Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant = 50-50 says Danny Garcia

By Boxing News - 10/31/2021 - Comments

By Sean Jones: Danny Garcia views next Saturday’s undisputed super middleweight fight between IBF champion Caleb ‘Sweethands’ Plant (21-0, 12 KOs) and WBA/WBC/WBO champion Canelo Alvarez (56-1-2, 38 KOs) as a “50-50” one.

One cause for concerns is whether Plant’s cut under his right eye will open during the fight once Canelo starts landing his shots.

For the fans that aren’t aware, Canelo hit Plant during their kickoff press conference after he repeatedly called him a “drug cheat” in reminding him and the viewers about his past positive test for the banned PED clenbuterol from 2018.

Canelo said he was upset with Plant because he called him a “mother f****er,” but many boxing fans believe it was Caleb reminding fans of Alvarez’s positive test for a banned performance-enhancing drug that caused him to react in anger.

Alvarez showing signs of slowing down

The former two-division world champion Danny ‘Swift’ is pulling for the 28-year-old Plant to win, but he still feels that it’s a pick ’em fight between the two 168-lb champions.

Image: Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant = 50-50 says Danny Garcia

Canelo, 31, and Plant are headlining next Saturday on November 6th on SHOWTIME PPV at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

Although the oddsmakers have Canelo as the betting favorite, his recent performance against Billy Joe Saunders in May cast some doubt whether he’s starting to show signs of age and the wear & tear from his two grueling battles against Gennadiy ‘GGG’ Golovkin.

Those two clashes, which many boxing fans believe Alvarez lost, took a lot out of Canelo. It’s not surprising that the Mexican star has wanted no part of a third clash with GGG after the punishment he took in those two fights, as well as the highly questionable judging done in their two Las Vegas-based fights.

In the Saunders’ fight, Canelo’s work rate was anemic, with him only capable of throwing a small number of shots in each round without needing rest breaks.

The less astute observers of the Canelo-Saunders fight likely failed to see how low Canelo’s work rate was, but it was obvious and plain to see.

Plant has the output to win

It was all  Canelo could do to throw more than 20 punches in each round, and he looked like an aging fighter that was relying on his power. That’s typical for fighters that are getting old.

When the energy starts doing due to age, they’re forced to rely on their power to win fights. We’re seeing something with 39-year-old Golovkin. He’s lost hand speed, and now is relying on his still formidable power to win.

It’s like a sun exhausting its hydrogen, where then helium is used as fuel as it goes into the red giant phase. Canelo and GGG are both relying on their power at this stage in their careers, leaving them both vulnerable to younger fighters capable of outworking them.

In Canelo’s case, it could hurt his chances of beating Plant on Saturday, considering that if he’s out-landed by 30+ punches per round, it’s going to put the judges in a bad position where they’ll have to decide whether to make the obvious choice of giving the rounds to Caleb.

Canelo vs. Plant = 50-50

“50-50, whoever wants it. I like  Plant, he’s my guy. Canelo is pound-for-pound. I wish nothing but the best for both of them,” said Danny Garcia to Fighthype on his prediction for next Saturday’s undisputed fight between Alvarez and Plant.

Yes,  Canelo vs. Plant can be viewed as a “50-50” fight, as Danny ‘Swift’ quite astutely points out.

If Plant doesn’t gas out in the later rounds, as we saw in his fight two years ago against Jose Uzcategui, he’s got a great shot at winning the fight.

With everything being equal when it comes to the scoring for the fight by the judges, Plant can definitely win if he outworks Canelo three to one.

It’s a given that Plant will outwork Canelo because there’s no chance that the Mexican star will be able to throw even half as many punches as ‘Sweethands’  in this writer’s estimation. The real question is how badly will Canelo be outworked?

If Plant outlands Canelo 3 or 4 to 1, it’s going to look bad if the judged fail to give him the victory.

The last thing Canelo needs is to win yet another controversial decision in Las Vegas, as would add to his growing reputation as a fighter that is given gift decisions left and right while fighting in that city.

Frampton picking Canelo

“Canelo is normally the guy and everybody is coming in and being respectful. ‘I’m fighting Canelo, thank you for the opportunity,'” said Carl Frampton to BT Sport Boxing on Saturday’s  Canelo vs. Plant fight.

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“This guy [Plant] is showing something different, he’s not shown him any respect at all. He’s talked about the [positive] drug test [for clenbuterol], which is a big blotch on Canelo’s career, but he [Plant] brought it up and he brought it up a lot and it’s something that definitely winds up Canelo and Eddy Reynoso as well.

“I think it’s going to be a good fight, I think Plant is going to give him a lot of problems for a while anyway in some rounds,” said Frampton. “And I just can’t see past Canelo.

“I just feel like he’s right in his prime now and probably can potentially still be improving. Some of the recent results have been massive. Plant is a good fighter, he’ll give him some issues, but I can’t see past Canelo,” said Frampton.

“Andre Ward fancies it going short in favor of Caleb Plant. I’m not so sure about that. Andre gets some wrong and I think he’s got that one wrong,” said Steve Bunce.

It’s a safe pick to go with Canelo, but if you look at the fight using your own thoughts instead of staying with the herd, you have to admit Plant has a very good chance of winning. Plant is Mayweather 2.0, and he can give Canelo fits as long as his energy holds out.

Caleb’s cut could be a problem

“In some of the clips there, you can see a little mark. I’m not saying it’s going to open up,” Bunce said about the cut under Plant’s right eye from where Canelo hit him during their kickoff press conference on September 4th.

“In all fairness, if a cut opens up an inch and a half under your right eye, you’re going to be fine. It’s just going to be bloody and gory. I really loved that press conference [last September in Los Angeles] because I really feel it builds the fight, but I really saw some things there.

“I like the way Plant was angry afterward. And I also like the slight difference in Canelo. He wasn’t quite as calm after that, as I’ve seen him,” said Bunce.

Plant’s cut is the real issue for him in this fight because it could open up early, and put him at the mercy of Canelo. If Plant’s starts bleeding, he’ll play it safe and won’t fight as effectively.

It’s obvious that for Plant to win the fight, he’s going to have to dominate Canelo like Mayweather did because if it’s reasonably close, you got to assume that Alvarez will be given the victory due to him being the A-side.