Juan Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez 2: Can Chocolatito pull off the upset?

By Boxing News - 03/08/2021 - Comments

By Allan Fox: In one of the rare times in the career of former four-division world champion Roman ‘Chocolatito’ Gonzalez, he’ll be the underdog this Saturday night against WBA super flyweight champion Juan Francisco Estrada on DAZN. There’s a lot of anticipation about this fight because it’s a match-up that has been brewing for eight years.

It’s like a giant bow being pulled back slowly for eight years, and it’ll finally be released on Saturday night with these two 115-lb warriors battling it out.

Chocolatito is 1-0 up on Estrada, having beaten him by a convincing 12 round unanimous decision in 2012. That was ages ago, and it’s debatable whether Chocolatito will have the same type of success on Saturday night, but it’s possible.

He knows how to beat Estrada, and he probably won’t have to chase him around the ring to land his shots. That would be interesting if Estrada chooses to circle the ring against Chocolatito as he did in his two fights against Srisaket Sor Rungvisai.

If WBC 115-lb champion Chocolatito (50-2, 41, fights as he did in his last two contests against Israel Gonzalez and Kal Yafai, he has an excellent chance of pulling off the upset against the favorite Estrada (41-3, 28 KOs) on Saturday, March 13th at the American Airlines Center, in Dallas, Texas.

Image: Juan Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez 2: Can Chocolatito pull off the upset?

The oddsmakers have installed the 30-year-old ‘El Gallo’ as the favorite in his rematch with Chocolatito because he performed against two common opponents in Carlos Cuadras and Srisaket Sor Rungvisai.

Estrada defeated Rungvisai by a 12 round unanimous decision in their second fight in April 2019 at the Forum in Inglewood, California. In their first fight in February 2018, Rungvisai beat Estrada by a controversial 12 round majority decision.

In contrast, Chocolatito twice between Rungvisai in 2017, although some boxing fans believe he deserved a victory in their first fight in March of that year. Rungvisai won a narrow 12 round majority decision.

Perhaps the judges gave it to the Thai fighter Rungvisai because he knocked Chocolatito down in the first round and punished him with headshots throughout the contest.

Indeed, the heavier shots that Rungvisai landed on the head of Chocolatito did a lot of damage to his face, causing it to swell up, making him look almost unrecognizable at the end of the 12 round contest.

It’s easy to see where Chocolatito made a big mistake in that fight, which was his decision to stand and trade with the bigger, stronger Thai fighter in close quarters.

Image: Juan Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez 2: Can Chocolatito pull off the upset?

Carlos Cuadras used movement to defeat Rungvisai in 2016, and Chocolatito should have followed his blueprint because it was a proven method. Estrada followed the blueprint to beat Rungvisai in 2019, but it was still very close.

In the Chocolatito-Rungvisai rematch in September 2017, Rungvisai left no doubts, knocking out Chocolatito in the fourth round after dropping him twice.

Most boxing fans would agree that Chocolatito looked like a shot fighter in his rematch with Rungvisai. You could see by the body language of Roman as he made his ring walk that he didn’t have it mentally on the night. Moreover, he didn’t show any adjustments from how he fought Rungvisai in the first fight, which is odd.

With the experience that Chocolatito has as an elite fighter, he should have fought Rungvisai differently because he clearly didn’t have the size or the power to be battling the Thai fighter in a one-on-one manner.

You have to remember that Chocolatito started his career out at light flyweight in 2005 and doesn’t possess the frame to be brawling with naturally bigger fighters like Rungvisai.

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“Chocolatito started the first fight slowly, and Estrada came out of the gate fast,” said Chris Algieri to Matchroom Boxing. “Chocolatito was able to get him on the retreat, and that should be his gameplan again.

“He’s on the front foot and slowly, methodically walks his way down, rolling shots, taking punches, and then letting his stuff go, creating angles.”