t think either of those guys had ANY business fighting for the vacant WBC cruiserweight title.

When you look at the top contenders in the WBC’s rankings, there’s NO WAY on earth that Bellew and Makabu should have been fighting for the WBC title instead of the more talented Marco Huck and Krzysztof Wlodarczyk. Now that would have been a fight to see. Those are two T-A-L-E-N-T-E-D fighters.

Bellew said this to skysports.com about his fight tonight against 37-year-old Flores:
“I always train like a challenger, don’t worry about that. There is always pressure on you in every fight you’re in but Saturday night does bring something new to the table. Where I’ve always been the hunter, always searching for the bigger fight, on Saturday night I become the hunted. I have got the prized possession and that may have changed but when it comes to me, nothing has changed, physically or mentally. I am ready for a war on Saturday, no matter what it takes, and I’ll go to wherever I’ll have to go to keep by green belt.”

The bigger fight that Bellew is yapping about is his proposed match against heavyweight David Haye in early 2017. If Bellew wins this fight against Flores, then he’ll very likely face Haye next year in a fight at heavyweight. I’m not sure what’s going to happen with Bellew’s mandatory challenger Mairis Brieidis though. Unless the WBC lets Bellew skip over defending his belt against Briedis for a second time, we could see a new champion.

I don’t think the WBC will force Bellew to defend against Brieidis though, even though he was technically supposed to be defending against him in his first defense. When a champion wins a vacant world title, they’re supposed to defend against the No.1 contender in their first defense. Briedis is ranked #1 and he’s supposed to be the one that Bellew is facing tonight in his maiden defense of his WBC belt.

Instead, Bellew is facing bottom fringe contender #14 WBC BJ Flores. Do you wonder why Flores was picked out over Briedis? I know I do. I think it’s painfully obvious. Flores is seen as the easy mark by Bellew, so they’re going for a much more winnable fight against him rather than take on Briedis and likely lose by a knockout against the unbeaten Latvian fighter. Brieidis is no joke, and I think Bellew and his promoter Eddie Hearn realize that.

If they thought Brieidis was an easy mark, then they’d likely gotten the mandatory out of the way by facing him tonight, don’t you think? It’s not as if the Bellew-Flores fight is a big one. I think the promotion of this fight has been nothing short of terrible. Flores hasn’t done a lot of trash talking, and he’s been pretty much invisible. Even at the final press conference and weigh-in, Flores said very little and seemed almost like he wasn’t there.

Clearly, Briedis would have been the better choice for Bellew if he wanted to make some noise with the marketing for the fight to the British boxing fans. Of course, Brieidis would likely be coming into the fight against Bellew as the favorite, and for good reason. The guy has got talent, major talent. So instead of Bellew being the underdog against Brieidis, the WBC has let him face bottom contender BJ Flores in a fight where Bellew is the favorite. This is pretty sad, because Team Bellew has picked from the bottom rather than the top of the division. It’s supposed to be a mismatch.

Like I said, I still see Flores as having a good chance of beating Bellew, and that’s because he’s not a very good champion and doesn’t rate to hold the WBC belt in my view. Bellew is just a guy that the WBC allowed to fight another fighter that didn’t rate to be fighting for a world title in Makabu. I think the wrong guys were allowed to fight for the vacant WBC title last May. Heck, even if the WBC made a minor substitution by switching out Makabu for Huck, I think we’d have a different champion and a different reality.

Huck would have ABSOLUTELY decimated Bellew last May with his huge power shots if it had been him in the ring with him instead of Makabu. I think Bellew is a fine fringe level fighter, and perhaps better ranked at No.15 in the WBC’s rankings, but he would be destroyed by a quality cruiserweight like Huck. It wouldn’t be pretty. We’re talking Bellew vs. Adonis Stevenson 2.0.

For Flores, this is probably the last chance saloon for him. It’s his first attempt at a major world title after 13 years as a pro. He’s been beaten by Beibut Shumenov and Danny Green in the past in his only two attempts at fighting world class opponents. It’s definitely not good with the way that Flores was beaten by Shumenov last year.

It was a non-competitive fight. Obviously, Bellew and his promoter saw that fight and likely figured that Flores would be the perfect opponent for him to face to get a sure thing win. So instead of Bellew facing No1 contender Brieids like he was supposed to do, he’s facing No.14 Flores, who was recently soundly beaten by Shumenov. It’s sad, but so, so predictable. If Bellew loses to Flores tonight, which is definitely possible, then it would bad news for his career. Instead of Flores being finished as a major player in boxing, it would be Bellew. I’m just saying.

Prediction

Gilfoid sees Flores beating Bellew, but not getting the decision. In other words, we’re going to see Bellew win a controversial 12 round unanimous decision tonight. That’s my prediction. We’ve seen Bellew avoid two losses to Isaac Chilemba in the past while fighting at home in the UK, and I see Bellew avoiding a loss tonight in the same way against Flores. The Bellew-Flores fight is taking place in Bellew’s hometown of Liverpool, and I can’t see the judges giving more than couple of rounds to Flores. The only way Flores wins tonight is if he knockouts out Bellew, and that’s not going to happen.